Each week, the Props crew takes a look at the upcoming NASCAR slate from a props perspective. Further below you’ll also find some key NASCAR DFS and betting advice that may help you become a sharper NASCAR player.
Which drivers should we be targeting with our NASCAR picks each week, and why? Find out below.
Best NASCAR Props Today – Weekly Picks & Analysis
Looking for the sharpest Emilia Romagna Grand Prix prop bets? Our Props team has circled their favorite F1 picks for Sunday’s showdown.
Let’s dive into the top value plays ahead of lights out at Autodromo Internazionale Enzo e Dino Ferrari.
Oscar Piastri Podium Finish
Winning the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix at the Autodromo Internazionale Enzo e Dino Ferrari—commonly known as Imola—requires a masterful blend of precision driving, strategic acumen, and adaptability to the circuit’s unique challenges. This 4.909 km (3.05 mi) anti-clockwise track is renowned for its technical complexity, featuring a mix of high-speed straights, flowing corners, and tight chicanes that demand unwavering concentration and car control.
Key sections like the Variante Tamburello, Acque Minerali, and Rivazza test a driver’s braking accuracy and cornering finesse. Overtaking opportunities are limited, making qualifying position and pit stop strategy crucial for success.
The circuit’s undulating terrain and old-school layout, with minimal runoff areas, leave little room for error, punishing even minor mistakes. Success at Imola hinges on a driver’s ability to maintain rhythm and consistency while teams must fine-tune their setups to balance aerodynamic efficiency with mechanical grip, ensuring optimal performance throughout the race.
Max Verstappen clinched victory at the 2024 Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, narrowly holding off a late surge from McLaren’s Lando Norris to win by just 0.725 seconds. Starting from pole position at Imola, Verstappen built a comfortable lead early on, but Norris closed the gap significantly in the final laps, setting up a tense finish.
Despite the pressure, Verstappen maintained his composure to secure the win. Charles Leclerc completed the podium for Ferrari, finishing third at the team’s home race. Verstappen is at +400 to win this year’s race. McLaren drivers Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris are co-favorites to win it at +150.
Verstappen’s slow start this season (third place in the driver standings with 99 points after one win and three podiums) can be traced to a mix of car performance issues, internal disruptions at Red Bull, and increased pressure from rival teams.
On the technical side, the RB21 has been plagued by tire degradation and handling inconsistencies, particularly under braking. Verstappen has voiced concerns over poor brake feel and overheating tires, resulting in front locking and difficulty navigating corner entries—factors that have compromised his race pace and tire management throughout stints.
Red Bull has also been rocked by internal shake-ups. The exit of legendary CTO Adrian Newey to Aston Martin and the reassignment of key engineer Michael Manning have left a noticeable void in the team’s technical structure. Alao, the driver switch that replaced Liam Lawson with Yuki Tsunoda has added further instability within the garage.
Meanwhile, McLaren has taken a massive leap forward. Piastri and McLaren have been dominating the grid this season. Piastri enters this race riding the momentum of three straight victories. His most recent triumph at the Miami Grand Prix showcased not only raw speed but also impressive racecraft, tire management, and composure under pressure.
Piastri continues to prove he’s not just benefiting from McLaren’s resurgence but is actively elevating the team’s performance with consistent qualifying excellence and clean execution on race day. Given his current form, sharp decision-making, and ability to maintain pace deep into stints, backing Piastri to achieve a podium finish feels like the smart play.
Pick: Oscar Piastri Podium Finish | DraftKings
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NASCAR Props Tips and Strategy
Betting on NASCAR has expanded far beyond picking a race winner. Prop bets — wagers on specific outcomes within a race — have become a favorite for serious bettors who want to dig deeper into the data and find more consistent edges.
Whether you’re betting on finishing positions, head-to-head matchups, stage winners, or manufacturer props, understanding the right stats and strategy can turn casual wagers into calculated plays.
Here’s a complete guide to improving as a NASCAR props bettor.
What Are NASCAR Prop Bets?
Prop bets in NASCAR focus on performance-based outcomes for drivers or manufacturers, rather than the overall winner. Common NASCAR prop markets include:
- Top 3 / Top 5 / Top 10 Finishes
- Head-to-Head Matchups
- Group Matchups (Speed Lanes)
- Stage Winners
- Winning Manufacturer
- Over/Under Finishing Position
- Race Specials (e.g. Most Laps Led, Number of Cautions)
Books offer different variations depending on the event’s size. Marquee races like the Daytona 500 typically offer a wider range of props.
Track-Specific Performance Is Key
Not all NASCAR tracks are created equal — and neither are drivers. Some racers consistently thrive on superspeedways, while others dominate road courses or short tracks.
Track types to know:
- Superspeedways: Daytona, Talladega (drafting, chaos-prone)
- Intermediate Ovals: Charlotte, Kansas (aerodynamic efficiency)
- Short Tracks: Bristol, Martinsville (braking, aggression)
- Road Courses: Circuit of The Americas, Sonoma (technical driving, pit precision)
When betting props, identify how each driver has historically performed on the track type in question. A driver who underperforms on short tracks isn’t a good Top 5 bet at Bristol, even if they’re elite elsewhere.
Practice and Qualifying Data Matter
Practice speeds and qualifying positions can be extremely predictive for props. If a driver is consistently fast in practice and earns a favorable qualifying spot, it’s a strong signal for props like:
- Top 10 finish
- Head-to-head matchups
- Stage winner (especially for Stage 1 or 2)
However, remember that some drivers prioritize race-day setup over qualifying speed. Know your team tendencies.
Manufacturer Props: Don’t Overlook the Car
In Cup Series races, three manufacturers compete: Chevrolet, Ford, and Toyota. Certain tracks favor specific makes based on aero packages and horsepower setups.
When betting winning manufacturer props:
- Look at which teams are driving each brand.
- Note recent manufacturer trends on similar tracks.
- Check qualifying balance — if 7 of the top 10 starters drive Chevrolets, there’s likely value.
Head-to-Head and Group Matchups: Margin of Error
These props are often where sharp bettors thrive.
Tips for success:
- Use average finish over the last 5-10 races on similar track types.
- Monitor qualifying — a poor start for one driver in the matchup often shifts value significantly.
- Watch for team dynamics: teammates may work together or avoid racing each other too hard, which can impact aggressive passes.
Group matchups (speed lanes) work similarly, but with three or more drivers. You’re picking the best finisher among the group.
Momentum and Form
Current form matters. Drivers on a run of Top 5s or clean races are more reliable bets to continue performing. A hot pit crew and consistent setup choices often carry from week to week.
For example, a driver who has rattled off three straight Top 10s on intermediate tracks is likely in rhythm — ideal for Top 10 props or group matchup wins.
Pit Crews, Team Strategy, and Reliability
Every second counts in NASCAR. Pit crew efficiency, clean stops, and smart crew chief decisions can decide head-to-head props and stage bets.
Consider:
- Average pit stop time (many teams post these stats weekly)
- Recent pit road mistakes (penalties, uncontrolled tires)
- Mechanical reliability — some teams suffer frequent DNFs
Drivers with poor pit crews are risky prop bets, especially when backing them in tight matchups or exact finish range props.
Caution Counts, Race Chaos, and Risk Tolerance
Some tracks are prone to mayhem. Superspeedways like Talladega or Daytona create chaos through pack racing and frequent crashes. This can ruin even the safest prop bets and boost longshots.
In chaotic races:
- Favor underdog group matchup winners
- Avoid aggressive Top 3 bets on inconsistent drivers
- Target head-to-head matchups where one driver has strong survival skills
In cleaner races (like Phoenix or Michigan), statistical averages hold up better, making Top 10 or Top 5 props more stable.
Weather, Track Conditions, and In-Race Adjustments
Rain delays, hot track temps, and rubber build-up can dramatically alter car behavior. Some drivers excel on slick tracks; others fade.
Keep an eye on:
- Temperature and humidity
- Rain in the forecast (shortened races impact prop payouts)
- In-race adjustments — watch how cars respond mid-race before live betting props
Pick Your Spots, Not Every Prop
The prop market rewards precision, not volume. You don’t need to bet every matchup or every Top 10 line.
Your best approach:
- Specialize in one or two markets (e.g., head-to-heads or manufacturer props)
- Track your bets and ROI per prop type
- Lean on a blend of tape, stats, and real-time information (practice speed, pit crew stats, team changes)
Over time, consistent attention to details like track type, form, and qualifying speed will separate you from the casual prop bettor. NASCAR props reward the disciplined and informed — so build your process and trust the data.
