When it comes to NHL props — as with many things in life — it’s not about how you start, it’s about how you finish. After struggling through the beginning of last week, we closed strong by nailing three of our five NHL props recommendations on both Thursday and Friday. That includes bankroll-enhancing plus-money goal props involving Steven Stamkos and Jack Eichel on Friday.
Like a hot shooter peppering the net with pucks, let’s keep firing away with Tuesday NHL props and see if we can maintain this newfound momentum.
All odds from DraftKings and FanDuel, updated 2:45 p.m. Eastern on April 5.
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Colorado Avalanche: D Devon Toews
The Prop: 0.5 total points (at Pittsburgh Penguins)
The Odds: Over -134/Under +110
Remember when the Avalanche fleeced the Islanders in landing Devon Toews for two second-round picks? Toews has emerged as one of the NHL’s top defensemen in all facets and is usually a sneaky play to fill the scoresheet behind teammate/Norris Trophy frontrunner Cale Makar.
With 50 points in 58 games this season, Toews is on a remarkable pace for someone whose primary job is to man the blue line. All that said, when it comes to Toews’ points prop for Tuesday, the smart move is to grab the plus money on the Under.
Colorado is averaging just 2.9 goals on the road over their last 10 games, which is the third-lowest output of any of Tuesday’s road teams. At the same time, the Penguins have allowed 2.8 goals per game in their last 10 at home — which is the second-best rate of any home team on Tuesday.
Toews has done well in the scoring department against the Eastern Conference (at least one point in 15 of 23 contests) and on the road (at least one point in 17 of 29 as a visitor). But given how stingy Pittsburgh has been at home lately, it’s difficult to recommend backing any Avalanche defenseman to pick up a point Tuesday.
Solid value on the Under with this prop.
Philadelphia Flyers: RW Cam Atkinson
The Prop: Score anytime goal (vs Columbus Blue Jackets)
The Odds: +165
When you saw Cam Atkinson’s name and the location of this game (Philadelphia), you probably thought the recommendation would be to play the Over on his shots prop. Not to sound like a broken record (again), but Atkinson has hurdled his 2.5 shots prop in 71.4 percent of his home games this season. In fact, he’s averaging a whisker under three shots per game overall (2.99, to be exact).
But while the 32-year-old Connecticut native may very well hit the Over on his shots prop Tuesday, the more profitable move is to bank on him finding the net in a juicy matchup against Columbus. The Blue Jackets have allowed an average of 37.4 shots on the road in their last 10 games. They’ve also surrendered the fourth-most goals on the road this season (3.88 per contest).
Atkinson has a team-high 23 goals this season, but he’s in the middle of an eight-game goal drought. In fairness, each of the last six games have been against teams in playoff position, requiring him to play more defense than offense.
Atkinson blocking shots for the boys pic.twitter.com/nCOF07Xbzo
— Brodes Media (@BrodesMedia) April 3, 2022
With Columbus only contending for a lottery pick, expect Atkinson to get back in the goal column Tuesday night.
Ottawa Senators: LW Brady Tkachuk
The Prop: 3.5 total shots (at Montreal Canadiens)
The Odds: Over -126/Under -108
Similar to Atkinson, Brady Tkachuk is a heavy shooter, averaging a blistering 3.6 per game and ranking 12th in the league in total shots (seven of the 11 players ahead of him have played more games to boot).
While his shot totals can be somewhat inconsistent from one game to the next (last five games: 3, 1, 6, 2, 4), Tkachuk has nearly 100 shots more than any of his fellow forwards on Ottawa’s front line. He’s averaged three shots per game against Montreal this season and 3.16 per game against the Canadiens in his career.
Yes, those numbers fall a tad short of this prop number. And registering at least four shots on goal is difficult for any player. But Montreal’s defense has more holes than a Swiss Cheese shop. The Canadiens have allowed 35.3 shots per game in their last 10 home contests, with that number jumping to 40.8 in their past five.
With both these teams out of the playoff race, look for a wide-open game in which defense is more optional than required.
Boston Bruins: LW Brad Marchand
The Prop: Score anytime goal (at Detroit Red Wings)
The Odds: +110
The Bruins are 8-2-0 in their last 10, and Brad Marchand is a huge reason why. The league’s most notorious pest has potted goals in six of those contests, picking up eight in all among 14 points.
Brad Marchand. 2-2. What a shift #NHLBruins pic.twitter.com/2Smvg6Mepq
— Spoked Z (@SpokedZ) April 3, 2022
Boston is two points behind the Toronto Maple Leafs in the Atlantic Division and could move into second in the standings with a win Tuesday and a Leafs loss at first-place Florida.
Marchand has yet to score against the Red Wings this season, but he has 15 goals and 36 points in 33 games against Detroit in his career — and, as noted above, he’s running hot.
Obviously, Boston is a big favorite in this contest (-210), which is important to note because Marchand has been on the ice for 40 of his team’s road victories this season … and he’s scored a total of 26 goals in those contests.
Detroit is allowing 3.86 goals per game overall this year and 4.9 in its past 10 home games. Meanwhile, the Bruins are netting 3.6 goals per game in their last 10 on the road. With the Red Wings on a six-game losing streak, the Bruins should be all gas, no brakes Tuesday night.
Look for Marchand to light the lamp — and early — in this one, which would produce a nice plus-money NHL props winner!
San Jose Sharks: LW Timo Meier
The Prop: Score anytime goal (vs. Edmonton Oilers)
The Odds: +140
Timo Meier remains among the most underrated players in the league. With little help from his Sharks teammates, Meier has maintained better than a point-per-game pace (67 in 63 contests) for the first time in his career. Only four teams in the league have scored fewer goals per game than the Sharks, and Meier is one of just two players with a positive plus-minus on San Jose’s roster.
Meier has the sixth-most shots in the league this season, and Edmonton has allowed 3.5 goals and 32.8 shots per game over its last 10 road outings. Additionally, Meier has six goals in his last 10 games, pushing his season total to a career-high 31.
31 GOALS ‼️
A new career high for Timo Meier 🙌 pic.twitter.com/4txhwxJuA9
— Sharks on NBCS (@NBCSSharks) April 1, 2022
Granted, Meier hasn’t found the net in two previous meetings against the Oilers this season, but Meier has did compile 10 total shots (six at home, four on the road). Given his 11.8 shooting percentage on the season, Meier is overdue to put one into Edmonton’s net and cash yet another NHL props winner.