NRFIs — betting on whether or not a run will score in the first inning — have become the darling of the baseball betting world this season. NRFI stands for No Runs First Inning (NRFI). The opposite, YRFI, stands for Yes Runs First Inning. These wagers are ideal for bettors who love wagers that settle quickly.
In this article, we’ll provide you with our top picks for NRFI bets for the day, based on our expert analysis and research. So, let’s look at today’s best NRFI bet and its rationale.
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Best NRFI Bets Today: Monday, June 16
Our analysts break down the best NRFI picks and YRFI plays from today’s slate.
Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals 1st Inning Over 0.5 Runs (-113)
One inexperienced and relatively unsteady starting pitcher in Carson Palmquist faces off with a veteran right-hander that’s starting to experience some expected regression in Jake Irvin to kick off this NL series, laying the foundation for a YRFI bet.
Palmquist has an 0-4 record, 7.77 ERA and 1.82 WHIP across his first five career starts, although he’s been a bit better over his last three trips to the mound. However, the left-hander also has a .523 xSLG, .381 xwOBA and 5.78 xERA, so his struggles are legitimate and haven’t been just limited to Coors Field (0-3, 7.24 ERA, 1.39 WHIP on the road).
Palmquist has also allowed a .316 average and .792 OPS in the first inning, and although he’ll likely face at least two lefty bats in C.J. Abrams and James Wood in the first, both players, especially Wood, are capable in same-handed matchups. They also typically bookend No. 2 hitter Amed Rosario, who went into Sunday’s action with a .302 average and .841 OPS against southpaws.
Irvin is also starting to show some cracks, as he’s pitched to a 7.80 ERA, 1.93 WHIP and 1.8 HR/9 over the last three starts. He’s also surrendering a career-high 12.9% barrel rate overall and has a .528 xSLG, .370 xwOBA and 5.39 xERA, making his overall secondary metrics about as worrisome as Palmquist’s.
Colorado isn’t a daunting road offense overall but did just put up 10 runs in Atlanta on Sunday, and Irvin’s recent form also makes it possible he makes at least one costly mistake in a park where YRFI bets are 20-17.
Where to play: Rockies at Nationals Over 0.5 Runs | FanDuel Sportsbook
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-104)
Zach Eflin and Ryan Pepiot, two solid right-handers with nine wins between them, will do battle in this AL East series opener, and there are reasons to have some fath in backing an NRFI bet. Eflin complements his 6-2 record with a 4.08 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, and both his .304 xwOBA and 3.46 xERA support the notion he’s been even better than his already respectable ERA suggests.
Eflin also has a .229 BAA in the first inning, and although he’s five earned runs in that split as well, the majority of the damage has come on three mistake pitches that have resulted in home runs. He’s admittedly in a dangerous park in that regard Monday, but Tampa Bay’s expected top third of the lineup – Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe and Yandy Diaz – are a combined 3-for-14 with six strikeouts against Eflin in their career.
Pepiot’s 3-6 record is belied by a 3.31 ERA, and despite having been saddled with a highly elevated .400 BABIP in his 14 first innings, he’s still pitched to a 3.21 ERA in the opening frame, thanks in part to his .217 BAA with runners in scoring position and .139 BAA in high-leverage situations.
The Orioles are averaging just 0.37 runs per first inning per road game and well under a HR per away contest (0.86) as well, furthering the case for NRFI to hit.
Where to play: Orioles at Rays Under 0.5 Runs | FanDuel Sportsbook
Houston Astros at Athletics 1st Inning Over 0.5 Runs (TBD)
Lance McCullers and JP Sears certainly have the ability to turn in a quality start any time they take the hill, but the two vets, who each come in with some unsightly numbers, could have an uphill battle to avoiding early trouble Monday night.
UPDATE: McCullers has been placed on the IL. Ryan Gusto will start tonight instead.
McCullers has a 4.91 ERA and 1.43 WHIP through his seven starts, and although he’s yet to be scored upon in 13.2 road innings, he’s allowing a career-high 10.4% barrel rate. Additionally, he’s facing a feisty Athletics team that’s averaging an AL-high 1.0 run per first inning at home, a park where YRFI bets are 21-14 overall.
Sears has his own troubles, as evidenced by a 5.08 ERA and .466 xSLG, as well as a 43.2% hard-hit rate that’s the second highest of his career. The veteran southpaw has also surrendered a .290 average and .793 OPS to current Houston bats over 96 career encounters, a sample where 11 of the 27 hits he’s conceded have gone for extra bases.
Houston also has a .770 OPS, .340 wOBA and tiny 12.1% strikeout rate against lefties on the road in the last month, and two of the hitters Sears is projected to face in the opening frame, Jeremy Pena and Jose Altuve, have gone a combined 16-for-45 (.356) with four doubles, three homers and nine RBI against him in their career.
Where to play: Astros at Athletics 1st Inning Over 0.5 Runs | FanDuel Sportsbook
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What Is NRFI Betting?
NRFI betting is placing a bet on two baseball teams to not score in the 1st inning. This includes both the top and bottom halves of the inning. So if the visiting ball club is held scoreless through the top of the 1st inning but the home team scores in the bottom, the NRFI is a losing wager. But if both teams are held scoreless through the first inning, the NRFI is a winning bet.
What Is YRFI Betting?
YRFI betting is the opposite of NRFI betting. YRFI stands for “Yes Run First Inning.”
This bet can literally be a winner on the first pitch. For example, if the visiting club’s leadoff hitter rips a homer, the YRFI is a winning bet.
But, of course, a homer isn’t required for a winning YRFI bet. As long as a run is scored in the 1st inning by either the home or away team, the bet is a winner.
Wondering if you can use DraftKings Sportsbook in your state? Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook States guide.
How Often Does NRFI Hit?
The success rate for No Run First Inning bets is contingent on many factors, primarily those in the strategy section.
For example, first-inning NRFI wagers are likelier to hit at LoanDepot Park than Coors Field because Coors Field is more homerun-friendly. Additionally, when aces oppose one another, it’s more likely for an NRFI bet to win than when a pair of struggling pitchers face top-shelf lineups.
But, of course, these factors are all weighed by sportsbooks when setting lines. So the odds are shorter for ‘No Runs First Inning’ when elite pitchers face each other. As a result, it pays to dig deeper and factor in all of the tips highlighted in the strategy section.
Where To Place NRFI Bets
The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your NRFI bets needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NRFI bets.
On top of that, our team spent the time to find the best available bonus offers at each listed sportsbook. If you are new to any of these betting apps, be sure to use our exclusive links and promo codes to claim your free bets:
Top Sportsbooks For NRFI Bets
- FanDuel Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- Caesars Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- BetMGM (click here for our full review)
NRFI Betting Strategy Tips
There are several factors to consider for NRFI betting. The weather is one factor. For instance, a baseball carries farther in hot and humid weather, increasing the chances of a homer. Additionally, wind conditions can also impact the odds of a first inning run.
Take Park Factor Into Consideration
Ballpark factors are another integral nugget of info. FantasyPros has three-year park factors, and ESPN has same-season data gamblers can access. The odds of a run scoring in the first are the greatest in ballparks with high park factors for runs.
In addition, the odds of a round-tripper are the greatest at a homer-friendly park against a fly-ball-centric or homer-prone pitcher. Conversely, scoring a run in a pitcher-friendly park is more challenging.
Consider The Lineup
Lineup composition is a significant consideration, too. However, there are layers to this piece of info. For example, the greater the quality of hitters at the top of a lineup, the trickier it is for a pitcher to avoid surrendering a run in the first inning.
Look At Pitching Splits
The handedness of the hitters in the top slots in a lineup is essential to note. For example, is a lineup filled exclusively with righties in the top five spots and opposing a right-handed pitcher who dominates in same-handed matchups?
According to FanGraphs, in 2021, Corbin Burnes allowed the lowest wOBA (.215) to right-handed batters among qualified pitchers. Thus, righty-laden lineups would have struggled to get the better of Burnes. Conversely, Patrick Corbin coughed up the highest wOBA (.387) to righties, which would have made him an attractive pitcher to bet YRFI against even with a mediocre lineup that’s top-heavy with righties.
Look At Hitting Stats
You can find how each offense ranks by runs scored in the first inning at TeamRankings.com. This list shows you how often each team scores in the first inning. Looking at the last few seasons, the median is 28.79%.
This is a helpful list, because sometimes high-powered offenses struggle in the first inning. Consider this example from last year: The Giants rank fifth in runs per game at 4.80. So they are a good offense, right? Not when it comes to scoring in the first inning! The Giants only record a first inning run 22.73% of the time. That ranks 26th of 30 total teams.