Washington Capitals vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Player Props, Picks and Predictions – Thursday, Mar. 28

WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 8: John Carlson #74 of the Washington Capitals looks to make a pass during a game against the Florida Panthers at Capital One Arena on April 8, 2023 in Washington, D.C. (Photo by
Image Credit: John McCreary/NHLI via Getty Images

We have your Washington Capitals vs. Toronto Maple Leafs prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Washington Capitals hit the road to face the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The Washington Capitals (36-26-9) are set to clash with the Toronto Maple Leafs (40-22-9) in a high-stakes Eastern Conference showdown. With playoff positioning on the line, both teams are eager to secure a victory in this late-season matchup.

Washington Capitals vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Odds Info

Moneyline: Washington Capitals +150 (BetMGM) / Toronto Maple Leafs -175 (BetRivers)

Puck Line: -1.5 – Washington Capitals -155 (BetMGM) / Toronto Maple Leafs +125 (BetMGM)

Total: 6.5 – -115 (BetMGM) / -105 (Bet365)

Game Info

Date: Thursday, Mar. 28

Time: 06:00 PM

Location: Scotiabank Arena – Toronto, ON


Washington Capitals Betting Trends

  • On the road this season, the Washington Capitals have 16 wins and 19 losses.
  • As the underdog this season, the Washington Capitals have 22 wins and 31 losses.
  • This season, the Washington Capitals have hit 35 overs and 36 unders.

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Trends

  • At home this season, the Toronto Maple Leafs have 19 wins and 16 losses.
  • As the favorite this season, the Toronto Maple Leafs have 34 wins and 25 losses.
  • This season, the Toronto Maple Leafs have hit 41 overs and 30 unders.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

Over the last two seasons, the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Washington Capitals have faced off five times, with the Maple Leafs winning four of those encounters. The games span from October 13, 2022, to March 20, 2024, showcasing a competitive edge for Toronto both as the home and visiting team. In terms of victories, the home team has emerged victorious on three occasions, while the visiting team has taken the win twice. When it comes to betting statistics, the Maple Leafs have covered the spread in three games, whereas the Capitals have done so in two. The over/under betting results have seen the total score go over the predicted line twice and stay under three times. Key statistics from these matchups reveal that the Maple Leafs have consistently outperformed the Capitals, with a particularly strong showing in their most recent game where they scored seven goals against Washington’s three. The Maple Leafs have demonstrated offensive prowess, with a notable performance from Auston Matthews, who has been a significant contributor to their scoring.

The most recent game between the two teams on March 20, 2024, ended with a decisive 7-3 victory for the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Washington Capitals. In this game, the Maple Leafs were the favorites with a closing moneyline of -140, and they managed to cover the spread of 1.5 with a final score difference of four goals. Auston Matthews led the charge for Toronto, scoring two goals and assisting on two others, while William Nylander and John Tavares each added a goal to the tally. Max Domi also played a key role, recording three assists. The Capitals’ efforts were led by Alex Ovechkin, who scored two of their three goals. The game’s total score of 10 went over the closing over-under of 6.5, marking one of the two occasions where the total score exceeded the predicted line in the past five games between these teams.

Washington Capitals vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Predictions

The Capitals are heading into the game with a three-game winning streak, looking to solidify their hold on a wild-card spot. Led by the ever-dangerous Alex Ovechkin and the playmaking prowess of John Carlson, Washington has been finding ways to win crucial games. The Capitals’ recent form suggests they are peaking at the right time, and they will be looking to continue their push against a strong Maple Leafs squad.

Toronto, on the other hand, is aiming to bounce back from a two-game skid. The Maple Leafs boast one of the league’s most potent offenses, spearheaded by the goal-scoring machine Auston Matthews. With William Nylander setting up plays and contributing heavily to the scoresheet, Toronto’s offensive depth will be a key factor. However, their recent games have seen some defensive lapses, which they will need to shore up against a Capitals team that can capitalize on any mistakes.

This game is not just about the star power on both sides; it’s also a battle of tactical wits between the benches. The Maple Leafs’ ability to control the game’s pace and maintain offensive pressure will be tested against the Capitals’ resilience and counter-attacking potential. Special teams could also play a significant role, with both teams looking to leverage power-play opportunities. As the regular season winds down, this matchup could have significant implications for the playoff picture, making it a must-watch for NHL fans.

Washington Capitals vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Pick

Given the current momentum and the value presented by the odds, the Washington Capitals moneyline bet is the more enticing option. The Capitals are riding a three-game winning streak and have historically performed well in high-pressure situations. With Alex Ovechkin leading the charge and John Carlson providing solid playmaking, Washington has the offensive firepower to challenge the Maple Leafs’ defense, which has shown vulnerability in their recent games. Additionally, the Capitals’ recent trend of covering the spread in away games and their ability to perform as underdogs this season further supports the potential for an upset victory against the Maple Leafs.

While the historic head-to-head data favors the Maple Leafs, the Capitals’ current form and the high stakes of this late-season game suggest a potential shift in the narrative. Toronto’s recent two-game losing streak and defensive concerns could be exploited by a Capitals team that has been finding ways to win crucial matchups. Considering the Capitals’ recent performance and the attractive odds, betting on Washington to continue their winning ways and secure a critical victory on the road seems to be a calculated risk worth taking.

The Pick: Washington Capitals +150 (BetMGM)

Washington Capitals vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Picks

Here are the players who have hit over their current prop line in at least 7 of their last 10 games.

Washington Capitals

Player Name Prop Line Over Rate Over Odds Under Odds Last 10 Average Projection
John Carlson Points 0.5 7/10 -135 +105 0.9 0.86
Connor McMichael Points 0.5 7/10 +130 -166 0.8 0.80
Alex Ovechkin Points 0.5 7/10 -200 +154 1.1 1.04