This recurring UFC props article series will guide you through the best MMA plays for each major upcoming slate.
In addition to free weekly picks and in-depth analysis, you’ll find additional strategy tips and other helpful hints below that could make you a more profitable UFC bettor. Make sure to check back here with us every week!
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Best UFC 315 Props – Top Weekly Picks
Looking for the best UFC 315 props? The Props crew compiles their favorite UFC prop picks for Saturday’s event.
Let’s outline the best UFC props for Saturday!
Belal Muhammad HIGHER Than 65.5 Significant Strikes
Belal Muhammad’s dominant decision win against Leon Edwards to capture the welterweight title at UFC 304 on July 27, his 10-fight winning streak, and his well-rounded style, suggest that Saturday’s fight against Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 315 is likely to hinge on pace, pressure, and cardio versus finishing power and striking precision.
Muhammad is known for his relentless pace, excellent defensive awareness, and ability to mix in takedowns and clinch control to nullify dangerous strikers. He’s proven incredibly durable and thrives in five-round fights, outworking opponents with volume and intelligent pressure. While not known for one-shot knockout power, Muhammad’s consistency, wrestling, and fight IQ make him a very difficult puzzle to solve.
Della Maddalena, on the other hand, is a high-level striker with sharp boxing and finishing instincts. His 17-fight unbeaten run includes five UFC stoppages. He’s coming off a third-round TKO against former contender Gilbert Burns at UFC 299 on March 9, 2024, showing he can close the show against elite competition.
However, Della Maddalena has shown vulnerability when forced to grapple or defend takedowns, and his gas tank in deeper rounds—particularly in a five-round main event—remains a question mark.
Expect Muhammad to start fast, mixing jabs with level changes to keep Della Maddalena uncomfortable. He’ll likely attempt to chain takedowns early to drain his opponent’s legs and rhythm. If he can push Della Maddalena to the fence and make it a grind-heavy affair, he’ll reduce the risk of eating clean shots.
Della Maddalena’s best chance comes in the first two rounds, where his crisp counters and body-head combinations could break through if Muhammad leaves openings. However, if he doesn’t get the finish early, the fight likely shifts toward Muhammad’s favor as the champion pulls ahead with pressure and top control.
Pick: Belal Muhammad HIGHER Than 65.5 Significant Strikes | Underdog
Shevchenko vs. Fiorot Fight Time HIGHER Than 24.99 Minutes
Valentina Shevchenko took a lopsided decision at UFC 306 on September 14 to regain the flyweight title against Alexa Grasso. Shevchenko’s fight against surging contender Manon Fiorot can hinge on pace, pressure, and technical precision over five rounds.
Shevchenko remains one of the most complete fighters in the sport, blending elite counterstriking, distance management, and takedown defense. Her southpaw stance, surgical left straight, and spinning attacks punish overcommitments, while her clinch work and inside trips give her a grappling edge against most opponents. However, her recent performances show a slight decline in output and mobility—perhaps a sign of wear after years at the top.
Fiorot, meanwhile, has grown into her physical prime as a well-rounded striker with excellent footwork and cardio. Her win in a grueling five-round main event against a top grappler like Erin Blanchfield at UFC on ESPN 54 on March 30, 2024 speaks volumes about her composure, ability to manage distance, and defensive awareness.
Fiorot is also far more active than most challengers, constantly moving laterally and mixing straight punches with kicks to the legs and body. The one question remains her finishing ability—most of her UFC wins have come by decision, and her wrestling hasn’t consistently been offensive.
Expect a technical chess match where Fiorot pressures early behind her jab and lateral movement, but Shevchenko adjusts by the third with sharper counters and level changes. Shevchenko’s ability to neutralize opponents in the clinch and vary her attack could shift momentum late.
Pick: Fight Time HIGHER Than 24.99 Minutes | Underdog
Alexa Grasso HIGHER Than 53.5 Significant Strikes
Alexa Grasso enters this fight with the kind of experience that only comes from going 14 hard rounds against Valentina Shevchenko.
Grasso’s striking is clean, efficient, and often built around crisp combinations and footwork fundamentals. She’s battle-tested, patient, and knows how to adapt in high-pressure moments.
A clear strength is Grasso’s ability to mix up her boxing with timely clinch work and solid takedown entries when opponents overcommit. However, her approach can sometimes be too measured, and she’s shown moments of hesitancy when faced with unpredictable attacks or high-volume offense.
Natalia Silva brings the opposite kind of momentum—six straight UFC victories, rising confidence, and a fast, flashy style that’s been overwhelming her opponents. She blends speed with creativity, using dynamic kicks, stance switches, and constant movement to break rhythm and force mistakes. Her striking is diverse and she doesn’t just rack up volume—she makes it count.
That said, Silva hasn’t yet faced someone with Grasso’s experience, composure, or positional awareness, and questions remain about how she’ll respond when forced into long, grinding exchanges.
This fight should be a clash of poise versus pace. Silva will likely get off to a quick start, using kicks and lateral movement to frustrate Grasso early. But as the fight settles, Grasso’s pressure, combination boxing, and ability to control the center of the cage should begin to turn the tide. Expect her to find timing windows to land straight shots and potentially score off a clinch entry late in Round 2 or 3.
Grasso edges a high-level striking match with slightly cleaner work, one well-timed takedown, and greater control in the later rounds.
Pick: Alexa Grasso HIGHER Than 53.5 Significant Strikes | Underdog
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UFC Props – What to Consider When Picking Fighters
The UFC props and betting landscape has evolved far beyond simply picking a winner. With operators expanding their offerings, player picks have become a key part of the sharp player’s portfolio. Whether you’re targeting significant strikes, takedowns, or method of victory, mastering MMA props requires a strategic mindset and a stat-driven approach.
Here’s how to improve as an MMA prop bettor — from key data points to angles most casual fans overlook.
Know the Prop Menu
Player props in MMA typically revolve around individual fighter performance. Popular markets include:
- Significant strikes landed (O/U)
- Takedowns landed (O/U)
- Submission attempts
- Fight to end in a specific method (KO/TKO, SUB, DEC)
- Round-by-round performance props
- Fantasy points (on DFS sites)
Different books offer different lines, so line shopping is key — especially for niche markets like submission attempts or control time.
Understand Fighter Archetypes
A fighter’s style and tendencies often predict their statistical output:
- Volume Strikers: Think Max Holloway, Sean O’Malley — these fighters push pace and throw in bunches, making them great targets for significant strikes props.
- Wrestle-Heavy Grapplers: Fighters like Merab Dvalishvili or Curtis Blaydes shoot often and control from top position. These matchups are gold for takedown and control time props.
- Submission Specialists: Fighters like Charles Oliveira or Gerald Meerschaert may attempt multiple submissions even off their backs, which boosts props for sub attempts or submission win.
Matchups between contrasting styles often create exploitable angles — for example, a striker with poor takedown defense vs. a relentless wrestler.
Key Stats to Track
Not all stats are created equal. When researching props, the following metrics matter most:
- Significant Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM) vs. Absorbed per Minute (SApM)
- Takedown Average (TD Avg.) and Takedown Accuracy/Defense
- Submission Attempt Rate
- Control Time vs. Control Time Allowed
- Pace Indicators: Fighter activity in past three fights, especially in three-round fights
- Fight Time Average: Correlates to volume props
Use sites like UFC Stats and Tape Index to break down tendencies and efficiency.
Dig Into Fight Context
Props aren’t just about the fighter — the opponent and circumstances are just as important:
- Short Notice Replacements: Often gas out early or have poor game plans. That can lead to early finishes or skew volume drastically.
- High Altitude: Events in Denver or Mexico City favor cardio machines and can cripple gassed-out strikers or grapplers.
- Judges and Cage Size: Smaller cages (like at the Apex) increase finishes and grappling exchanges. Certain states (like Texas or New York) have judging trends that favor aggression or control.
Also consider game plan. A striker facing a KO artist may use more lateral movement and fewer exchanges, lowering volume output.
Watch the Tape — Don’t Just Rely on Numbers
Numbers lie without context. One fighter may average 80 significant strikes per fight — but if it came from ground-and-pound in a dominant position, and they’re now facing a BJJ ace, that prop may not hit.
Watch how fighters approach certain matchups. Do they chase takedowns relentlessly or abandon them after one stuffed shot? Do they jab to keep range or step into the pocket and throw 4-punch combos?
Visual tendencies often explain why a fighter hits or misses props in different matchups.
Pick Your Spots — Don’t Bet Every Prop
Prop markets are sharp. Don’t try to force a bet on every fight.
- Target exploitable mismatches, like grapplers vs. weak takedown defense.
- Bet unders on volume for fights expected to end early or feature clinch-heavy stalemates.
- Look for overs on high-paced matchups between cardio-heavy volume strikers.
Focus on fights where the data and the tape point in the same direction. Your edge comes from combining both.
Track Results and Adjust
The best prop bettors don’t just bet — they track. Keep a log of your prop bets, categorized by prop type (e.g., SS landed, takedowns, method of victory). Over time, patterns will emerge:
- Are you more successful with overs or unders?
- Are certain fighters reliable in specific markets?
- Are you overrating stylistic edges that don’t pan out?
Use your results to refine your process.
Final Thoughts
Player props in MMA offer serious value for bettors willing to dive deep. They reward film study, stylistic breakdowns, and stat analysis more than public narratives or name value. While the market is getting sharper, most bettors still overlook the nuanced stats that define fighter performance.
To stay ahead: track trends, watch tape, and keep evolving your process. The edge is there — it just takes more work to find.
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More UFC Betting Tips and Strategy
MMA, particularly UFC, has exploded in popularity across online sportsbooks, with fans placing bets on everything from UFC Fight Night matchups to major pay-per-view events, as well as other promotions like Professional Fighters League (PFL) and ONE Championship.
How to Bet on UFC Fights
While the range of MMA betting markets isn’t quite as broad as other sports, especially for lower-profile fights, most UFC matchups feature three core wagering options:
Moneyline: Betting on the Winner
The most common MMA bet is the moneyline, where you pick which fighter will win. Sportsbooks calculate implied probabilities based on fighter form, matchups, and momentum to set the odds.
Example:
Jon Jones is the current champion on a six-fight win streak, including four knockouts.
Ciryl Gane is a seasoned vet but has lost three of his last five, two by knockout.
Implied probabilities:
- Jon Jones: 75–80% (set as the favorite)
- Ciryl Gane: 25–30% (set as the underdog)
Odds:
- Jon Jones: -300 (Bet $300 to win $100)
- Ciryl Gane: +300 (Bet $100 to win $300)
Some books also offer three-way moneylines, including the option to bet on a Draw, which is rare but comes with longer odds and bigger payouts.
Round Totals: Over/Under Bets
Round total bets let you wager on how long the fight will last — essentially, whether the fight ends before or after a set round mark.
Example:
Fight: Zhang Weili vs. Angela Hill (5-round title bout)
Round total set at 3.5 rounds (equivalent to 2:30 of Round 3)
Due to Zhang Weili’s knockout power and Angela Hill’s recent KO losses, the Under is favored:
- Over 3.5 rounds: -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)
- Under 3.5 rounds: -140 (Bet $140 to win $100)
Method of Victory Props
For higher payouts, you can bet not just on who wins, but how they win. Available options typically include:
- Win by KO/TKO/DQ
- Win by Submission
- Win by Decision
Because these bets require both the right winner and method, they’re harder to predict — but they pay more. A knockout artist’s KO odds will carry a lower payout than a submission, while a submission specialist may be favored to win that way or via decision.
