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Colts vs. Jaguars Predictions, Odds & Player Props – Week 1

Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) warms up before the game against the Washington Commanders at FedExField.
Image Credit: Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

The Colts are set to face the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, Sep 10. The game is scheduled for 1:00 ET while airing on FOX. Jacksonville enters this game as a 5-point favorite with the total set at 45.5. How will this one play out? Let’s dive into the Colts vs. Jaguars predictions below.

Colts vs. Jaguars Odds

  • Spread: Jaguars -5
  • Total 45.5

Game Info

  • Date: Sunday, Sep 10
  • Time: 1:00 ET
  • Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis IN
  • TV: FOX

Jaguars Betting Trends

  • Over their last five games, the Jaguars have an over/under record of 1-4 and are 4-1 vs. the spread.
  • When looking at their past ten road matchups, Jacksonville has an ATS record of 5-5 while averaging 24 per game. The team went 4-6 overall in these games.
  • Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Jaguars have a straight up record of 3-7. But, their mark vs the spread was just 2-8.

Colts Betting Trends

  • In their last five games, the Colts have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 1-4 vs. the spread.
  • In their last three games home from home, the Colts have a straight up record of 0-3 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 21 points per game in these contests.
  • Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, Indianapolis has an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 0-3 straight up.

Do the Jaguars Have What it Takes in Indianapolis?

During the previous season, the Jaguars compiled a regular season record of 9-8 and ended in 1st in the AFC-South. Their season concluded in the Divisional Round, marked by a loss to the Chiefs with a score of 27-20. Within divisional games, the Jaguars achieved a 4-2 performance. On their own turf, they went 6-3, while on the road, they posted a record of 4-6.

Looking back at the previous season, the Jaguars finished with a ranking of 7th in yards per game, maintaining an average of 23.9 points per game (9th). In the passing department, Jacksonville finished 9th in passing attempts and was 10th in passing yards. Their ground game finished with an average of 125.1 yards per contest (14th).

This season, the Jaguars will look to become a top-10 defensive unit, as they finished last season ranked 13th in points allowed at 21.4 points per game. On average, opponents averaged 113.8 rushing yards per game (12th) and 238.2 yards per game in the passing game 27th. Last year’s unit ended the season ranked 27th in 3rd down conversion percentage (43.2%).

Will the Colts Win at Lucas Oil Stadium?

Indianapolis is coming off a season in which they finished with an overall record of just 4-12-1. In the AFC-South, the Colts were 3rd and went 1-4-1 against division opponents. At home, Indianapolis finished 2-6 while going 2-6-1 on the road.

The previous season finished with Indianapolis ranking 30th in points per game, with an average of 17.0 points per contest. When it comes to offensive efficiency, their average of 4.8 yards per play placed them 30th in the NFL. On the ground, the Colts carried the ball an average of 25.8 times per contest, finishing 18th in the rankings. In terms of passing yards, they were 23rd in the league.

Reviewing the Colts’ defensive performance, the Colts concluded last season ranked 15th in yards allowed, conceding an average of 25.1 points per game (27th). When it comes to their pass rush, Indianapolis was 11th in quarterback hits and stood 6th in sacks.

Colts vs. Jaguars Player Prop

After being sidelined due to an early injury in 2021 and a suspension for the entire 2022 season, it’s easy to overlook how talented Ridley truly is. However, at just 28 years old, he’s likely entering the prime of his career, and I expect him to pick up right where he left off as an elite player.

During the preseason, Ridley demonstrated a strong rapport with the rapidly advancing young quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, securing over 30% of the target and air yards share. The pair have a favorable matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, making Ridley a player to watch closely.

One point of concern is the possibility of Jacksonville running down the clock in the later stages of the game. However, with the game’s spread set at just 5 points, the matchup is expected to be relatively close-fought.

If that turns out to be the case, Ridley has the potential to rack up more than 100 yards.

Where to Bet: Calvin Ridley over 65.5 receiving yards | -105 at PointsBet

Colts vs. Jaguars Predictions

Despite the Jaguars coming off a season in which they covered the spread in over half of their games, I don’t see there being enough value to take them at -5. Instead, my money is going on the Colts at +5.

Covering as a road favorite playing in the division is a tall task, and the line of Jaguars -5 might be too much respect out of the gate for the reigning AFC South champs.

The Pick: Colts +5 | -110 at Fanduel Sportsbook

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