Tuesday Best Bets: One NBA Total, Two NBA Props, One NHL Prop

Monday’s Best Bets were a mixed bag at 1-1. What does “mixed bag” mean anyway?

A quick google search suggests it’s an old hunting term used to describe several species of hunted birds put together in the same bag, some more desirable than others.

What a visual. Aren’t you glad we looked that up for you?

Now you have an interesting anecdote for your next dinner party or date night. Either that or you can talk about how Props.com’s Best Bets series has a solid 56 percent win rate on the year. We’re biased but seems like the latter makes for a more enthralling conversation.

And now for the substance of that conversation (and, potentially, your betting slip), let’s dive into Tuesday’s Best Bets.

Best Bets Track Record

Monday: 1-1
Year-To-Date: 44-35-1

Bostonian vs. The Book: 12-12-1
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 11-14
NBA Props: 15-5
NHL Props: 6-4

NBA Total: Chicago Bulls Vs Milwaukee Bucks

The bet: Bulls-Bucks Under 232.5
The odds: -110
Where to bet: BetMGM
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book Podcast

There’s no more college basketball for The Bostonian vs. The Book crew to keep betting, so they’re turning their best bets action to the NBA.

Podcast host Matt Perrault is riding the trends while taking the Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks to stay Under 232.5 points Tuesday.

“The Bulls are 12-2-1 to the Under against the [Central] Division,” Perrault said. “Milwaukee is 10-3 to the Under against the division.”

On top of that, Perrault noted that the Under has cashed in all three Bulls-Bucks meetings this season. In fact, the Under in those games hit by 42, 10.5, and 10.5 points respectively.

If you’re riding the “trend wave” with Perrault, you can find the best price of Under 232.5 (-110) at BetMGM.

Perrault listed one other bet he likes during Tuesday’s Bostonian vs. The Book podcast — an NBA underdog. You can listen to the replay on YouTube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts.

NBA Prop: PG Kyrie Irving (Brooklyn Nets)

The bet: Over 26.5 points (vs. Houston)
The odds: -105
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: Matt LaMarca via Tuesday NBA Props

In my five-plus years writing about NBA betting and fantasy, I have never seen a team implied for as many points as the Nets are on Tuesday. They’re taking the court as 17-point home favorites in a game with a 244.5-point total. That means the oddsmakers are putting the Nets’ scoring potential at just over 130 points. That is absurd!

With the team expected to do that much damage offensively, I love the idea of taking the over on Irving’s scoring prop. The Nets are going to have to do everything possible down the stretch to improve their playoff chances, which means Irving and Kevin Durant are going to have to log massive minutes. Irving has racked up at least 44.5 minutes in back-to-back games, the second of which ended in regulation.

NBA Prop Betting Guide

Irving racked up 31 points in his last outing, and the best part is, he didn’t even shoot the ball well. He was just 37.5 percent from the field and didn’t make a single free throw, and Durant finished with 55 points of his own. That means there are plenty of reasons to believe that Irving could actually improve his scoring output in this contest. There’s a chance that Irving could spend the end of this game on the bench if it turns into a blowout, but that would only happen if Irving and Durant dominate in the first three quarters. Overall, this number is at least a couple of points too low.

NHL Prop: LW Brady Tkachuk (Ottawa Senators)

The bet: Over 3.5 total shots (at Montreal)
The odds: -126
Where to bet: FanDuel Sportsbook
From: Dan Bradley via Tuesday NHL Props

Brady Tkachuk is a heavy shooter, averaging a blistering 3.6 per game and ranking 12th in the league in shot total (seven of the 11 players ahead of him have played more games to boot).

While his shot totals on a game-by-game basis are somewhat inconsistent (last five games: 3, 1, 6, 2, 4), Tkachuk has a nearly 100 shot lead over the next Ottawa forward. He’s averaged three shots per game against Montreal this season and 3.16 per game against the Canadiens in his career.

Clearing 3.5 shots may seem lofty, but Montreal’s defense has more holes than a Swiss Cheese shop. The Canadiens have allowed 35.3 shots per game in their last 10 home contests, with that number jumping to 40.8 in their past five. While Ottawa has only mustered 27.5 shots per game in their last five road games, the window on Tuesday is wide open.

NBA Prop: SG Donovan Mitchell (Utah Jazz)

The bet: Over 25.5 points (vs. Memphis)
The odds: -130
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com

The BetPrep Prop of the Day is on a sizzling 11-3 run when including weekend picks posted to @BetProps on Instagram and TikTok. (Hint hint: That’s your cue to follow those accounts!)

After nailing their first NHL pick of the season, the folks at BetPrep turn their attention back to the NBA. They are betting Utah Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell Over 25.5 points against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Here’s the rationale for this BetPrep Best Bet:

• Mitchell has scored 26+ points in 9 of his last 10 (90%) games overall. (avg. 29.5 per gm)
• Mitchell has scored 26+ points in 8 of his last 8 (100%) games when his team is the favorite. (avg. 30.8 per gm)
• Mitchell has scored 26+ points in 5 of his last 7 (71.43%) games at home. (avg. 28.4 per gm)
• Mitchell has scored 26+ points in 6 of his last 7 (85.71%) games against a team with a winning record. (avg. 28.1 per gm)

The best place to bet this prop is DraftKings, where you can still grab Mitchell Over 25.5 points at -130 juice.