Fortunately, the weather forecast is good for the Sunday Night Football game, despite Hurricane Ian. As a result, the Buccaneers and Chiefs should be able to run their standard offense.
Sadly, both teams have meaningful injury situations that will likely be game-time decisions. The injury reports are considered for the following player props. So, allow us to help you make intelligent wagers on our favorite Buccaneers vs. Chiefs player props in this week’s Sunday Night Football contest.
SNF Prop Bets: Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Player Props
Here’s a trio of Chiefs vs. Buccaneers player props I like for Sunday’s primetime game:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 35.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Chiefs are a pass-first team, even without Tyreek Hill. Patrick Mahomes has attempted 77 passes in neutral game scripts this year. Meanwhile, Clyde-Edwards Helaire has carried the ball only 21 times under those scoring conditions. Further, Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco have mixed in. The former has carried the ball 10 times, and the latter has carried the ball six times when the scoring margin has ranged from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points for the Chiefs.
So, CEH has a volume issue for piling up rushing yards. Additionally, he has a matchup problem against Tampa Bay’s stingy run defense. According to Football Outsiders, the Bucs are 10th in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Further, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Bucs are tied for their seventh-highest rush-defense grade.
The Bucs have been even more impressive against the run by standard measures. Per Pro-Football-Reference, Tampa Bay has allowed only 212 rushing yards at only 3.79 yards per carry to running backs in 2022. Finally, CEH had zero rushing yards last week, and his season-high rushes in a game have been just eight. So, the under for CEH’s rushing yards is an attractive bet.
Where to bet: Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 35.5 Rushing Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Travis Kelce Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Kansas City’s pass-heavy offense is a plus for Travis Kelce’s yardage outlook. He’s the unquestioned top dog in the passing attack. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Kelce has a hearty 22.6% Target Share, his highest mark since 2018. He’s also being targeted farther downfield, owning a 9.0-yard aDOT, his highest mark since 2019.
Kelce has parlayed his usage into 76.7 receiving yards per game. Although, Kelce has been held under 60 receiving yards in back-to-back games. Still, he has an excellent opportunity to rebound in this matchup. According to Football Outsiders, the Bucs have allowed 55.0 receiving yards per game. Tampa Bay also hasn’t faced a murderer’s row of tight ends this season. Finally, Kelce has done well against the Bucs in two games with Todd Bowles as their defensive coordinator. In Week 12 of 2020, Kelce had 82 yards. Then, he had 133 yards in the Super Bowl in 2020. Therefore, I’m encouraged by Kelce’s past performance against Tampa Bay’s defense led by their current head coach, Bowles.
Where to bet: Travis Kelce Over 67.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at BetMGM Sportsbook
Mike Evans Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Mike Evans is back from his one-game suspension. He’ll inject life into an offense that needs it. Meanwhile, Chris Godwin’s playing status is in question. So, Evans might have a lot on his plate. In addition, Godwin might face a pitch count even if he plays.
Evans has been a target sponge when on the field this year. According to PFF, he’s been targeted on 23.9% of his routes. Evans has also been used to stretch the field, sporting a 13.2-yard aDOT. So, he doesn’t necessarily need a massive volume of looks to eclipse 69.5 receiving yards on Sunday night.
The matchup is stellar as well. Kansas City has yielded 76.0 receiving yards per game to the opposition’s No. 1 receivers this season. Thus, Evans should immediately strut his stuff in a likely tight game.
Where to bet: Mike Evans Over 69.5 Receiving Yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook
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