NRFIs — betting on whether or not a run will score in the first inning — have become the darling of the baseball betting world this season. NRFI stands for No Runs First Inning (NRFI). The opposite, YRFI, stands for Yes Runs First Inning. These wagers are ideal for bettors who love wagers that settle quickly.
In this article, we’ll provide you with our top picks for NRFI bets for the day, based on our expert analysis and research. So, let’s look at today’s best NRFI bet and its rationale.
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Best NRFI Bets Today: Wednesday, Sept. 20
Giants at D-Backs NRFI (-125)
Pitchers: Logan Webb (SF) @ Merrill Kelly (ARI)
First pitch: 3:40 p.m. ET
Tuesday’s result: Winner! The Mariners and A’s didn’t score a first inning run, putting us at 79-65 while up 1.2 units this season. Let’s keep it going!
Wednesday’s pick: This is a low over/under of 7.5 total runs, and a nice spot for the NRFI. Here’s the breakdown:
- Giants RHP Logan Webb is 24-of-31 to the NRFI this season.
- D-Backs RHP Merrill Kelly is 21-of-27 to the NRFI this season.
- San Francisco ranks tied for 16th in first inning scoring rate at 28.48%.
- Webb has tossed a NRFI in all 3 starts vs. ARI.
- Webb has allowed only 6 ER in 21 IP vs. ARI this year.
Let’s lay 1.25 units to win one unit on this NRFI with the best price of -125 coming at Caesars Sportsbook.
Get those SIX outs!
Where to bet: Giants at D-Backs NRFI | -135 at Caesars Sportsbook
Previous Results
2023 NRFI Record: 79-65 | +1.20 units
Sept. 19: Mariners-As | win | +1 unit
Sept. 11: Rays-Twins | loss | -1.25
Sept. 4: Guardians-Twins | loss | -1.3 units
Sept. 2: Padres-Giants | loss | -1.25 units
Aug. 28: Guardians-Twins | win | +1 unit
Aug. 27: Guardians-Twins | win | +1 unit
Aug. 26: Guardians-Twins | win | +1 unit
Aug. 25: Marlins-Nats | loss | -1.2
Aug. 23: Twins-Brewers | loss | -1.3
Aug. 22: Blue Jays – Os | loss | -1.15
Aug. 21: Cubs-Tigers | win | +1 unit
Aug. 20: Orioles-As | loss | -1.2 unit
Aug. 19: Pirates-Twins | loss | -1.2 unit
Aug. 18: Pirates-Twins | win | +1 unit
Aug. 16: Astros-Marlins | loss | -1.2 unit
Aug. 15: Twins-Tigers | win | +1 unit
Aug. 14: Astros-Marlins | win | +1 unit
Aug. 13: Marlins-Yankees | win | +1 unit
Aug. 11: Reds-Pirates | loss| -1 unit
Aug. 8: Tigers-Twins | loss | -1.2
Aug. 7: Tigers-Twins | loss | -1.15
Aug. 6: Giants-Athletics | loss | -1.25
Aug. 5: Giants-Athletics | win | +1 unit
Aug. 4: Marlins-Rangers | loss | -1.15 unit
Aug 3: Marlins-Phils | win + 1unit
July 31: Mariners-Red Sox | loss | -1.25
Jul 30: Marlins-Tigers | win | +1 unit
July 29: Marlins-Tigers | win | +1 unit
July 28: Twins at Royals | win | +1 unit
July 27: Guardians at White Sox | loss | -1.15
July 26: Mariners at Twins | loss | -1.15
July 25: Mariners at Twins | loss | -1.35
July 23: White Sox at Twins | loss | -1.2 unit
July 22: White Sox at Twins | win | +1 unit
July 20: Twins at Mariners | loss | -1.3
July 19: Twins at Mariners | win | +1 unit
July 18: Guardians at Pirates | loss | -1.2
July 17: Twins at Mariners | win | +1 unit
July 16: Marlins at Orioles | loss | -1.15 unit
July 15: Giants at Pirates | win | +1 unit
July 14: Marlins at Orioles | win | +1 unit
July 9: Phillies at Marlins | loss | -1.3 units
July 8: Orioles at Twins | loss | -1.25 unit
July 7: Orioles at Twins | win | +1 unit
July 6: Cubs at Brewers | win | +1 unit
July 5: Royals at Twins | loss | -1.1 units
July 4: A’s at Tigers | win | +1 unit
July 3: Royals at Twins | loss | -1.25 units
July 2: Rays at Mariners | loss | -1.25 unit
July 1: Guardians at Cubs | win | +1 unit
June 30: Twins at Orioles | loss | -1.1
June 29: Marlins at Red Sox | win | +1 unit
June 28: Padres at Pirates | loss | -1.25
June 27: Marlins at Red Sox | loss | -1.2 unit
June 26: White Sox at Angels | loss | -1.2 units
June 25: Pirates at Marlins | win | +1 unit
June 24: Twins at Tigers | win | +1 unit
June 23: Pirates at Marlins | loss | -1.4 unit
June 22: Pirates at Marlins | win | +1 unit
June 21: Red Sox at Twins | loss | -1.15 unit
June 20: Red Sox at Twins | win | +1 unit
June 19: Red Sox at Twins | win | +1 unit
June 17: Guardians-DBacks | loss | -1.1 unit
June 16: Nats-Marlins | loss | -1.1 unit
June 15: Tigers-Twins | win | +1 unit
June 14: Marlins-Mariners | win | +1 unit
June 13: Yankees-Mets | loss | -1.4 unit
June 12: Marlins-Mariners | loss | -1.3 unit
June 11: White Sox-Marlins | win | +1 unit
June 10: White Sox-Marlins | win | +1 unit
June 9: Cubs-Giants | win | +1 unit
June 8: Cubs-Angels | win | +1 unit
June 7: Mariners-Padres | win | +1 unit
June 6: Royals-Marlins | win | +1 unit
June 5: Pirates-A’s | loss | -1.1 unit
June 4: Guardians-Twins | win | +1 unit
June 3: Guardians-Twins | loss | -1.3 unit
June 2: Orioles-Giants | loss | -1.2 unit
June 1: Padres-Marlins | win | +1 unit
May 31: Padres-Marlins | win | +1 unit
May 30: Padres-Marlins | win | +1 unit
May 29: Twins-Astros | win | +1 unit
May 28: Padres-Yankees | loss | -1.3 units
May 27: Marlins-Angels | loss | -1.4 unit
May 26: Marlins-Angels | win | +1 unit
May 25: A’s-Mariners | loss | -1.2 unit
May 24: Mets-Cubs | win | +1 unit
May 23: Giants-Twins | loss | -1.2 units
May 22: Giants-Twins | loss | -1.1 unit
May 21: Marlins-Giants | loss | -1.25 units
May 20: Marlins-Giants | win | +1 unit
May 19: Marlins-Giants | win | +1 unit
May 18: Guardians-White Sox | win | +1 unit
May 17: Nats-Marlins | win | +1 unit
May 16: Nats-Marlins | win | +1 unit
May 15: Twins-Dodgers | loss | -1.15 units
May 14: Twins-Cubs | loss | -1.30 unit
May 13: D’Backs-Giants | loss | -1.25
May 12: Twins-Cubs | win | +1 unit
May 11: Twins-Padres | loss | -1.25 units
May 10: Marlins-D’Backs | win | +1 unit
May 9: Astros-Angels | win | +1 unit
May 8: Marlins-D’Backs | win | +1 unit
May 7: Twins-Guardians | loss | -1.2 unit
May 6: Twins-Guardians | win | +1 unit
May 5: Astros-Mariners | win | +1 unit
May 4: Braves-Marlins | loss | -1.15 units
May 3: Braves-Marlins | win | +1 unit
May 2: Braves-Marlins | win | +1 unit
May 1: Cubs-Nats | loss | -1.15
Apr. 30: Royals-Twins | win | +1 unit
Apr. 29: Orioles-Tigers | win | +1 unit
Apr. 28: Cubs-Marlins | win | +1 unit
Apr. 27: Rays-White Sox | win | +1 unit
Apr. 26: Marlins-Braves | win | +1 unit
Apr. 25: Padres-Cubs | win | +1 unit
Apr. 24: Cards-Giants | win | +1 unit
Apr. 23: Marlins-Guardians | win | +1 unit
Apr. 22: Mets-Giants | loss | -1.25 unit
Apr. 21: Mets-Giants | win | +1 unit
Apr. 20: Mets-Giants | win | +1 unit
Apr. 19: Cubs-A’s | win | +1 unit
Apr. 18: Giants-Marlins | loss | -1.3 unit
Apr. 16: Giants-Marlins | win | +1 unit
Apr. 15: Pirates-Cardinals | loss | -1.2 unit
Apr. 14: Guardians-Nationals | win | +1 unit
Apr. 13: Phillies-Reds NRFI | loss | -1.05
Apr. 12: Marlins-Phillies NRFI | win | +1 unit
Apr. 11: Brewers-DBacks NRFI | win | +1 unit
Apr. 10: A’s-Orioles NRFI | loss | -1.25 unit
Apr. 9: A’s-Rays NRFI | loss | -1.2 unit
Apr. 8: Royals-Giants NRFI | win | +1 unit
Apr. 7: Royals-Giants NRFI | win | +1 unit
Apr. 6: Padres-Braves NRFI | loss | -1.2 units
Apr. 4: Guardians-A’s NRFI | win | +1 unit
Apr. 3: Guardians-A’s NRFI | loss | -1.3 unit
Apr. 2: Guardians-Mariners NRFI | loss | -1.25 unit
Apr. 1: Twins-Royals NRFI | loss | -1.2 unit
Mar. 31: Mets-Marlins NRFI | win | +1 unit
Mar. 30: Brewers-Cubs NRFI | win | +1 unit
What Is NRFI Betting?
NRFI betting is placing a bet on two baseball teams to not score in the 1st inning. This includes both the top and bottom halves of the inning. So if the visiting ball club is held scoreless through the top of the 1st inning but the home team scores in the bottom, the NRFI is a losing wager. But if both teams are held scoreless through the first inning, the NRFI is a winning bet.
What Is YRFI Betting?
YRFI betting is the opposite of NRFI betting. YRFI stands for “Yes Run First Inning.”
This bet can literally be a winner on the first pitch. For example, if the visiting club’s leadoff hitter rips a homer, the YRFI is a winning bet.
But, of course, a homer isn’t required for a winning YRFI bet. As long as a run is scored in the 1st inning by either the home or away team, the bet is a winner.
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How Often Does NRFI Hit?
The success rate for No Run First Inning bets is contingent on many factors, primarily those in the strategy section.
For example, first-inning NRFI wagers are likelier to hit at LoanDepot park than Coors Field because Coors field is more homerun friendly. Additionally, when aces oppose one another, it’s more likely for an NRFI bet to win than when a pair of struggling pitchers face top-shelf lineups.
But, of course, these factors are all weighed by sportsbooks when setting lines. So the odds are shorter for ‘No Runs First Inning’ when elite pitchers face each other. As a result, it pays to dig deeper and factor in all of the tips highlighted in the strategy section.
Where To Place NRFI Bets
The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your NRFI bets needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NRFI bets.
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NRFI Betting Strategy Tips
There are several factors to consider for NRFI betting. The weather is one factor. For instance, a baseball carries farther in hot and humid weather, increasing the chances of a homer. Additionally, wind conditions can also impact the odds of a first inning run.
Take Park Factor Into Consideration
Ballpark factors are another integral nugget of info. FantasyPros has three-year park factors, and ESPN has same-season data gamblers can access. The odds of a run scoring in the first are the greatest in ballparks with high park factors for runs.
In addition, the odds of a round-tripper are the greatest at a homer-friendly park against a fly-ball-centric or homer-prone pitcher. Conversely, scoring a run in a pitcher-friendly park is more challenging.
Consider The Lineup
Lineup composition is a significant consideration, too. However, there are layers to this piece of info. For example, the greater the quality of hitters at the top of a lineup, the trickier it is for a pitcher to avoid surrendering a run in the first inning.
Look At Pitching Splits
The handedness of the hitters in the top slots in a lineup is essential to note. For example, is a lineup filled exclusively with righties in the top five spots and opposing a right-handed pitcher who dominates in same-handed matchups?
According to FanGraphs, in 2021, Corbin Burnes allowed the lowest wOBA (.215) to right-handed batters among qualified pitchers. Thus, righty-laden lineups would have struggled to get the better of Burnes. Conversely, Patrick Corbin coughed up the highest wOBA (.387) to righties, which would have made him an attractive pitcher to bet YRFI against even with a mediocre lineup that’s top-heavy with righties.
Look At Hitting Stats
You can find how each offense ranks by runs scored in the first inning at TeamRankings.com. This list shows you how often each team scores in the first inning. Looking at the last few seasons, the median is 28.79%.
This is a helpful list, because sometimes high-powered offenses struggle in the first inning. Consider this example from last year: The Giants rank fifth in runs per game at 4.80. So they are a good offense, right? Not when it comes to scoring in the first inning! The Giants only record a first inning run 22.73% of the time. That ranks 26th of 30 total teams.
