First touchdown scorer props have become increasingly popular over the years, and it’s easy to see why. They are fun wagers that tend to settle quickly unless you are locked into an old-school defensive struggle.
Below, we’ll run through our favorite first touchdown scorer props. Then, we’ll outline some strategy tips for this special type of bet, which could be helpful if you are new to this specific bet type.
So let’s start with the all-important question: who will be the first touchdown scorer tonight?
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First Touchdown Scorer: Divisional Round
Here are our favorite first touchdown picks for this slate.
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Saturday Slate
Travis Kelce More Than 0.5 First-TD Scorer (+750)
Travis Kelce hasn’t taken a snap in a game since Christmas. The Chiefs had the luxury of resting their players in Week 18 with the No. 1 seed in the AFC wrapped up. They also had the bye last week because of the No. 1 seed. Kelce scored a touchdown in his last action and two more during the 2024 season.
Nevertheless, Kelce is fresh and kicks it up in the playoffs. After scoring only five touchdowns in 15 games in the 2023 regular season, Kelce had 8.0 receptions per game, 88.8 receiving yards per game, and three receiving touchdowns in four games in the playoffs last year.
The veteran tight end has scored 19 touchdowns in 22 career playoff games. Kelce didn’t score a touchdown in his first three playoff contests. Thus, he’s scored 19 touchdowns in 19 subsequent contests. Kelce scored touchdowns in two of last year’s four playoff contests and in his six previous games.
After a long absence, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid might lean heavily on Kelce out of the gate on Saturday. According to RotoViz’s pace app, since Week 10, the Chiefs have had a 60% first-quarter pass rate, and the Texans have faced an NFL-high 68% first-quarter pass rate.
Kelce also has a favorable matchup to score the game’s first touchdown. According to Pro Football Reference, Houston was tied for the fifth-most receiving touchdowns (eight) allowed to tight ends in the regular season. Kelce is an excellent pick to score the Divisional Round’s first touchdown.
Where to play: Travis Kelce More Than 0.5 First-TD Scorer | FanDuel Sportsbook
Jahmyr Gibbs More Than 0.5 First-TD Scorer (+450)
Jahmyr Gibbs had a sensational sophomore season. He had 14.7 rush attempts per game, 83.1 rushing yards per game, 3.1 receptions per game, 30.4 receiving yards per game, and 20 touchdowns. Gibbs’s underlying and efficiency data was sparkling, too.
Among 70 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts in the regular season, Gibbs was fourth in yards per carry (5.65), tied for third in yards before contact per attempt (3.30), first in explosive run percentage (10.0%), and tied for sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.23). He also had 0.22 targets per route run, 1.85 yards per route run, 8.48 yards per target, 9.94 yards per reception, and one end zone target.
Gibbs’s chances to score the game’s first touchdown are enhanced by Detroit’s offensive tendencies and the matchup. Since Week 10, the Lions have had a 49% rush rate, and the Commanders have faced a 48% rush rate. Detroit also had a 57.0% rush rate on 114 plays inside the 10-yard line this year and 56.7% on 60 since Week 10. Additionally, the Commanders allowed 17 touchdowns to running backs in 17 games in the regular season. Finally, Gibbs scored at least one touchdown in the final five games of the regular season, seven of his last eight, and 13 of 17 overall.
Where to play: Jahmyr Gibbs More Than 0.5 First-TD Scorer | FanDuel Sportsbook
Longshot First TD Scorer
DeAndre Hopkins More Than 0.5 First-TD Scorer (+1300)
Kansas City’s first-quarter pass-first tendencies and Houston’s first-quarter pass-funnel tendencies are optimal for one of the Chiefs’ pass-catching weapons scoring a touchdown. So, while Kelce was the first featured first-touchdown scorer, DeAndre Hopkins also has an excellent chance.
Furthermore, according to the data suite at Fantasy Points, from Week 8 (when Nuk debuted for the Chiefs) through Week 17, Hopkins was first on the Chiefs in end zone targets (eight) and tied for second in receiving touchdowns (four). Nuk also has a sweet matchup. The Texans allowed the second-most receiving touchdowns (21) to wide receivers in the regular season.
Where to play: DeAndre Hopkins More Than 0.5 First-TD Scorer | FanDuel Sportsbook
Sunday Slate
Jalen Hurts More Than 0.5 First-TD Scorer (+550)
Jalen Hurts was knocked out of the December 22 game against the Commanders with a concussion. He made his return last week. Fortunately, the dual-threat quarterback came out of the game unscathed. Hurts had six rush attempts for 36 yards but zero touchdowns.
Nevertheless, avoiding a setback or another concussion will bode well for Hurts’s rushing outlook, namely his tush-push usage. Hurts had 14 rushing touchdowns in 15 games in the regular season, punching in 10 contests.
The retirement of Jason Kelce didn’t diminish the effectiveness of Hurts and the tush push. Additionally, Hurts was still routinely used in scoring territory. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Hurts had a team-high 48.7% of Philadelphia’s rush attempts inside the five-yard line when he was healthy, ahead of Saquon Barkley’s 41.5%.
According to FantasyPros, Hurts had 49 rush attempts inside the 20-yard line, 38 inside the 15-yard line, 28 inside the 10-yard line, and 19 inside the five-yard line. Hurts’s outlook to score the game’s first touchdown is also enhanced by Philadelphia’s offensive tendencies.
First, according to RotoViz’s pace app, the Eagles have had a 51% first-quarter rush rate since Week 10. Second, Philadelphia has had a 62.3% rush rate on 220 plays inside the 20-yard line and 69.1% on 94 inside the 10-yard line this season. The Eagles will likely lean on their rushing attack to open the game and in scoring territory, and Hurts can punch in a short touchdown if they get on the doorstep.
Where to play: Jalen Hurts More Than 0.5 First-TD Scorer | FanDuel Sportsbook
Derrick Henry More Than 0.5 First-TD Scorer (+430)
Derrick Henry had an exceptional season, benefiting from Lamar Jackson’s elite rushing ability. Among 72 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this year (including the playoffs), King Henry is second in rushing yards per game (117.1), second in yards per carry (6.00), third in yards before contact per attempt (3.31), 11th in yards after contact per attempt (2.69), tied for second in explosive rush percentage (8.0%), tied for 10th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.21), eighth in success rate (56.8%) on zone concepts, seventh in success rate (58.8%) on man/gap concepts, and first in touchdown rushes (18).
Henry also memorably scored the game’s first touchdown against the Bills in Week 4 on an 87-yard untouched run. The Ravens have wisely leaned on Henry and the rushing attack early in games, establishing it out of the gates. Since Week 10, they’ve had the highest first-quarter rush rate (58%). Conversely, the Bills have faced the second-highest first-quarter rush rate (52%) since Week 10. It’s a perfect stylistic fit for Henry to score the game’s first touchdown.
Baltimore is also a run-leaning team in scoring territory. On 80 plays inside the 10-yard line this year, they had a 53.8% rush rate. Finally, Henry has an adequate matchup. The Bills yielded 10 rushing touchdowns and six receiving touchdowns to running backs in the regular season.
Where to play: Derrick Henry More Than 0.5 First-TD Scorer | FanDuel Sportsbook
Longshot First TD Scorer
Dallas Goedert More Than 0.5 First-TD Scorer (+1400)
While the Eagles love their rushing attack, they could pull out a trick or swerve from their tendencies to catch the Rams off guard. Dallas Goedert has a sweet matchup, and it would make sense for the Eagles to take advantage of it. According to Pro Football Reference, the Rams allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game (64.8) to tight ends and permitted them seven tight ends. On Monday, T.J. Hockenson had five receptions for 64 yards and a touchdown, and Johnny Mundt (two receptions for 28 yards) and Josh Oliver (one reception for five yards) also chipped in.
Where to play: Dallas Goedert More Than 0.5 First-TD Scorer | FanDuel Sportsbook
Editor’s Note: Be sure to check out all of our Divisional Round content linked below.
- Divisional Round: Content Hub
- Divisional Round: Anytime TD Props
- Divisional Round: Top Player Props
- Divisional Round: Last TD Props
Where To Place First Touchdown Scorer Bets
The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your first touchdown scorer needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to first touchdown scorer bets.
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Top Sportsbooks For First TD Props
- DraftKings Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- FanDuel Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- Caesars Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- BetMGM (click here for our full review)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet Explained
Player prop bets are linked to player production instead of team production. That can make them a bit easier for beginning bettors to digest, especially those with a background in fantasy football.
Typically, most player prop bets involve wagering on whether you believe a player will go over or under a specific number in a particular category. They can include things like passing yardage, receptions, and carries.
However, you can also bet on whether or not you think a player is going to score a touchdown. These bets offer different odds for different players, with the most likely players to score getting the shortest odds
You can read all my analysis about anytime touchdown scorers here.
If those props don’t offer enough upside for you, first touchdown scorer props take things to another level. Instead of winning your bet if your player scores a touchdown at any time, they have to be the first ballcarrier to cross the goal line in a given game. There can only be one first-touchdown scorer in every contest, so it makes these props significantly harder to win.
However, that added risk comes with added upside. You’ll get a far greater payout if you roll the dice on the first touchdown scorer instead of an anytime touchdown scorer.
Do Passing Touchdowns Count For First Touchdown Scorer Props?
Just like with anytime touchdown scorer props, passing touchdowns are not included in first touchdown scorer props. If the first touchdown of a game is a passing touchdown, then whoever caught the ball would be considered the first TD scorer.
However, that doesn’t mean that quarterbacks are irrelevant in first touchdown scorer props. Quarterbacks will run for more touchdowns than you think, especially as more athletic passers enter the league seemingly every year. 23 quarterbacks ran for multiple scores last year, with Jalen Hurts leading the pack at 10. There are some familiar suspects on the list – Hurts, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray each had at least five rushing touchdowns – but you don’t need to be a great rusher to score touchdowns. Ryan Tannehill was second among quarterbacks with seven touchdowns, while noted statue Tom Brady even had two scores.
Ultimately, quarterbacks were some of the most profitable players last year in any time touchdown scorer props. If quarterbacks are scoring more rushing touchdowns than expected, it stands to reason they’d be underpriced in first-touchdown odds as well.
What Odds Should You Expect With First Touchdown Scorer Props?
This depends on what players you’re looking at, but you’re going to get significantly better odds on first touchdown props than anytime touchdown props. For example, the Rams are opening the season by hosting the Bills on Thursday Night Football. Cooper Kupp has the shortest anytime touchdown odds at -160 on FanDuel Sportsbook, but that figure increases to +600 to score the first touchdown. In general, you can expect most of the top touchdown scorers in the league to be priced between +500 and +700 to score the first touchdown of the game.
Most of the other players who are expected to be on the field will likely be around +1000. Running backs will get plenty of love in this department – especially ones who tend to carry the ball near the goal line – followed by the rest of the receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks.
Then comes the real long shots. The depth receivers, second straight tight ends, and non-rushing quarterbacks will all be priced at +2000 or greater. The less that a player is expected to be on the field, the greater the potential payout if they’re the first TD scorer.
How To Deal With The Swings
Betting on first touchdown scorer props is a lot like playing large tournaments in daily fantasy sports. Your win rate is going to be low, so you’re going to have to handle going through stretches with no wins. That can be demoralizing for bettors.
The key is to maximize your upside when you win. That allows you to survive the downswings and preserve your bankroll. If you’re upping your bets every time you hit a first touchdown prop, you’re not going to be able to survive the inevitable cold streaks. Like most things in life, discipline is key.
First TD Scorer Strategy
Just like with anytime touchdown scorer props, there is no surefire way to guarantee a win on first touchdown scorer props. That said, there are some things you can do to greatly increase your win rate.
Pay Attention To Injuries
Simply being on top of the injury report is one of the easiest ways to get value as a bettor. By knowing which players are questionable, you can often pounce on lines before the sportsbook has a chance to react.
For example, if the starting running back is questionable, I like to have some bets queued up on the backup running back. If he’s ultimately ruled out, you can potentially beat the sportsbook for tons of closing line value.
It’s not a fool-proof method, and the sportsbooks aren’t dumb. However, there are at least a few times a year when unexpected news leaves them open. Make sure you’re plugged into the news – Twitter alerts for the top news reporters are the best source – and take advantage when you can.
Defense (& Coaching) Matters
One of the most annoying things about betting on first-scorer props is that you are occasionally powerless. Only one team gets the first possession of each game, which means there’s a roughly 50/50 chance that your chosen player will start the game on the sidelines. If the opposing team goes down the field and scores, your player will have zero chance of scoring the first TD.
That’s why backing a player with a solid defense makes sense. If they can keep the opposing offense out of the end zone, it creates more chances for your player to score the first touchdown.
Additionally, knowing which coaches like to receive the ball after winning the coin toss is another way to create some value. The vast majority of coaches choose to defer at this point, but new coaches enter the league every year. Finding one who prefers to receive the ball almost guarantees they’re going to start the game on offense, which is a huge boost for first touchdown props.
Know The Goal Line Stats
Not all red zone touches are created equal. For running backs, in particular, getting the ball inside the five-yard line is a great way to rack up plenty of touchdowns.
There are some ways to exploit this. Last year, Boston Scott was the most profitable anytime TD scorer in the entire league. He had just 20 red zone touches, which put him well behind most of the top runners in the league. However, 16 of those attempts came from inside the 10-yard line, and 12 came from inside the five. Ultimately, only 10 running backs had more carries from inside the five-yard line than Scott last season.
I’m not sure who this year’s version of Scott will be, but staying on top of the numbers can help you turn a profit.
For more on how to bet on the NFL, check out some of the resources from the Props.com Betting 101 library:
- What Is A Prop Bet?
- How to Bet on the NFL
- Guide to Parlay Bets
- Guide to Same Game Parlays
- How to Win at Live Betting
- Super Bowl Squares Guide
- Best Sportsbook Bonuses