Monday Night Football Prop Bets: Chargers vs. Broncos Player Props (Week 6)

Austin Ekeler #30 of the Los Angeles Chargers reacts during the first half of the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field At Mile High on November 28, 2021 in Denver, Colorado.
Image Credit: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

There is yet another primetime game that features the Broncos. Yikes. Thankfully, we can spice things up by betting on these Chargers vs. Broncos player props.

The host Chargers are favorites and will look to run their winning streak to three games on Monday. Therefore, Los Angeles’s standing as the favorite was considered when making the following picks.

Chargers vs. Broncos Player Props: Week 6

Here are the three Chargers vs. Broncos player props I like for Monday Night Football.

Mike Williams Under 69.5 Receiving Yards

Mike Williams is Los Angeles’s No. 1 wideout if Keenan Allen (doubtful) is out. Unfortunately, he has a challenging matchup this week.

First, according to Football Outsiders, the Broncos are second in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Second, per Football Outsiders, Denver’s held No. 1 wideouts to just 65.9 receiving yards per game, lower than the league average of 69.7

Additionally, Big Mike might see ample CB Patrick Surtain in coverage. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Surtain is their highest-graded cornerback in coverage out of 89 who’ve played at least 100 snaps in coverage. Williams is also a poor stylistic fit for this matchup.

Hayden Winks of Underdog Fantasy pointed out in his Week 6 fantasy football rankings that the Broncos play two-high coverage at the highest rate (89%) in the NFL. Meanwhile, he also stated that per Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Williams is 59th out of 86 receivers in Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) against that type of coverage.

Finally, the Chargers are 4.5-point favorites. So, the game script might be good, allowing them to run the ball and salt away the clock while leading. As a result, I’m betting under 69.5 receiving yards for Williams.

Where to bet: Mike Williams Under 69.5 Receiving Yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Courtland Sutton Over 65.5 Receiving Yards

If the Chargers have a good game script, the Broncos would have a negative one, which is good for Courtland Sutton’s receiving outlook. Sutton has been the runaway top passing-game option for the Broncos. The big-bodied wideout has been targeted at least seven times in every game this year. He’s also averaging 5.8 receptions and 83.4 receiving yards per game.

In addition, Sutton has gone over 65.5 receiving yards four times this year. Sutton’s underlying stats have also been encouraging. According to SIS, Sutton is third in Intended Air Yards (645) and has a juicy 27.9% Target Share.

The matchup is good, too. The Chargers are a rock-solid 12th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve struggled with No. 1 wideouts, yielding 77.2 receiving yards per game to them. Thus, I expect Sutton to get the best of this matchup and go over 65.5 receiving yards.

Where to bet: Courtland Sutton Over 65.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at BetMGM

Austin Ekeler Over 59.5 Rushing Yards

Austin Ekeler is a correlation play with the Williams under. Basically, if the Chargers have a positive game script and can run the ball, that isn’t good for Williams’ receiving yardage outlook and good for Ekeler’s rushing yardage potential.

In addition, the matchup is better for Los Angeles’s running game. While the Broncos are second in pass defense DVOA, they’re only 15th in rush defense DVOA. Fortunately, Ekeler’s been in a groove and can beat up on middle-of-the-pack run defense.

Last week, Ekeler flamed the Browns for 173 yards on 16 attempts. Further, in Week 4, he rushed for 60 yards on 13 attempts against the Texans. So, Ekeler has had more than 59.5 rushing yards in two of Los Angeles’s three wins this year. Therefore, if the Chargers handle their business as favorites, Ekeler’s odds of rushing for more than 59.5 yards are enhanced. I expect the Chargers to win, and I anticipate Ekeler being heavily involved from start to finish. So, I’m taking the over for 59.5 rushing yards.

Where to bet: Austin Ekeler Over 59.5 Rushing Yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook

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