When it comes to baseball prop bets, strikeout props are one of the most popular options. While they aren’t always as fun as home run props or NRFI prop bets, MLB strikeout props usually have more predictive value.
Because of that, we can dig into the analytics to hunt for betting value. That’s exactly what we intend to do within this article.
Top MLB Prop Sites in Virginia
Best MLB Strikeout Props Today: Thursday, April 24
Justin Bales runs through his best strikeout props and DFS pick’em plays each day of the MLB season.
Garrett Crochet Higher Than 7.5 Strikeouts
Crochet hasn’t been quite as unbelievable of a strikeout option this season, but he’s still found plenty of success. He owns a 28.5% strikeout rate with a 9.8 K/9 through 32 innings. His 12.5% swinging-strike rate is a bit concerning, but he also boasts an outstanding 29.4% CSW rate.
There are a few reasons to believe the Boston left-hander isn’t going to be as good of a strikeout option this season. He’s using his sinker more, although it isn’t a ridiculous change in pitch mix. One of the biggest issues is that he’s seeing drastically less extension this season.
The young ace is still an elite option, and he ranks in the 80th percentile in both whiff and strikeout rates. He’s getting a shockingly low number of chases, but it’s still early in the season.
This is also a matchup where Crochet can dominate. He’ll face off against the Seattle Mariners, who currently rank third in the MLB in strikeout rate (28.9%) against left-handed pitching. We’ve seen left-handed pitchers consistently find strikeout success against Seattle this season.
Sean Newcomb is coming off an 8-strikeout game against the Mariners. Easton Lucas only recorded 5 outs, and all 5 were strikeouts. Nick Lodolo hasn’t been a strikeout option in 2025, but he recorded 6 strikeouts against Seattle. Framber Valdez (8), Tarik Skubal (8), JP Sears (7), and Jeffrey Springs (9) all dominated them as well.
It’s a bit shocking we’re getting normal odds on this play, but it’s an elite spot for someone like Crochet to find success.
Where to Play: Garrett Crochet higher than 7.5 strikeouts | Underdog
MORE CONTENT: NBA | MLB | PGA | SOC | CS2
Underdog 2025 MLBSZN Picks
Kevin Gausman Less Than 176.5 Strikeouts
Not everyone ages gracefully, with a slow decline. The cliff can come fast and be unkind to some players. Unfortunately, last year’s data suggests that Kevin Gausman will fall into the second camp of players who crash instead of gradually declining.
In 2023, in 31 starts spanning 185.0 innings, Gausman had a 3.16 ERA, 3.85 xERA, 3.22 xFIP, 3.34 SIERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.2 BB%, 31.1 K%, 33.0 O-Swing%, 84.4 Z-Contact%, 12.9 SwStr%, and 29.6 CSW%. Sadly, Gausman’s numbers cratered. In 2024, in 31 starts spanning 181.0 innings, Gausman had a 3.83 ERA, 4.71 xERA, 4.22 xFIP, 4.24 SIERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.4 BB%, 21.4 K%, 29.8 O-Swing%, 86.6 Z-Contact%, 10.5 SwStr%, and 25.8 CSW%.
Gausman’s 3.83 ERA was a fluke, evidenced by his ERA estimators. Furthermore, his strikeout rate nosedived with a fall in O-Swing%, an uptick in Z-Contact%, and a fall in SwStr% and CSW%.
Predictably, Gausman’s stuff wasn’t as potent. The veteran righty’s average fastball velocity fell from 94.7 MPH in 2023 to 93.9 MPH in 2024. In addition, per FanGraphs, he had 101 Stuff+, 104 Location+, and 107 Pitching+ in 2023 and 97, 104, and 102 in 2024.
A pitch-by-pitch look at Gausman’s fall was even more alarming. In 2023, he had a 41.0 O-Swing% and 21.3 SwStr% on his splitter versus 37.2% and 16.0% in 2024. Gausman also had a 16.3 O-Swing% and 12.4 SwStr% on his slider in 2023 and 15.1% and 8.8% in 2024. Batters didn’t chase or swing and miss as often against Gausman’s putaway pitches, which might have resulted from a lack of fear of his diminished heater. My money is on a 34-year-old hurler’s inability to recapture his electrifying stuff, leading to fewer than 176.5 strikeouts for Gausman in 2025.
Where to play: Kevin Gausman Less Than 176.5 Strikeouts | Underdog
Pablo Lopez More Than 186.5 Strikeouts
Pablo Lopez was at the polar opposite end of the luck spectrum than Gausman in 2024. While Toronto’s hurler was extremely fortunate, Lopez couldn’t catch a break. In 32 starts spanning 185.1 innings in 2024, Lopez had a 4.08 ERA, 3.67 xERA, 3.36 xFIP, 3.46 SIERA, 1.19 WHIP, 5.3 BB%, 25.6 K%, 12.9 SwStr%, 27.8 CSW%, 94 Stuff+, 113 Location+, and 107 Pitching+. No matter your preferred ERA estimator, Lopez’s ERA estimators were all considerably better than his 4.08 ERA last season.
Lopez’s ERA should regress to under 4.00 this season. Even in an unlucky season, Lopez had a knack for piling up punchouts. He had 198 with 9.62 K/9 in 2024. Lopez was even more impressive in his first season with the Twins in 2023.
In 2023, he had 32 starts spanning 194.0 innings, a 3.66 ERA, 3.00 xERA, 3.28 xFIP, 3.37 SIERA, 1.15 WHIP, 6.0 BB%, 29.2 K%, 10.86 K/9, 234 strikeouts, 14.5 SwStr%, 30.1 CSW%, 100 Stuff+, 114 Location+, and 113 Pitching+. Lopez would smash his strikeouts prop if he reverted to his 2023 form. Yet, even a repeat of his unlucky 2024 would result in more than 186.5 strikeouts.
The projection models uniformly expect Lopez to settle in between his 2023 and 2024 numbers. Moreover, they almost unanimously projected Lopez to have over 186.5 strikeouts this year. Lopez is projected to strike out 201, 203, 182, 197, 196, 194, 199, and 199 batters by FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer, ZiPS, ZiPS Depth Charts, ATC, The BAT, OOPSY, and the Zeile Consensus. Only ZiPS projects him to have under 186.5 strikeouts, and they get him to 197 with the aid of the FanGraphs Depth Charts playing time projection.
Where to play: Pablo Lopez More Than 186.5 Strikeouts | Underdog
Check out our guide to the best DFS sites, which outlines some of the best sports gaming options available in most U.S. states (even the ones that haven’t legalized sports betting).
Best MLB DFS Pick’Em Sites
We love the MLB DFS pick’em projections available at top-flight daily fantasy sites like Underdog and Sleeper. They offer a very similar experience to player props.
You’ll often find a lot of value and strong payouts available at legal DFS sites. These apps are also available in many states that don’t yet have legal online sports betting.
Best Sportsbooks For MLB Strikeout Props & Bets
The sportsbooks and daily fantasy sites featured in this article offer more than enough options to satisfy your MLB player props needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NBA player props.
You can’t go wrong with BetMGM, Caesars, and FanDuel Sportsbook when it comes to any kind of sports bet. Take a look at the following guides to see if these sportsbooks are legal in your state:
Sweepstakes Sportsbooks For MLB Strikeout Props
Top Online Sportsbook And DFS Bonuses By State
Click on your state from the list below to see the best online sportsbooks and daily fantasy sites available in your area: