The World Series odds board is down to two teams, and neither is one of Major League Baseball’s three 100-win clubs from the regular season (Giants, Rays, and Dodgers). Nor does the World Series highlight any prominent teams from wealthy, tradition-rich coastal markets.
In that respect, this best-of-seven matchup — with the Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros now deadlocked at one-all — could be viewed as a victory for oddsmakers, including TwinSpires Sportsbook.
With Games 3-5 on tap in Atlanta starting Friday, TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas shared insights on World Series betting, odds, and liability.
World Series Betting Action
Heading into the playoffs, TwinSpires’ liabilities centered around two flagship franchises reaching the World Series. Care to guess which ones?
“Our liability was heavy on the Dodgers and Yankees, so we’ll end up a winner overall,” Lucas said.
Before the postseason launched in early October, TwinSpires had the Astros +500 to win the World Series, second to the Dodgers. Conversely, the Braves were +1,300, overshadowed in the NL by the Giants and Dodgers, who combined for 213 regular-season victories.
So the Braves were a longer shot. However, that’s nothing compared to the club’s standing around the All-Star break, when Atlanta was 44-45 overall, trailing the New York Mets by 4.5 games in the NL East. A few days earlier, the Braves lost outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. to an ACL tear.
“The Braves were +4000 midway through the season, whereas the Astros have been up there as one of the favorites throughout the year. The Astros were +550 in July,” Lucas said.
Houston entered the World Series as a -150 favorite. Atlanta was still an underdog, but at a modest +130, far from those +4000 odds over the summer. Then the Braves won Game 1.
“We flipped to Braves -150 after they won Game 1,” Lucas said of the series price, noting a flip back when the Astros took Game 2. “We’re currently Astros -148. [The Braves not having] Morton starting Game 5 and a possible Game 7 is big. If the Astros win Game 3, we’ll see a sizable swing in the odds. On the flip side, we have to wonder: How will the Astros’ outfield defense look without the DH spot?”
With Atlanta hosting Games 3-5, those contests will be played under NL lineup rules, so there’s no designated hitter.
While TwinSpires is a winner to either team claiming the title, Lucas said the Braves are the best-case scenario for the book.
“We would especially want to avoid the Astros in six,” Lucas said, noting the book has liability on the prop bet of a Houston 4-2 series win at +365.
World Series Game 3 Odds and Action
TwinSpires opened Game 3 as a -110 pick ’em, and the moneyline moved to Braves -117 by early Friday afternoon. There’s two-way moneyline action with a lean toward the Braves, who are taking 59 percent of tickets and 57 percent of money.
The total of 8.5 (Over -118) is seeing 64 percent of tickets/65 percent of money on the Over. The Under hit in Game 1, a 6-2 Braves win with a total of 8.5. Game 2, a 7-2 Astros rout, was a push on the total of 9.
Friday night’s pitching matchup pits Houston’s Luis Garcia against Atlanta’s Ian Anderson. Garcia is 1-1 with a massive 9.64 ERA this postseason, primarily due to giving up five runs in each of his first two starts. But he threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings and struck out seven in the ALCS Game 6 clincher, a 5-0 win over Boston.
Anderson is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three postseason starts. He started the NLCS clincher for the Braves, allowing one run in four innings of a 4-2 Game 6 victory.
Friday night’s weather could be troublesome for pitchers and outfielders dealing with Truist Park’s tumultuous breezes. There’s also a 60 percent chance of rain, with temperatures eventually falling into the 40s. That’s a far ambiance cry from Houston’s weather-protected Minute Maid Park.
