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Bears vs. Packers Predictions, Odds & Player Props – Week 1

Aug 26, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears running back Robert Burns (45) runs into the end zone after a catch for a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills during the fourth quarter at Soldier Field.
Image Credit: Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports

The Bears are set to face the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, Sep 10. The game is scheduled for 4:25 ET while airing on FOX. Chicago enters this game as 1-point favorites with the total set at 42.5. How will this one play out? Let’s dive into the Bears vs. Packers predictions below.

Bears vs. Packers Odds

  • Spread: Bears -1
  • Total 42.5

Game Info

  • Date: Sunday, Sep 10
  • Time: 4:25 ET
  • Location: Soldier Field, Chicago IL
  • TV: FOX

Packers Betting Trends

  • Over their last five games, the Packers have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 4-1 vs. the spread.
  • When looking at their past three road matchups, Green Bay has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 29 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
  • Green Bay has done well both straight up and vs the spread as the underdog, going 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five games.

Bears Betting Trends

  • In their last five games, the Bears have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 1-4 vs. the spread.
  • When looking at their past five home matchups, Chicago has an ATS record of 1-4 while averaging 21 per game. The team went 1-4 overall in these games.
  • Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Chicago has an ATS mark of 4-5-1 while going 8-2 straight up.

Is an Upset Waiting to Happen on the Road?

After a season in which they concluded with an overall record of only 8-9, the Packers are looking to take a step forward this season. Within the NFC-North, Green Bay secured a 3rd place finish and went 3-3 record against divisional rivals. When playing on their home turf, the Packers went 5-4, while they held a 3-5 record when competing on the road.

Green Bay is coming off a season in which they were 14th in points per game, at 21.8 points per contest. In terms of their offensive efficiency, they averaged 5.5, which was 12th in the NFL. On the ground, the Packers ran the ball an average of 26.8 times per contest (15th) and finished 17th in passing yards.

The Packers’ defense is coming off a season in which they were 15th in points allowed and gave up an average of 336.5 yards per game (16th). When looking at how they got after the quarterback, Green Bay was 14th while also finishing 19th in quarterback hits while hitting the QB on 17.0% of their dropbacks.

Can Chicago Deliver Being Favored at Home?

Chicago is coming off a season in which they finished with an overall record of just 3-14. In the NFC-North, the Bears were 4th and went 0-6 against division opponents. At home, Chicago finished 2-7 while going 1-7 on the road.

Offensively, the Bears averaged 19.2 points per game in 2022, putting them 23rd in the NFL. In the passing game, they finished 30th in passing attempts and averaged 130.5 yards per game through the air. When looking at their running game, the Bears were 1st in yards per attempt.

Reviewing the Bears’ defensive performance, the Bears concluded last season ranked 29th in yards allowed, conceding an average of 27.2 points per game (30th). When it comes to their pass rush, Chicago was 1st in quarterback hits and stood 18th in sacks.

Bears vs. Packers Player Prop

A player prop to consider in this week’s Packers vs. Bears matchup is Aaron Jones’ ‘To Score A Touchdown’. The odds are sitting at +141, putting the implied probability of this hitting at 41%. At +141, I’m getting a player prop bet down on Jones to find the endzone against the Bears.

The Prop: Aaron Jones to Score a Touchdown +141

Bears VS. Packers Predictions

Don’t get hung up on the Bears’ below .500 ATS record from a year ago. I not only see them picking up the win vs. the Packers but kicking off their season with an ATS win at -1.

The Pick: Bears -1 | -110 at Fanduel Sportsbook

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