Each week, the Props crew takes a look at the upcoming NASCAR slate from a props perspective. Further below, you’ll also find some key NASCAR DFS and betting advice that may help you become a sharper NASCAR player.
Which drivers should we be targeting with our NASCAR picks each week, and why? Find out below.
Best NASCAR Props – Top NASCAR Weekly Picks
Hunting for top Grant Park 165 prop bets? Our Props team has locked in their favorite NASCAR prop picks for Sunday’s race.
Let’s break down the best value plays on the board ahead of race day at the Chicago Street Course.
Shane Van Gisbergen Top 3 Finish
Winning the Grant Park 165 at the Chicago Street Course requires elite car control, adaptability, and unwavering focus on a circuit unlike any other in the NASCAR schedule. The temporary 2.2-mile, 12-turn layout weaves through downtown Chicago’s tight city streets, lined with unforgiving concrete barriers and minimal runoff areas.
Precision braking, throttle modulation, and quick reflexes are essential as drivers navigate narrow corners, sharp elevation changes, and slippery surfaces, especially in changing weather conditions. With limited room for error and few true passing zones, track position becomes critical, making qualifying and pit strategy major factors.
To win here, a driver must balance aggression with discipline, avoid costly mistakes, and capitalize on restarts and late-race chaos in one of the sport’s most challenging and visually striking environments.
Alex Bowman won the 2024 Grant Park 165 on July 7, claiming his eighth career NASCAR Cup Series victory and snapping an 80-race winless streak. The race was shortened to 58 laps due to darkness, and Bowman’s strategic decision to stay on wet-weather tires paid off, enabling him to hold off Tyler Reddick and Ty Gibbs despite early chaos.
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Reddick finished second and Gibbs third, while Joey Hand and Michael McDowell rounded out the top five. Bowman’s win in the time-limited event highlighted his street racing skills and tactical awareness—a performance that makes him the defending champion entering the 2025 Grant Park 165.
Chase Elliott captured the win at the 2025 Quaker State 400 on Saturday, earning his first victory of the season and the 20th of his Cup Series career. In a dramatic finish, Elliott timed a textbook last-lap move to overtake Brad Keselowski and secure a 0.168-second victory, fending off Bowman and Reddick to take the checkered flag.
Keselowski and Bowman crossed the line just behind Elliott in second and third, respectively, while Reddick claimed fourth, and Erik Jones rounded out the top five. Elliott’s Atlanta triumph not only guaranteed him a spot in the playoffs but also marked his ninth top-10 finish at the track, showcasing his knack for success at this high-speed, superspeedway-style venue.
William Byron leads the Driver’s Standings with 631 points, with Elliott on 594 and Kyle Larson at 589.
Shane Van Gisbergen is a +210 favorite to win the Grant Park 165 this year. Christopher Bell is at +750, and Larson is at +900.
Van Gisbergen is one of the most naturally gifted road course racers in the NASCAR Cup Series, with a pedigree that sets him apart in events like this.
Van Gisbergen won his NASCAR debut at the Grant Park 165 in 2023, showcasing not only his skill but also his ability to adapt quickly to new environments, unfamiliar cars, and evolving race dynamics. The three-time Supercars champion won the inaugural Viva México 250 on June 15.
He brings a rare blend of international road racing mastery and fearless adaptability to the Grant Park 165, making him a natural fit for Chicago’s challenging street circuit.
He’s shown exceptional car control, especially in tight, technical sections framed by unforgiving concrete barriers. His ability to find precision at the edge of grip and maneuver through narrow streets with minimal error—often placing his car at the very edge of the wall—is precisely what the Grant Park layout demands.
Moreover, van Gisbergen’s instinct for aggressive yet calculated late-race moves and his track record in variable conditions make him a formidable contender for a top-three finish. He led early in the 2024 race before a late incident, demonstrating his consistent front-running pace.
Even as rain, darkness, and limited overtaking opportunities shaped the race, SVG’s precision and strategic mindset kept him competitive through it all. With his demonstrated ability to adapt quickly, maximize the setup, and execute in high-pressure street conditions, van Gisbergen clearly possesses the toolkit to secure another top-three result in Chicago.
Pick: Shane Van Gisbergen Top 3 Finish | FanDuel Sportsbook
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NASCAR Props Tips and Strategy
Betting on NASCAR has expanded far beyond picking a race winner. Prop bets — wagers on specific outcomes within a race — have become a favorite for serious bettors who want to dig deeper into the data and find more consistent edges.
Whether you’re betting on finishing positions, head-to-head matchups, stage winners, or manufacturer props, understanding the right stats and strategy can turn casual wagers into calculated plays.
Here’s a complete guide to improving as a NASCAR props bettor.
What Are NASCAR Prop Bets?
Prop bets in NASCAR focus on performance-based outcomes for drivers or manufacturers, rather than the overall winner. Common NASCAR prop markets include:
- Top 3 / Top 5 / Top 10 Finishes
- Head-to-Head Matchups
- Group Matchups (Speed Lanes)
- Stage Winners
- Winning Manufacturer
- Over/Under Finishing Position
- Race Specials (e.g. Most Laps Led, Number of Cautions)
Books offer different variations depending on the event’s size. Marquee races like the Daytona 500 typically offer a wider range of props.
Track-Specific Performance Is Key
Not all NASCAR tracks are created equal — and neither are drivers. Some racers consistently thrive on superspeedways, while others dominate road courses or short tracks.
Track types to know:
- Superspeedways: Daytona, Talladega (drafting, chaos-prone)
- Intermediate Ovals: Charlotte, Kansas (aerodynamic efficiency)
- Short Tracks: Bristol, Martinsville (braking, aggression)
- Road Courses: Circuit of The Americas, Sonoma (technical driving, pit precision)
When betting props, identify how each driver has historically performed on the track type in question. A driver who underperforms on short tracks isn’t a good Top 5 bet at Bristol, even if they’re elite elsewhere.
Practice and Qualifying Data Matter
Practice speeds and qualifying positions can be extremely predictive for props. If a driver is consistently fast in practice and earns a favorable qualifying spot, it’s a strong signal for props like:
- Top 10 finish
- Head-to-head matchups
- Stage winner (especially for Stage 1 or 2)
However, remember that some drivers prioritize race-day setup over qualifying speed. Know your team tendencies.
Manufacturer Props: Don’t Overlook the Car
In Cup Series races, three manufacturers compete: Chevrolet, Ford, and Toyota. Certain tracks favor specific makes based on aero packages and horsepower setups.
When betting winning manufacturer props:
- Look at which teams are driving each brand.
- Note recent manufacturer trends on similar tracks.
- Check qualifying balance — if 7 of the top 10 starters drive Chevrolets, there’s likely value.
Head-to-Head and Group Matchups: Margin of Error
These props are often where sharp bettors thrive.
Tips for success:
- Use average finish over the last 5-10 races on similar track types.
- Monitor qualifying — a poor start for one driver in the matchup often shifts value significantly.
- Watch for team dynamics: teammates may work together or avoid racing each other too hard, which can impact aggressive passes.
Group matchups (speed lanes) work similarly, but with three or more drivers. You’re picking the best finisher among the group.
Momentum and Form
Current form matters. Drivers on a run of Top 5s or clean races are more reliable bets to continue performing. A hot pit crew and consistent setup choices often carry from week to week.
For example, a driver who has rattled off three straight Top 10s on intermediate tracks is likely in rhythm — ideal for Top 10 props or group matchup wins.
Pit Crews, Team Strategy, and Reliability
Every second counts in NASCAR. Pit crew efficiency, clean stops, and smart crew chief decisions can decide head-to-head props and stage bets.
Consider:
- Average pit stop time (many teams post these stats weekly)
- Recent pit road mistakes (penalties, uncontrolled tires)
- Mechanical reliability — some teams suffer frequent DNFs
Drivers with poor pit crews are risky prop bets, especially when backing them in tight matchups or exact finish range props.
Caution Counts, Race Chaos, and Risk Tolerance
Some tracks are prone to mayhem. Superspeedways like Talladega or Daytona create chaos through pack racing and frequent crashes. This can ruin even the safest prop bets and boost longshots.
In chaotic races:
- Favor underdog group matchup winners
- Avoid aggressive Top 3 bets on inconsistent drivers
- Target head-to-head matchups where one driver has strong survival skills
In cleaner races (like Phoenix or Michigan), statistical averages hold up better, making Top 10 or Top 5 props more stable.
Weather, Track Conditions, and In-Race Adjustments
Rain delays, hot track temps, and rubber build-up can dramatically alter car behavior. Some drivers excel on slick tracks; others fade.
Keep an eye on:
- Temperature and humidity
- Rain in the forecast (shortened races impact prop payouts)
- In-race adjustments — watch how cars respond mid-race before live betting props
Pick Your Spots, Not Every Prop
The prop market rewards precision, not volume. You don’t need to bet every matchup or every Top 10 line.
Your best approach:
- Specialize in one or two markets (e.g., head-to-heads or manufacturer props)
- Track your bets and ROI per prop type
- Lean on a blend of tape, stats, and real-time information (practice speed, pit crew stats, team changes)
Over time, consistent attention to details like track type, form, and qualifying speed will separate you from the casual prop bettor. NASCAR props reward the disciplined and informed — so build your process and trust the data.