The Chiefs are set to face the Miami Dolphins on Saturday, Jan 13. The game is scheduled for 8:00 ET while airing on PEA. Kansas City enters this game as 4.5-point favorites, with the total set at 44. How will this one play out? Let’s dive into the Chiefs vs Dolphins player props and predictions below.
Chiefs VS. Dolphins Odds
- Spread: Chiefs -4.5
- Total 44
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Game Info
- Date: Saturday, Jan 13
- Time: 8:00 ET
- Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City MO
- TV: PEA
Dolphins Betting Trends
- Over their last five games, the Dolphins have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.
- Across their five previous road games, Miami has an ATS mark of 2-3. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 2-3 while averaging 25 points per game.
- Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Dolphins have a straight-up record of 0-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 0-3.
Chiefs Betting Trends
- In their last five games, the Chiefs have an over/under record of 0-5 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.
- Across their five previous home games, Kansas City has an ATS mark of 2-2-1. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 3-2 while averaging 19 points per game.
- Through their last three matchups as the betting favorite, the Chiefs have a good straight-up record, but their ATS mark is just 1-1-1.
Can the Dolphins Pull the Upset on the Road?
This week will be the Dolphins’ 13th game against an AFC opponent. Their overall record is 11-6 while going 7-5 against other teams in the AFC. In the standings, Miami is 2nd in the division and 6th in the AFC. Miami’s scoring margin up to this point is currently at +6.2. The team comes in with an ATS mark of 10-7.
The Dolphins will be looking to get back on track this week following their 21-14 loss to the Bills. With a 7-point loss, the Dolphins added a loss to their ATS record as well. They were 2.5-point underdogs prior to the game. Going into the game vs. Buffalo, the over/under line was 48. With a combined total of 35 points, the under hit in this game.
Miami’s offense finished with 275 yards of total offense vs. the Bills. On third down, the Dolphins converted at a rate of 40%. De’Von Achane was the Dolphins’ top rusher with 56 yards, while Tua Tagovailoa threw for 173 yards.
Defensively, Miami is 21st in the NFL in points allowed. Their opponents have an average of 23 points per game while gaining 318.3 yards per contest.
Can the Chiefs Please the Home Kansas City Crowd?
In the AFC-West standings, the Chiefs are placed 1st with a record of 11-6. Within the AFC, Kansas City holds the 3rd spot as they approach the Wild Card round. With a scoring margin of +4.5, the Chiefs have achieved an ATS record of 9-7-1 so far.
Week 18 saw the Chiefs take on the Chargers on the road, resulting in a 13-12 win. Besides their outright victory, the Chiefs also covered the spread as 3.5-point underdogs. In the Chiefs’ most recent game, the under-bettors finished with the win as the teams combined for 25 points. The pre-game line was set at 35.
Facing the Chargers’ defense, Kansas City’s offense amassed 268 yards in total. On third downs, the Chiefs converted at a rate of 37.5%. La’Mical Perine led the rushing game with 76 yards, while Blaine Gabbert threw for 154 yards.
In terms of defense, the Chiefs hold the 8th position in tackles for loss and are ranked 2nd in sacks. Opponents are managing to score an average of 17.3 points and gain 289.8 yards per game against them.
Chiefs vs. Dolphins Player Props
Currently, Tyreek Hill has a player prop for receiving yards with a value of 82.5 yards. On the over, his payout is -114 and the under is at -118.
Tyreek Hill has 119 receptions this season, ranking 2nd among receivers. He’s also 3rd in targets with a total of 1799 receiving yards. With the Dolphins offense being one of the top units in yards per play, I lie the over for Hill’s receiving yards prop of 82.5.
- The Prop: Tyreek Hill Over 82.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
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Chiefs VS. Dolphins Predictions
When the lines opened Kansas City was the 3.5-point favorites at home. Subsequently, the oddsmakers adjusted the lines to favor them at -4.5.
After a lackluster performance in the passing game against Los Angeles, I’m not expecting Kansas City to bounce back quickly. This is why I’m leaning towards Miami as a 4.5-point underdog.
The Pick: Dolphins +4.5 | -111 at Fanduel Sportsbook