What’s better than watching a moonshot home run? Watching a slugger blast that ball into orbit and winning cash along the way! Props.com will outline the best HR props of the day in this article.
Similar to our NRFI and strikeout props, these HR prop picks will be updated every day, so be sure to check back tomorrow for the next pair of best bets to hit a home run.
Best HR Prop Sites in Virginia
Best HR Props Today: Thursday, Mar. 26
Below are the top home run props according to our daily research.
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Our opening day picks are coming soon!
In the meantime, make sure to check out this longest HR contest at Underdog. Details below:
Underdog 2025 MLBSZN Picks
Michael Toglia More Than 23.5 Homers
Michael Toglia is a masher on an upward trajectory after a modest breakout in 2024. According to FanGraphs, in 116 games and 458 plate appearances last season, Toglia swatted 25 homers with a 32.1 K%, a .218 batting average, a .456 slugging, and a .238 ISO. Toglia’s strikeout rate was high, but he did an outstanding job of managing the strike zone (26.2 O-Swing% versus 28.6% league average in 2024), and his 14.9 SwStr% in 2024 was a sizable improvement upon his 18.1 SwStr% in 2023. Toglia can continue to improve his strikeout rate.
When Toglia put the ball in play, his quality of contact was superb. In fact, he was rather unlucky last year, evidenced by his .244 expected batting average (xBA) and .503 expected slugging (xSLG) outpacing his .218 batting average and .456 slugging.
Toglia was a Statcast darling. According to Baseball Savant, among qualified hitters in 2024, Togia was 15th in barrels per plate appearances percentage (9.6 Brls/PA%), tied for fifth in barrels per batted-ball-event percentage (17.3 Brls/BBE%), tied for 31st in fly-balls/line-drives average exit velocity (95.7 MPH), 17th in hard-hit percentage (50.2% of his batted balls traveled 95-plus MPH), and 23rd in launch-angle sweet spot percentage (39.2 LA SwSp%).
Roster Resource projects Toglia to primarily hit fifth against righties this year after tallying only 176 of his 458 plate appearances (38.4%) fifth or earlier in Colorado’s lineup last year. His plate appearances can surge with a full-time role and upgraded lineup spot this season. As a result, FanGraphs Depth Charts (26 homers), ZiPS (25 homers), ZiPS Depth Charts (25 homers), ATC (24 homers), OOPSY (25 homers), and FantasyPros’ Zeile consensus projections (24 homers) project Toglia to surpass 23.5 homers this season.
Where to play: Michael Toglia More Than 23.5 Homers | Underdog
Cody Bellinger Less Than 24.5 Homers
Let’s start with the uncomfortable reason for selecting Cody Bellinger’s under for 24.5 homers. The Cubs traded Bellinger to the Yankees, and the veteran’s home ballpark is dreamy for left-handed homers. According to FantasyPros’ three-year park factor averages, Yankee Stadium has the fifth-highest park factor for left-handed home runs (1.238). Bellinger will undoubtedly hit some cheapies that leave under bettors tilted.
Nevertheless, Bellinger’s home ballpark can help him only so much. He hit 26 dongs in 2023 but fell back to Earth with only 18 in 2024. Bellinger’s 26 taters in 2023 were an outlier since his production cratered following his 2019 MVP campaign. Since 2020, he’s popped 12 round-trippers in 243 plate appearances, 10 in 350, 19 in 550, 26 in 556, and 18 in 569.
In 2,268 plate appearances since 2020, Bellinger has hit 85 homers. Thus, he’s averaged 0.0375 homers per plate appearance and 18.7 per 500 plate appearances. Even if you adjust to 600 plate appearances, Bellinger swatted only 22.5 homers per 600 plate appearances since 2020. Power hasn’t been in Bellinger’s tool belt.
Bellinger’s batted-ball data was lackluster last year, too. The lefty’s 2.60 batting average, .426 slugging, and .161 ISO exceeded his .242 xBA, .391 xSLG, and the manual calculation of his .149 xISO.
Among 252 qualified hitters last season, Bellinger was tied for 160th in barrels per plate appearance percentage (4.7 Brls/PA%), tied for 169 in barrels per batted-ball-event percentage (6.3 Barrels/BBE%), tied for 215th in fly-ball/line-drive average exit velocity (90.6 MPH), 214th in hard-hit percentage (32.9%), and tied for 164th in launch-angle sweet spot percentage (32.9 LA SwSp%). Not even Yankee Stadium can cure all that ails Bellinger’s below-average batted-ball data, making 24.5 homers a line he’s unlikely to clear this year, and FanGraphs Depth Charts (23 homers), ZiPS (20 homers), ZiPS Depth Charts (22 homers), ATC (21 homers), The BAT (22 homers), The BAT X (19 homers), OOPSY (21 homers), and Zeile Consensus Projections (21 homers) peg him for fewer than 24.5 bombs.
Where to play: Cody Bellinger Less Than 24.5 Homers | Underdog
If you’re not in a state with legal sports betting, don’t sweat it – the top legal DFS apps offer extensive menus of fantasy props, which play very similar to prop bets at online sportsbooks. Check out our overview of the best DFS apps.
More MLB Props
Best MLB Prop Bets Today – Top MLB Player Props (Daily Picks)
Where To Place MLB Home Run Bets
The sportsbooks and daily fantasy sites featured in this article offer more than enough options to satisfy your MLB player props needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to MLB player props.
You can’t go wrong with BetMGM, Caesars, and FanDuel Sportsbook when it comes to any kind of sports bet. Take a look at the following guides to see if these sportsbooks are legal in your state:
MLB DFS Pick’Em FAQ
We love the MLB DFS pick’em projections available at top-flight daily fantasy sites like Underdog and Sleeper. They offer a very similar experience to player props.
You’ll often find a lot of value and strong payouts available at legal DFS sites. These apps are also available in many states that don’t yet have legal online sports betting.
Check out our resources on these DFS pick’em sites: