Of all the markets for touchdown scorers, it’s possible the most underrated one is last to score. Obviously, there’s a lot of guesswork that goes into this prop. But there’s also strategy we’ll break down in this best last touchdown scorer bets article.
Basically, ask yourself how you expect the game to go. Create a scenario. What player, then, benefits most from that scenario?
Answer that question, and you might have yourself a bet.
With that in mind, here are some of our favorite last touchdown scorer props we have our eye on for this week.
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Best Last Touchdown Scorer Bets: Week 14 TNF
Our staff runs through their best last touchdown scorer bets.
Editor’s Note: Be sure to check out all of our Week 14 content linked below.
David Montgomery Last-TD Scorer (+465)
Will touchdown sequencing work out in David Montgomery’s favor and lead to him capping the touchdown scoring in a potential shootout against the Packers? Maybe. Understandably, Montgomery has chalky odds to score an anytime touchdown. Taking the last touchdown scorer prop is a nifty way to get more inviting betting odds.
The bruising veteran running back has scored a touchdown in nine of 12 games this year, including five of six at Ford Field in Detroit. He’s also had the edge for rush attempts near the goal line this year. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Montgomery has tallied 52.0% of Detroit’s rush attempts inside the five-yard line this year.
The Packers aren’t the most imposing matchup for Montgomery, either. Per Pro Football Reference, Green Bay has allowed eight rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns to running backs this year.
The expected game script is also excellent for Montgomery’s chances to score the game’s last touchdown. Detroit is a 3.5-point favorite. Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson will likely feed their running backs if they’re leading late. The workload would be ideal for Montgomery to punch in a short touchdown or to rip off a long game-punctuating tuddy.
Where to play: David Montgomery Last-TD Scorer | Fliff
Jahmyr Gibbs Last-TD Scorer (+495)
While Montgomery is Detroit’s preferred back near the goal line, it’s not as if Campbell and Johnson distrust Jahmyr Gibbs. Instead, this year, the electrifying second-year running back has handled 44.0% of Detroit’s rush attempts inside the five-yard line.
Like Montgomery, Gibbs’s outlook for scoring the game’s final touchdown would be enhanced by things going according to the betting odds. In other words, a positive game script for the leading Lions would lead to a hefty workload for the running backs to salt away a victory.
Also, Gibbs’s usage inside the five-yard line is gravy for his touchdown potential. He’s a home-run-hitting running back. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 57 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this season, Gibbs is second in yards per carry (5.97), second in yards before contact per attempt (3.58), first in explosive run rate (11.7%), and sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.25).
Gibbs’s explosiveness could pose a problem for the Packers, too. Green Bay is tied for the ninth-highest explosive run rate (5.9%) permitted this season. Therefore, Gibbs could put a bow on this contest with a long touchdown run. He’s also a talented pass-catching back capable of scoring a long game-capping touchdown reception as well.
Where to play: Jahmyr Gibbs Last-TD Scorer | Fliff
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