NRFIs — betting on whether or not a run will score in the first inning — have become the darling of the baseball betting world this season. NRFI stands for No Runs First Inning (NRFI). The opposite, YRFI, stands for Yes Runs First Inning. These wagers are ideal for bettors who love wagers that settle quickly.
In this article, we’ll provide you with our top picks for NRFI bets for the day, based on our expert analysis and research. So, let’s look at today’s best NRFI bet and its rationale.
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Best NRFI Bets Today: Thursday, July 3
Our analysts break down the best NRFI picks and YRFI plays for today’s slate.
Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-135)
UPDATE – Bryan Woo’s start was pushed back to Friday, and Logan Evans will get the ball tonight. Since allowing a run in the first inning in his first start in the Majors on April 27, Evans has spun a scoreless first inning in six straight starts.
Evans is a monster out of the gate. The rookie righty has a 1.06 ERA, 4.32 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, 6.3 BB%, and 17.5 K% in his first time through the order.
Seth Lugo is a rock-solid pitcher, who is superb out of the gate. He has a 2.12 ERA, 3.57 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, 6.7 BB%, and 23.0 K% in his first time through the order this year and has a 2.72 ERA and 3.66 xFIP in his first time through the order as a starter in his career. Finally, Lugo has thrown a scoreless first inning in 13 of 15 starts in 2025, including in four of five starts on the road and five straight turns.
Where to play: Royals at Mariners 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs | Caesars Sportsbook
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers 1st Inning Over 0.5 Runs (-115)
Dustin May has a 4.68 ERA, 4.83 xERA, 4.32 xFIP, and 4.33 SIERA in 15 starts this season. So, he’s not a world-beater. He’s also gotten worse every month, tallying a 3.95 ERA in March/April, a 4.45 ERA in May, and a 5.67 ERA in June. May’s matchup isn’t imposing, but he could cough up a run in the first inning.
Still, Aaron Civale is more inclined to surrender a run to LA’s loaded top of their order. Civale has allowed at least one run in the first inning of half of his eight starts this year.
However, he’s coughed up at least one in the first inning of four of his five starts on the road in 2025. Civale is also a speed bump for lefties and righties, allowing a .347 wOBA to 76 left-handed batters and a .376 wOBA to 92 right-handed batters this year. The Dodgers should scratch across at least one run in the first inning tonight.
Where to play: White Sox at Dodgers 1st Inning Over 0.5 Runs | FanDuel Sportsbook
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What Is NRFI Betting?
NRFI betting is placing a bet on two baseball teams to not score in the 1st inning. This includes both the top and bottom halves of the inning. So if the visiting ball club is held scoreless through the top of the 1st inning but the home team scores in the bottom, the NRFI is a losing wager. But if both teams are held scoreless through the first inning, the NRFI is a winning bet.
What Is YRFI Betting?
YRFI betting is the opposite of NRFI betting. YRFI stands for “Yes Run First Inning.”
This bet can literally be a winner on the first pitch. For example, if the visiting club’s leadoff hitter rips a homer, the YRFI is a winning bet.
But, of course, a homer isn’t required for a winning YRFI bet. As long as a run is scored in the 1st inning by either the home or away team, the bet is a winner.
Wondering if you can use DraftKings Sportsbook in your state? Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook States guide.
How Often Does NRFI Hit?
The success rate for No Run First Inning bets is contingent on many factors, primarily those in the strategy section.
For example, first-inning NRFI wagers are likelier to hit at LoanDepot Park than Coors Field because Coors Field is more homerun-friendly. Additionally, when aces oppose one another, it’s more likely for an NRFI bet to win than when a pair of struggling pitchers face top-shelf lineups.
But, of course, these factors are all weighed by sportsbooks when setting lines. So the odds are shorter for ‘No Runs First Inning’ when elite pitchers face each other. As a result, it pays to dig deeper and factor in all of the tips highlighted in the strategy section.
Where To Place NRFI Bets
The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your NRFI bets needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NRFI bets.
On top of that, our team spent the time to find the best available bonus offers at each listed sportsbook. If you are new to any of these betting apps, be sure to use our exclusive links and promo codes to claim your free bets:
Top Sportsbooks For NRFI Bets
- FanDuel Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- Caesars Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- BetMGM (click here for our full review)
NRFI Betting Strategy Tips
There are several factors to consider for NRFI betting. The weather is one factor. For instance, a baseball carries farther in hot and humid weather, increasing the chances of a homer. Additionally, wind conditions can also impact the odds of a first inning run.
Take Park Factor Into Consideration
Ballpark factors are another integral nugget of info. FantasyPros has three-year park factors, and ESPN has same-season data gamblers can access. The odds of a run scoring in the first are the greatest in ballparks with high park factors for runs.
In addition, the odds of a round-tripper are the greatest at a homer-friendly park against a fly-ball-centric or homer-prone pitcher. Conversely, scoring a run in a pitcher-friendly park is more challenging.
Consider The Lineup
Lineup composition is a significant consideration, too. However, there are layers to this piece of info. For example, the greater the quality of hitters at the top of a lineup, the trickier it is for a pitcher to avoid surrendering a run in the first inning.
Look At Pitching Splits
The handedness of the hitters in the top slots in a lineup is essential to note. For example, is a lineup filled exclusively with righties in the top five spots and opposing a right-handed pitcher who dominates in same-handed matchups?
According to FanGraphs, in 2021, Corbin Burnes allowed the lowest wOBA (.215) to right-handed batters among qualified pitchers. Thus, righty-laden lineups would have struggled to get the better of Burnes. Conversely, Patrick Corbin coughed up the highest wOBA (.387) to righties, which would have made him an attractive pitcher to bet YRFI against even with a mediocre lineup that’s top-heavy with righties.
Look At Hitting Stats
You can find how each offense ranks by runs scored in the first inning at TeamRankings.com. This list shows you how often each team scores in the first inning. Looking at the last few seasons, the median is 28.79%.
This is a helpful list, because sometimes high-powered offenses struggle in the first inning. Consider this example from last year: The Giants rank fifth in runs per game at 4.80. So they are a good offense, right? Not when it comes to scoring in the first inning! The Giants only record a first inning run 22.73% of the time. That ranks 26th of 30 total teams.