Here we go with our best college football bets for Week 11 of the NCAAF season.
Each of our Props.com analysts were asked to list their top two NCAAF picks for the weekend. You can view each writer’s overall record in the section towards the bottom of this article.
Also, don’t forget to check out our College Football Parlay Picks article for Week 11. Some of these best bets are used to create parlays each week, and we are up more than 10 units on that front so far.
Best College Football Bets: Week 11
These best college football bets were compiled earlier in the week, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing this article.
Liberty vs. UConn Under 45 total points
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Under 45 total points | -105 at DraftKings Sportsbook
We have an interesting matchup between Liberty and Connecticut this weekend. UConn will look to slow the pace of this game down, while Liberty isn’t an offense that’s going to speed it up. They’ll also look to slow it down late in the game once they get a sizeable lead.
This could turn into a defensive game. Connecticut’s been playing better offensively in recent games, but they aren’t a good offense by any stretch. Liberty features a high-end offense, but the Huskies could be in a position to slow them down.
UConn ranks 55th in the NCAA in points allowed per play (0.368) this season. They’ve given up 14 or fewer points in four of their last five games. On the other side, the Flames rank 24th in the country in points allowed per play (0.299) in 2022. They also held Arkansas to only 19 points in their last game.
Both of these teams rely heavily on running the ball. It’ll keep the clock moving throughout the game, limiting possessions.
Connecticut isn’t the most dominant run defense in the NCAA, but they’ve found some success in that area. They’re also holding their opponents to only 2.5 yards per carry at home this season. Liberty ranks 30th in the NCAA in yards allowed per carry (3.7) this season, and that number drops to 3.4 on the road.
Liberty is going to find some success in this game, but they should be able to completely slow down the UConn offense. I’m expecting the pace and success against the run to favor the under this weekend.
SMU vs. South Florida Over 72 total points
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Over 72 total points | -110 at Caesars Sportsbook
What happens when two of the worst defenses in the NCAA face off against each other? We get a shootout with plenty of scoring on both sides.
South Florida is allowing the most points per play (0.620) in the NCAA this season. SMU isn’t far behind them, allowing 0.470 points per play. This ranks 112th in the country thus far.
The Bulls haven’t flashed the best offense, although they have the ability to score. They currently rank 77th in the nation, averaging 0.368 points per play. That number jumps to 0.460 at home, though, and they’ve been playing better recently.
The key here is that the Mustangs feature one of the better offenses in the NCAA this season. They rank 14th in the NCAA in points per play (0.505), and that number jumps to 0.621 over their last three games.
I’d break down the offensive and defensive tendencies of both teams, but it doesn’t truly matter. South Florida and SMU both struggle against the run and pass. There isn’t a situation where the defenses will have an edge in this game.
The only major concern is that South Florida generally slows down the pace of their games. They love running the ball, and SMU doesn’t feature a defense that is going to stop them. Still, there should be big plays available, giving an edge to the over.
The other factor is that the Mustangs should take a sizeable lead at some point in this game. Once that happens, the Bulls will be forced to increase their pace, giving another edge to the over.
Florida State -7 (at Syracuse)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Florida State -7 | -110 at Tipico Sportsbook
Florida State has had an up-and-down season in 2022, but they’ve demolished their last two opponents, Georgia Tech and Miami, by outscoring them 86-19. We also have to go back to September because that LSU win starts to look better and better every week.
Jordan Travis is on a roll with six passing touchdowns in the last two games, and although he hasn’t shown his ability with his legs in those games, he ran for 172 yards against Clemson and NC State.
Syracuse has hit a big slide coming into this game by losing three straight, which includes not finding the end zone against Pittsburgh.
The status of Garrett Shrader is a big concern for the Orange because Carlos Del Rio-Wilson hasn’t been productive in the passing game, and they are allowing their opponents to concentrate on stopping Sean Tucker, who has just 3.0 yards per carry in the last two games.
FSU has one of the best secondaries in the country, allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards per game. This will enable them to keep more players in the box if they lean on Tucker.
FSU’s defense won’t need to be perfect. The amount of rushing weapons the Seminoles have should take care of the 62nd-ranked run defense, and Travis will continue to excel in the passing game.
Texas -4.5 1st half (vs. TCU)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Texas -4.5 1st half | -110 at BetFred Sportsbook
Why is undefeated TCU an underdog against a three-loss Texas team? First, you have to give the advantage of playing this game in Austin. Second, Texas continues to be ranked higher when you look at the power rankings.
Although the Longhorns have Quinn Ewers, their goal in this game is to run the ball down TCU’s throat. Bijan Robinson is the most impactful player not just on the Longhorns team, but in the entire country. He is one of two players in the FBS with over 1,000 yards rushing and 200 yards receiving. The Horned Frogs are 70th in the FBS in run defense while allowing 15 rushing touchdowns. The threat of Robinson could leave an already 95th-ranked pass defense more exposed, and they still have guys like Xavier Worthy, who hasn’t put up huge stats, but he’s caught a touchdown in six straight.
TCU has the offensive players to counter Texas, and this game could turn into a shootout. Their biggest question is the status of Quentin Johnson (ankle), who is questionable. Max Duggan still has Taye Barber, Derius Davis, and Jared Wiley to lean on, but Johnson is that guy who draws double coverage.
The DNA of these teams makes the first half a better play. Texas leads the conference in points and scoring differential in the first half, while TCU leads those categories in the second half. We’ve seen TCU start slow and make the adjustments because they know they have the offense to keep them close.
Texas has frequently jumped to big leads, and they either come away barely with the wins or completely lose it.
I love that storyline playing out in this game, and there are just too many different scenarios that can happen that make me confident to take the full game spread.
Navy +15.5 (vs. Notre Dame)
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: Navy +15.5 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
I backed both Navy and Notre Dame last week, and both teams came through for me. Navy managed to buy just 10 points as a nearly 19-point underdog, while Notre Dame pulled off an upset victory over a previously undefeated Clemson squad.
I thought both teams were undervalued by the bookmakers, but the perception of the Irish is starting to shift. They’ve now pulled off back-to-back wins against ranked opponents, which has vaulted them back to the 20th in the AP Poll. Notre Dame was able to run the ball successfully last week, but Clemson lost that game more than Notre Dame won it. They couldn’t move the ball offensively regardless of who was under center, with both D.J. Uiagalelei and Cade Klubnik throwing costly interceptions. That set up a stress-free game environment for Notre Dame.
Playing against Navy is a different animal. They’re obviously not as talented as Clemson, but they’re not going to beat themselves. They’ve also allowed just 88.0 rushing yards per game, so Notre Dame is going to need to get more out of quarterback Drew Pyne than they did last week. Navy has historically been awesome as a large underdog, and they’re already 3-0 against the spread when getting at least two touchdowns this season. I think they pick up another cover in Week 11.
Syracuse +7 (vs. Florida State)
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: Syracuse +7 | -110 at FanDuel Sportsbook
While the perception of Notre Dame has shifted in one direction, the perception of Syracuse has shifted in the other. They were ranked as high as No. 14 in the country, but three straight losses have dropped them out of the Top 25. However, all three losses were defensible. They suffered a six-point road loss vs. Clemson, and home loss vs. Notre Dame, and a road loss vs. Pittsburgh. Those are all quality football teams.
They have another tough matchup on the docket this week vs. Florida State, but their resume is pretty similar to Syracuse’s. They have three losses on the year, all coming against ranked teams: Clemson, NC State, and Wake Forest. However, they’ve rolled to easy victories over subpar Georgia Tech and Miami squads in the past two weeks, so those losses aren’t quite as fresh in the minds of bettors.
Ultimately, I don’t see a ton separating these two teams. Florida State is definitely a bit more talented, but this line suggests they’re nearly 10 points better than Syracuse. I have a hard time believing that, given what we’ve seen this season. The sharps are also siding with Syracuse in this spot, so it’s a great time to buy low on the Orange.
Best College Football Bets: Results
- Matt LaMarca: 10-6
- Justin Bales: 9-7
- John Supowitz: 6-10
More NCAAF Picks: Week 9
College Football Parlay Picks – Best NCAAF Parlays (Weekly Update)
Best College Football Player Props – Top NCAAF Props (Weekly Update)
