The NFL season is here, which means it’s a great time to dive into some of the selections available across the sportsbook industry. You can obviously bet on sides and totals, but player prop bets have been gaining popularity over the past few years. That includes anytime touchdown scorer bets.
Below, we’ll run through our anytime touchdown scorer predictions and best bets, then outline a strategy guide to help you become a profitable bettor when it comes to anytime TD scorer props.
Best Sportsbook For NFL Anytime TD Scorer
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: TNF Week 3
The following represents our favorite Anytime TD scorer props for Thursday Night Football.
49ers TE George Kittle (+175)
While Kittle hauled in all 3 of his targets against the Rams, it was only for an unimpressive 30 yards. The utilization rate of the 49ers star tight end has always been a question with Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and Brandon Aiyuk on the field, but the tides could shift this week as Aiyuk is questionable and Samuel can’t carry the entire receiving load.
Kittle is coming off a career-high 2022 season as he scored 11 touchdowns and had an impressive 18.3% TD rate. He started slow in last year’s campaign as well and was still able to accrue those numbers, so expect the comeback to start here.
Remember, Kittle scored seven touchdowns in just four weeks toward the end of the regular season last year, and Brock Purdy was his quarterback. So this connection definitely has the ability to produce.Â
Where to bet: George Kittle Anytime TD | +175 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Giants WR Jalin Hyatt (+800)
While Hyatt may be on the sidelines to begin this game, the sportsbooks clearly haven’t adjusted for last week’s performance against the Cardinals. The rookie went 2 for 2 in receptions for 89 yards which sparked the Giants’ comeback.Â
Hyatt’s 58-yard reception also put him in rare company as Odell Beckham Jr. is the only other Giants rookie to haul in a pass for more yards. If there’s any similarity between the two, it’s that they are very viable deep ball threats, and the Giants should continue to utilize Hyatt as one.
Where to bet: Jalin Hyatt Anytime TD | +800 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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Anytime TD Scorer: Overview & Guide
In this section, I’ll dive into everything you need to know about touchdown scoring props. We’ll touch on exactly what they cover and a few pieces of basic strategy to help you with your selections.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Meaning
The title is pretty self-explanatory, but anytime touchdown props refer to betting on a specific player to score a touchdown during any point of the game. These props are primarily focused on offensive players, but they can refer to special teamers and defenders as well. That said, I wouldn’t spend your time on those. Defensive and special teams touchdowns are more or less random, so trying to predict when they’re going to happen is a fool’s errand.
However, predicting rushing and receiving touchdowns is a bit more manageable. Most of the quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who are expected to see the field will get an anytime TD scorer prop posted to the various sportsbooks. The top players – aka the players who are expected to score most often – will often be available at less than even money. However, the players who don’t score regularly are often available at big plus-money payouts.
That makes betting on anytime touchdown scorers a two-pronged approach. You bet on guys like Jonathan Taylor and Cooper Kupp, and they will often win you that bet. However, the payout will be small, and the weeks where they don’t score can do more damage to your bankroll.
Betting on someone like the team’s No. 4 receiver works in the opposite way. You’re going to lose those anytime TD scorer bets far more often, but the losses will be smaller. You’ll also be rewarded with a far greater payout when they score.
Both strategies have merit, and they can be combined on a weekly basis.
Do Passing Touchdowns Count For Anytime Touchdown Scorer?
The answer is no. Anytime touchdown scorer props refer to the player who physically scores the touchdown. That can be a runner carrying the ball across the goal line or a player catching the ball in the end zone. That means that on passing touchdowns, the receiver is credited with the score.
However, that doesn’t mean that you can’t bet on quarterbacks in this market. Quarterbacks are typically priced pretty fairly in this market, but they score more rushing touchdowns than you might imagine. In fact, two of the four most profitable anytime TD scorers last season were actually quarterbacks: Ryan Tannehill (+13 units) and Zach Wilson (+12 units). Tannehill rushed for a touchdown in seven separate games last season, while Wilson did it in four of his 13 games. Their prices varied on a week-to-week basis – they were typically between +350 and +550 to score – but it’s pretty clear that they were underpriced all year.
If you’re looking to bet on passing touchdowns, you can do that too. They’re available in their own separate prop category.
2+ Touchdowns Bet Meaning
If betting on a player to score once isn’t enough to rev your engine, you can also bet on a player to score multiple touchdowns. These bets work the same as the anytime touchdown scorer props, but you need the chosen player to score at least two times. They can score the touchdowns in different ways – rushing, receiving, or on special teams – but they’re going to need to get the ball into the end zone twice.
Like the anytime TD scorer props, these are geared towards the star players. Someone like Jonathan Taylor might be +300 to score at least two touchdowns – something he did five times last season – but teammate Parris Campbell might be +2000.
No Touchdown Scorer Bets
These bets hit rarely, but they offer a big payday. These bets only win where there are no touchdowns scored in a given game.
There were 272 games played during the 2021-22 NFL regular season, and only two of them went scoreless. Interestingly enough, both scoreless games featured one of the best offensive teams in the NFL: The Saints and Bucs didn’t score a touchdown on December 19th, while the Bills and Jaguars failed to score a touchdown on November 7th.
Two out of 272 is a minuscule number. It works out to 0.735%, which puts the true odds at greater than +100000. There may be times when that bet is worth considering, but I wouldn’t blame you if you ignored them altogether.
Anytime TD Scorer: Strategy Tips
There’s no magic bullet when it comes to betting anytime touchdown scorer props. Football is still a volatile sport, but there are definitely things you can do to improve your win rate.
Pay Attention To Injuries
This is the biggest piece of advice that I can give to any bettor in any sport. Injuries create uncertainty, and uncertainty often leads to value.
For anytime touchdown scorer props, injuries can create situations where backup players are going to see more playing time. The most obvious example is a backup running back moving into a starting role, but it works with receivers as well.
Occasionally, you can time these injuries with the sportsbook. If you act quickly, you can occasionally get prop bets in before the sportsbooks have the opportunity to adjust their lines. If you can do that, it’s one of the easiest ways to get closing line value.
You can also act before the news becomes official. If you bet on the backup running back while the starting running back is questionable, you’ll ultimately get a ton of value if the starter is ruled out. Even if he isn’t, you’ll probably still have a pretty fair value on the backup player.
Target Pass Catchers
Running backs may be the most likely players to score on a weekly basis, but wide receivers typically provide more value. They’re often available at better odds, which adds up over time.
Their value is reflected in the data. Of the 25 most profitable players last season, 13 played the receiver position. If you include tight ends, the number increases to 18.
Some of them are the players you would expect to see – Ja’Marr Chase and Deebo Samuel both make the cut – but other players are more under-the-radar. Guys like Elijah Moore, Greg Ward, and K.J. Osborn all rewarded weekly bettors with at least +7.75 units last year.
Part-time receivers are obviously at a disadvantage from a snap perspective, but it appears as though their big-play nature is not being priced accordingly. While passing near the goal line is increasing, there are still multiple long touchdowns scored every week. Those touchdowns can come from anyone. Moore, Ward, and Osborn combined for just 100 catches last year, but they scored 16 touchdowns.
Running Backs Are Overpriced
Diving into anytime touchdown scorer data, one trend becomes apparent: Running backs are overvalued. Starting running backs are among the favorites to score in each game every week, but they don’t often deliver on that promise.
Off the 306 players tracked, only 78 delivered positive value at the end of the year. Those players can be broken down into the following positions:
| Position | # of Profitable Players |
|---|---|
| QB | 10 |
| RB | 20 |
| WR | 30 |
| TE | 18 |
While 20 profitable running backs may seem fine on the surface, they’re not the type of running backs you might think. Yes, guys like Taylor, Alvin Kamara, and James Conner were profitable, but plenty of those players were backups. Boston Scott was the most profitable runner last season, while guys like Latavius Murray, Ty Johnson, and DeeJay Dallas were also profitable. No one is betting on those players on a weekly basis, who likely need an injury to gain relevance.
With that in mind, I would likely limit my running back exposure to the true studs at the position (outside of news bets). You’ll have to lay a bit of juice, but they’re the players who typically find the end zone.
Where To Place Anytime TD Props
The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your TD prop needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to Anytime TD props.
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