Shall we start with the good news or the bad news as it relates to our daily Best Bets? Let’s go with the latter.
Bad news: Our streak of five straight NBA prop winners has ended.
Good news: We are still 14-7-1 with our Best Bets since launching this exercise last week. That’s after going a pedestrian 2-2 on Wednesday.
Also good news: The Bostonian vs. The Book improved its mark to a healthy 4-1-1 on the season after hitting a two-game NBA parlay Wednesday.
Let’s keep things moving with our trio of Wednesday Best Bets, which includes one college basketball spread pick and two NBA props.
Track Record
Tuesday: 2-2
Year-To-Date: 14-7-1
Bostonian vs. The Book: 4-1-1
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 2-4
NBA Props: 5-1
NHL Props: 3-1
College Basketball Side: Washington Huskies Vs. Utah Utes
The bet: Washington -2 (vs. Utah)
The odds: -110
Where to bet: Caesars Sportsbook
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book Podcast
The Bostonian vs. The Book cashed two straight bets to start the week. Can the guys make it three in a row? They’re banking on the Washington Huskies to make that happen, laying a small price against Utah in late-night Pac-12 tournament action from Las Vegas.
Matt Perrault, co-host of the podcast, pointed out Utah’s struggles cashing tickets: “If you look at the point-spread numbers, Utah is 3-6-1 against the spread over its last 10, 1-4 [ATS] in its last five. [And within] the conference, Utah is 5-13-2 ATS.”
Conversely, Washington has been much more friendly to bettors, which Perrault highlighted as a key reason he’s backing the Huskies: “Washington is 14-6 ATS against the Pac-12, 4-1 ATS over its last five.”
On top of that, Washington won both meetings against the Utes this season. The margin of victory in those contests? Four and six points.
If you’re with The Bostonian vs. The Book crew and like the Huskies to bring home the bacon tonight, head to Caesars if you can. Because while the line is Washington -2.5 at most sportsbooks, we were able to nab Washington -2 at Caesars.
Perrault listed two other bets he likes during Wednesday’s Bostonian vs. The Book podcast, including two college basketball totals. You can listen to the replay on Youtube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts.
Oklahoma City Thunder: PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
The bet: 42.5 points/rebounds/assists (at Minnesota)
The odds: -125
Where to bet: DraftKings
From: Jay Clemons via Wednesday NBA Props
Say hello to the white-hot Gilgeous-Alexander, who enters this game against the Timberwolves averaging 33.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 7.7 assists in seven games since returning from injury Feb. 24.
During this stretch, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 47.3 PRAs and cleared Wednesday’s 42.5 prop five times (55, 48, 45, 54 and 49). That includes Tuesday night’s 33-point, 14-assist, eight-rebound performance in a home loss to Milwaukee.
Furthermore, the Thunder’s dynamic playmaker has racked up 43-plus PRA credits five times in his last eight road games, averaging 42.1 PRA over that span. Yeah, that average is a tick below Wednesday’s prop number … but it also includes a 23 points/rebounds/assist clunker in a 22-point loss to the Spurs (way back on Jan. 19). Take that out, and Gilgeous-Alexander’s PRA average in his last seven road contests jumps to 48.1.
Speaking of blowouts, Wednesday’s 142-115 loss to the Bucks was Oklahoma City’s fifth consecutive double-digit defeat. But these lopsided defeats haven’t stopped Gilgeous-Alexander from dominating the fantasy world, as he produced an average of 48.2 points/rebounds/assists in those contests.
Worried about the 23-year-old point guard playing the second night of a back-to-back? Don’t be. The last three times he’s done so, the Kentucky product averaged 31.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 6.0 assists.
In other words, don’t expect the Timberwolves — who field the NBA’s 10th-worst scoring defense — to keep Gilgeous-Alexander in check. It also helps that Minnesota ranks in the top five in pace, which means SGA should get a few extra possessions to pad his stats.
You can snag the best price on this best bet at DraftKings.
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NBA Prop: Detroit Pistons F/C Marvin Bagley
The bet: Over 13.5 points (vs. Chicago)
The odds: -110
Where to bet: BetMGM
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com
The BetPrep Prop of the Day didn’t pan out Tuesday. Jae Crowder shot 1-10 on 3-pointers, finishing Under 12.5 points. That’s how it goes sometimes: You make the correct read, but the player just doesn’t deliver.
Undaunted, the BetPrep crew is rolling with a similar best bet Wednesday, taking Marvin Bagley Over 12.5 points. There’s plenty to like with this NBA prop, including:
- Bagley has scored 16, 18, 14 and 19 points in four games since the All-Star break
- Bagley has scored 14 or more points in each of his last seven home games
- The former Duke star has scored 14 or more points in each of his last five games following a win
- The Bulls rank among the worst NBA teams when facing opposing big men this season, as power forwards are averaging 22 points per game
On top of that, the Pistons are dealing with injuries Wednesday. Most notably, Detroit forward Isaiah Stewart has been ruled out. This could result in more playing time and opportunities for Bagley.
UPDATE: This prop has moved to 14.5 points at BetMGM. The Over is priced at +100.
