Best NRFI Bets Today – Top No Run First Inning Props (Daily Picks)

NRFIs — betting on whether or not a run will score in the first inning — have become the darling of the baseball betting world this season. NRFI stands for No Runs First Inning (NRFI). The opposite, YRFI, stands for Yes Runs First Inning. These wagers are ideal for bettors who love wagers that settle quickly.

Let’s look at today’s best NRFI (or YRFI) bet and the rationale behind it.

Best NRFI Bets Today: Tuesday, Oct. 11

Phillies at Braves NRFI

Bet: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (NRFI)
Odds: -136 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Pitchers: R.Suarez (PHI) @ M.Fried (ATL)
First pitch: 1:07 pm ET

Saturday Recap: We took the Padres-Mets NRFI on Saturday. It didn’t go great. Our postseason record drops to 1-1 so far. Let’s get back on track with four Tuesday playoff games!

Tuesday’s NRFI Bet: We have a decent price for this NRFI bet between the Braves and Phillies. Here’s the breakdown:

• Braves SP Max Fried has not allowed a 1st inning run in 28-of-30 starts.
• Phillies SP Ranger Suarez has not allowed a 1st inning run in 21-of-27 starts. He’s 12-of-15 on the road.
• ATL scores a first inning run 25.31% of the time. That ranks 23rd in MLB.
• PHI scores a first inning run 20.48% of the time on the road. That ranks 27th in MLB.
• ATL’s first three hitters are 10-40 (.250) with 3 xbh lifetime off Suarez.

You can find the best price for this one (-136) at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Get those six outs!

The Bet: Phillies at Braves Under 0.5 First Inning Runs | -136 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Previous Results

Playoffs: 1-1 | -0.6 unit

Regular Season: 59-46 | -0.79 units

More MLB Props

Best MLB Prop Bets Today – Top MLB Player Props (Daily Picks)

What Is NRFI Betting?

NRFI betting is placing a bet on two baseball teams to not score in the 1st inning. This includes both the top and bottom halves of the inning. So if the visiting ball club is held scoreless through the top of the 1st inning but the home team scores in the bottom, the NRFI is a losing wager. But if both teams are held scoreless through the first inning, the NRFI is a winning bet.

What Is YRFI Betting?

YRFI betting is the opposite of NRFI betting. YRFI stands for “Yes Run First Inning.”

This bet can literally be a winner on the first pitch. For example, if the visiting club’s leadoff hitter rips a homer, the YRFI is a winning bet.

But, of course, a homer isn’t required for a winning YRFI bet. As long as a run is scored in the 1st inning by either the home or away team, the bet is a winner.

How Often Does NRFI Hit?

The success rate for No Run First Inning bets is contingent on many factors, primarily those in the strategy section.

For example, first-inning NRFI wagers are likelier to hit at LoanDepot park than Coors Field because Coors field is more homerun friendly. Additionally, when aces oppose one another, it’s more likely for an NRFI bet to win than when a pair of struggling pitchers face top-shelf lineups.

But, of course, these factors are all weighed by sportsbooks when setting lines. So the odds are shorter for ‘No Runs First Inning’ when elite pitchers face each other. As a result, it pays to dig deeper and factor in all of the tips highlighted in the strategy section.

Is There More Value On YRFI?

The short answer is yes. If we have two average pitchers in a neutral park environment going against a pair of average offenses, then there’s a 50.79% chance a run scores in the first frame. That’s considering data over the past four years. Credit to @capjack2000 on Twitter for this information.

Using those stats, you can take the inverse and multiply it by itself to find the odds that neither team scores:
.7015 * .7015 = 49.21%

So the odds of NFRI are already the underdog on average. Yet, they're typically offered as the favorite.

However, it doesn't stop there.

— Captain Jack Andrews (@capjack2000) April 9, 2022

Why is this the case? The first inning has the highest scoring potential of any inning. Typically, you will see the best hitters from both teams in the first.

Of course, there are plenty of variables within that. Still, according to the baseline numbers, the value is tilted towards YRFI when all other things are equal.

Where To Place NRFI Bets

The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your NRFI bets needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NRFI bets.

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NRFI Betting Strategy Tips

There are several factors to consider for NRFI betting. The weather is one factor. For instance, a baseball carries farther in hot and humid weather, increasing the chances of a homer. Additionally, wind conditions can also impact the odds of a first inning run.

Take Park Factor Into Consideration

Ballpark factors are another integral nugget of info. FantasyPros has three-year park factors, and ESPN has same-season data gamblers can access. The odds of a run scoring in the first are the greatest in ballparks with high park factors for runs. In addition, the odds of a round-tripper are the greatest at a homer-friendly park against a fly-ball-centric or homer-prone pitcher. Conversely, scoring a run in a pitcher-friendly park is more challenging.

Consider The Lineup

Lineup composition is a significant consideration, too. However, there are layers to this piece of info. For example, the greater the quality of hitters at the top of a lineup, the trickier it is for a pitcher to avoid surrendering a run in the first inning.

Look At Pitching Splits

The handedness of the hitters in the top slots in a lineup is essential to note. For example, is a lineup filled exclusively with righties in the top five spots and opposing a right-handed pitcher who dominates in same-handed matchups? According to FanGraphs, in 2021, Corbin Burnes allowed the lowest wOBA (.215) to right-handed batters among qualified pitchers. Thus, righty-laden lineups would have struggled to get the better of Burnes. Conversely, Patrick Corbin coughed up the highest wOBA (.387) to righties, which would have made him an attractive pitcher to bet YRFI against even with a mediocre lineup that’s top-heavy with righties.

Look At Hitting Stats

You can find how each offense ranks by runs scored in the first inning at TeamRankings.com. This list shows you how often each team scores in the first inning. In the middle of the 2022 season, the median is 28.79%.

This is a helpful list, because sometimes high-powered offenses struggle in the first inning. Consider this example from June 2022: The Giants rank fifth in runs per game at 4.80. So they are a good offense, right? Not when it comes to scoring in the first inning! The Giants only record a first inning run 22.73% of the time. That ranks 26th of 30 total teams.