NRFIs — betting on whether or not a run will score in the first inning — have become the darling of the baseball betting world this season. NRFI stands for No Runs First Inning (NRFI). The opposite, YRFI, stands for Yes Runs First Inning. These wagers are ideal for bettors who love wagers that settle quickly.
In this article, we’ll provide you with our top picks for NRFI bets for the day, based on our expert analysis and research. So, let’s look at today’s best NRFI (or YRFI) bet and its rationale.
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Best NRFI Bets Today: Monday, May 29
Twins at Astros NRFI (-120)
Pitchers: Sonny Gray (MIN) @ J.P. France (HOU)Â
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Sunday’s result: We dropped Sunday’s NRFI between the Padres and Yankees, but we are still at 35-24 on the season while up 6.9 units. Let’s get one back on Monday!
Monday’s pick: We have a top-shelf NRFI pitcher with the ability to shut down Houston’s offense and a struggling Twins lineup on the road. Here’s the full breakdown:
- Twins RHP Sonny Gray is 9-of-10 to the NRFI this season.
- Astros RHP J.P. France is 3-of-4 to the NRFI this season.
- France has allowed one or fewer earned runs in 3-of-4 starts this season.
- Gray has a sparkling 1.82 ERA on the season.
- Houston ranks 7th in first inning scoring rate at 36.54%.
- Minnesota ranks 22nd in first inning scoring rate at 28.3%. The Twins are worse on the road at 24%.
The Astros have a strong offense, but Gray is more than capable of getting through the first inning unscathed.
Let’s lay 1.20 units to win one unit on this NRFI with the best price of -120 coming at Caesars Sportsbook.
Get those SIX outs!
Where to bet: Twins-Astros NRFI | -120 at Caesars Sportsbook
Previous Results
2023 NRFI Record: 35-24 | +6.9 units
May 28: Padres-Yankees | loss | -1.3 units
May 27: Marlins-Angels | loss | -1.4 unit
May 26: Marlins-Angels | win | +1 unit
May 25: A’s-Mariners | loss | -1.2 unit
May 24: Mets-Cubs | win | +1 unit
May 23: Giants-Twins | loss | -1.2 units
May 22: Giants-Twins | loss | -1.1 unit
May 21: Marlins-Giants | loss | -1.25 units
May 20: Marlins-Giants | win | +1 unit
May 19: Marlins-Giants | win | +1 unit
May 18: Guardians-White Sox | win | +1 unit
May 17: Nats-Marlins | win | +1 unit
May 16: Nats-Marlins | win | +1 unit
May 15: Twins-Dodgers | loss | -1.15 units
May 14: Twins-Cubs | loss | -1.30 unit
May 13: D’Backs-Giants | loss | -1.25
May 12: Twins-Cubs | win | +1 unit
May 11: Twins-Padres | loss | -1.25 units
May 10: Marlins-D’Backs | win | +1 unit
May 9: Astros-Angels | win | +1 unit
May 8: Marlins-D’Backs | win | +1 unit
May 7: Twins-Guardians | loss | -1.2 unit
May 6: Twins-Guardians | win | +1 unit
May 5: Astros-Mariners | win | +1 unit
May 4: Braves-Marlins | loss | -1.15 units
May 3: Braves-Marlins | win | +1 unit
May 2: Braves-Marlins | win | +1 unit
May 1: Cubs-Nats | loss | -1.15
Apr. 30: Royals-Twins | win | +1 unit
Apr. 29: Orioles-Tigers | win | +1 unit
Apr. 28: Cubs-Marlins | win | +1 unit
Apr. 27: Rays-White Sox | win | +1 unit
Apr. 26: Marlins-Braves | win | +1 unit
Apr. 25: Padres-Cubs | win | +1 unit
Apr. 24: Cards-Giants | win | +1 unit
Apr. 23: Marlins-Guardians | win | +1 unit
Apr. 22: Mets-Giants | loss | -1.25 unit
Apr. 21: Mets-Giants | win | +1 unit
Apr. 20: Mets-Giants | win | +1 unit
Apr. 19: Cubs-A’s | win | +1 unit
Apr. 18: Giants-Marlins | loss | -1.3 unit
Apr. 16: Giants-Marlins | win | +1 unit
Apr. 15: Pirates-Cardinals | loss | -1.2 unit
Apr. 14: Guardians-Nationals | win | +1 unit
Apr. 13: Phillies-Reds NRFI | loss | -1.05
Apr. 12: Marlins-Phillies NRFI | win | +1 unit
Apr. 11: Brewers-DBacks NRFI | win | +1 unit
Apr. 10: A’s-Orioles NRFI | loss | -1.25 unit
Apr. 9: A’s-Rays NRFI | loss | -1.2 unit
Apr. 8: Royals-Giants NRFI | win | +1 unit
Apr. 7: Royals-Giants NRFI | win | +1 unit
Apr. 6: Padres-Braves NRFI | loss | -1.2 units
Apr. 4: Guardians-A’s NRFI | win | +1 unit
Apr. 3: Guardians-A’s NRFI | loss | -1.3 unit
Apr. 2: Guardians-Mariners NRFI | loss | -1.25 unit
Apr. 1: Twins-Royals NRFI | loss | -1.2 unit
Mar. 31: Mets-Marlins NRFI | win | +1 unit
Mar. 30: Brewers-Cubs NRFI | win | +1 unit
What Is NRFI Betting?
NRFI betting is placing a bet on two baseball teams to not score in the 1st inning. This includes both the top and bottom halves of the inning. So if the visiting ball club is held scoreless through the top of the 1st inning but the home team scores in the bottom, the NRFI is a losing wager. But if both teams are held scoreless through the first inning, the NRFI is a winning bet.
What Is YRFI Betting?
YRFI betting is the opposite of NRFI betting. YRFI stands for “Yes Run First Inning.”
This bet can literally be a winner on the first pitch. For example, if the visiting club’s leadoff hitter rips a homer, the YRFI is a winning bet.
But, of course, a homer isn’t required for a winning YRFI bet. As long as a run is scored in the 1st inning by either the home or away team, the bet is a winner.
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How Often Does NRFI Hit?
The success rate for No Run First Inning bets is contingent on many factors, primarily those in the strategy section.
For example, first-inning NRFI wagers are likelier to hit at LoanDepot park than Coors Field because Coors field is more homerun friendly. Additionally, when aces oppose one another, it’s more likely for an NRFI bet to win than when a pair of struggling pitchers face top-shelf lineups.
But, of course, these factors are all weighed by sportsbooks when setting lines. So the odds are shorter for ‘No Runs First Inning’ when elite pitchers face each other. As a result, it pays to dig deeper and factor in all of the tips highlighted in the strategy section.
Where To Place NRFI Bets
The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your NRFI bets needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NRFI bets.
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NRFI Betting Strategy Tips
There are several factors to consider for NRFI betting. The weather is one factor. For instance, a baseball carries farther in hot and humid weather, increasing the chances of a homer. Additionally, wind conditions can also impact the odds of a first inning run.
Take Park Factor Into Consideration
Ballpark factors are another integral nugget of info. FantasyPros has three-year park factors, and ESPN has same-season data gamblers can access. The odds of a run scoring in the first are the greatest in ballparks with high park factors for runs. In addition, the odds of a round-tripper are the greatest at a homer-friendly park against a fly-ball-centric or homer-prone pitcher. Conversely, scoring a run in a pitcher-friendly park is more challenging.
Consider The Lineup
Lineup composition is a significant consideration, too. However, there are layers to this piece of info. For example, the greater the quality of hitters at the top of a lineup, the trickier it is for a pitcher to avoid surrendering a run in the first inning.
Look At Pitching Splits
The handedness of the hitters in the top slots in a lineup is essential to note. For example, is a lineup filled exclusively with righties in the top five spots and opposing a right-handed pitcher who dominates in same-handed matchups? According to FanGraphs, in 2021, Corbin Burnes allowed the lowest wOBA (.215) to right-handed batters among qualified pitchers. Thus, righty-laden lineups would have struggled to get the better of Burnes. Conversely, Patrick Corbin coughed up the highest wOBA (.387) to righties, which would have made him an attractive pitcher to bet YRFI against even with a mediocre lineup that’s top-heavy with righties.
Look At Hitting Stats
You can find how each offense ranks by runs scored in the first inning at TeamRankings.com. This list shows you how often each team scores in the first inning. In the middle of the 2022 season, the median is 28.79%.
This is a helpful list, because sometimes high-powered offenses struggle in the first inning. Consider this example from June 2022: The Giants rank fifth in runs per game at 4.80. So they are a good offense, right? Not when it comes to scoring in the first inning! The Giants only record a first inning run 22.73% of the time. That ranks 26th of 30 total teams.
