For your Bills vs. Dolphins prediction and player prop needs, we’ve got you covered as the Dolphins hit the road to face the Bills on Sunday, October 1 at 1:00 ET. Currently, the total sits at 53.5, with the Bills favored by 3 at home.
Bills vs. Dolphins Odds
- Spread: Bills -3
- Total 53.5
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Oct 1
- Time: 1:00 ET
- Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park NY
- TV: CBS
Dolphins Betting Trends
- Over their last five games, the Dolphins have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 5-0 vs. the spread.
- Across their last five road contests, Miami has a 5-0 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 2-3, while averaging 28 points per game.
- In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Dolphins have a straight up record of 1-4 and an ATS mark of 4-1.
Bills Betting Trends
- In their last five games, the Bills have an over/under record of 4-1 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.
- In their last ten home games, the Bills have a straight up record of 7-3 while going 5-5 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 25 points per game in these contests.
- Over the team’s last five games as the favorite, the Bills struggled vs the spread going just 2-3. However, they still had a straight up mark of 3-2.
Can Miami Pull Off a Road Win?
As they get ready to face the Bills, the Dolphins carry in a 3-0 record. Within the AFC-East, they are currently in 1st place and are positioned 1st in the AFC overall. The Dolphins have a 3-0 record against the spread this season. So far this season, their average scoring margin is +19.7.
The Dolphins are coming off a successful game, where they beat the Broncos with a score of 70-20. Being favored by 6 points against the Broncos, the Dolphins came through with an ATS win. The game’s over/under line was 47.5 points, leading to the over hitting with a combined 90 points.
Against the Broncos’ defense, Tua Tagovailoa led the way with 309 passing yards and a completion rate of 88%. On the ground, the Dolphins ran the ball 43 times for 350 yards. The team had 5 third-down conversions (55.6%).
The Dolphins’ defense has, on average, allowed 361.3 yards and 23.7 points per contest (15th). Leading up to this game, they’ve permitted a 68.1% completion rate and yielded three passing touchdowns. In terms of run defense, they rank 24th in the NFL.
Do the Bills Have What it Takes to Win as Home Favorites?
In their matchup against the Dolphins, the Bills aim to build on their 2-1 record. This places them 2nd in the AFC-East and 7th in the AFC. So far, Buffalo has gone into all of their games as the favorite and have a 1-0 ATS record at home compared to 1-1 on the road vs. the spread. Buffalo’s average scoring margin sits at 18.7 points per game.
Taking a look at their latest game, the Bills defeated the Commanders by a score of 37-3. As 5-point favorites against the Commanders, the Bills picked up an ATS win. The pre-game over/under line in their most recent game vs. Washington was 44. The team’s fell short of this figure with 40 points.
On offense, the Bills finished with 386 yards against the Commanders. On third-down situations, the Bills had a 60% conversion rate. Notably, James Cook led the rushing attack with 98 yards, while Josh Allen passed for 218 yards.
In terms of yards allowed, the Bills are 2nd in the league while giving up 253.0 yards per contest. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 11.7 points per game, placing them 2nd in the NFL.
Bills vs. Dolphins Player Prop
Essentially, we are betting on the Bills to score at least three touchdowns while accepting the risk that Buffalo could opt for a two-point conversion or Bass could miss an extra point.
However, there’s also a chance that the Bills score more than three touchdowns and give Bass a mulligan if he needs it to cash this prop.
That’s especially true in a high-scoring matchup against the Miami Dolphins, which is listed at an over/under of 53.5.
Caesars Sportsbook has the Bills over 3.5 touchdowns listed with +115 odds, but we can get Bass over 2.5 made extra points at -115 odds. I’ll take it!
The Prop: Tyler Bass over 2.5 made PAT | -115 at Caesars Sportsbook
Bills vs. Dolphins Predictions
Since the lines opened, Buffalo has shifted from being -4 point favorites to their current line of -3.
Miami is fresh off a 70-20 thrashing of the Broncos, but playing the Bills on the road could be a different story. Buffalo is no stranger to the Dolphins’ offensive scheme, and the Bills have enough defensive resources to counter the speed that Miami will deploy.
This feels like a “reality-check” sort of game for the Dolphins after they put up Playstation numbers last week. My pick is to take the Bills against the spread at home.
The Pick: Bills -3 | -110 at Fanduel Sportsbook
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