Let’s dive into our Thursday Night Football predictions for Week 1 of the NFL season.
This matchup pits the Rams vs. Bills, starting at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC. Los Angeles, the reigning Super Bowl Champions will take on a Buffalo team that has the best odds to win the Super Bowl heading into the 2022-23 season. What a game to kick things off!
In the following analysis, we will also unveil our top Thursday Night Football props and best bets for this highly anticipated kickoff special.
Thursday Night Football Odds: Week 1
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | -2.5 (-106) | -134 | O 52.5 (-110) |
| at Rams | +2.5 (-114) | +114 | U 52.5 (-110) |
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Sept. 5.
Game Info
- Date: Thursday, Sept. 8
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium
- TV: NBC
Thursday Night Football Predictions: Week 1
The NFL season begins with two of the NFL’s Super Bowl favorites. In fact, the Bills are the favorites across sportsbooks. As I laid out above, both teams had top-shelf offenses and defenses in 2021.
However, both teams had to contend with the winner’s curse, losing integral coaches and personnel from last year’s successful clubs. Still, both clubs have largely retooled.
One meaningful transaction that impacted the Bills and Rams in the offseason was stud edge rusher Von Miller, leaving the Super Bowl champs to join the Bills. Buffalo’s gain is the Rams’ loss.
The Rams will also contend with the retirement of superstar left tackle Andrew Whitworth. Meanwhile, the Bills are banking on guard Ryan Bates building on his late-season ascension, Rodger Saffold successfully replacing Daryl Williams at the other guard, and second-year tackle Spencer Brown improving in his sophomore campaign.
Again, these are elite squads butting heads in the opener. Yet, the Bills are justifiably favored. Matthew Stafford will have to build in-game rapport with Allen Robinson on the fly after getting zero preseason-game action. The loss of Whitworth is the most meaningful subtraction from either club. Josh Allen saw limited preseason reps, playing only one successful series. Yet, he already has a rapport with all of Buffalo’s starting pass-catchers. Ultimately, that continuity, coupled with the addition of Miller to Buffalo’s elite defense, is the difference.
As far as Thursday Night Football predictions go, I’m taking the Bills at -134 on the moneyline as my best bet. I’ll probably stay away from the game total unless the over/under surprisingly climbs. However, I lean toward the under. The Rams might need a bit to get into an offensive rhythm after their starters were spectators in the preseason. Further, the Bills will have their hands full with Aaron Donald. Finally, both defenses are elite units littered with top-shelf talent. But, again, I don’t have strong enough conviction to wager on the total presently.
The Pick: Bills moneyline | -134 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Thursday Night Football Props: Week 1
For these Thursday Night Football props, recognize that lines can move rapidly. These TNF props were compiled earlier in the week, so be sure to check the latest injury situations (and odds) before placing a bet.
Allen Robinson Over 4.5 Receptions (-140)
The Bills are opening the season with Dane Jackson and rookie Kaiir Elam listed as the starting perimeter corners, Taron Johnson handling the slot, and another rookie cornerback, Christian Benford, as Elam’s direct backup. As a result, Pro Football Focus (PFF) lists Allen Robinson as having the 11th-best matchup advantage against the corners he projects to oppose in coverage.
A-Rob is coming off a forgettable year with the Bears, but he voiced his displeasure with the team franchise tagging him. Additionally, the Bears were comically bad offensively under since-fired head coach Matt Nagy. So, it’s reasonable to give Robinson a pass for his 2021 struggles.
Thankfully, the offseason reports have been outstanding for Robinson, including a ringing endorsement from Matthew Stafford. Moreover, Van Jefferson’s status for Week 1 is in question, narrowing the target distribution further.
Finally, Robinson’s case for eclipsing 4.5 receptions is aided by the game’s likely speedy pace and the Rams’ offensive tendencies. According to Football Outsiders, the Bills played at the ninth-fastest situation-neutral pace, and the Rams were faster, ranking fourth. The Rams also tied for the fifth-highest pass rate (61%) in neutral game scripts, per Sharp Football Stats.
Let’s roll with this Thursday Night Football prop and get things started on the right foot.
Where to bet: Allen Robinson Over 4.5 Receptions | -140 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Josh Allen Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-125)
The Bills should also see an uptick in plays and offense from the projected up-tempo pace. Additionally, the Bills passed at the second-highest rate (66%) in neutral game scripts last season.
In 2021, Allen attempted more than 35.5 passes in only nine of 19 games. However, Allen went over 35.5 passes in five of their six games decided by seven points or fewer. That is a key when it comes to this TNF prop. Since this game’s spread is only 2.5 points, favoring the visiting Bills, Allen will likely be busy on Thursday night.
Finally, I’m skeptical of Buffalo’s ability to generate a rush against the Rams and Aaron Donald. The Bills tweaked their offensive line in the offseason, but Donald is an immovable object. Instead, they might have an easier time neutralizing Donald by leaning into the quick passing attack. As a result, I’ll bet on Allen attempting more than 35.5 pass attempts.
Where to bet: Josh Allen Over 35.5 Pass Attempts | -125 at DraftKings Sportsbook
More NFL Week 1 Props
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