Week 11 officially begins with the New England Patriots at the Atlanta Falcons. We have some Underdog Fantasy NFL Props to get in on the action. Not a member of Underdog Fantasy yet? No problem!
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Mac Jones UNDER 250.5 Passing Yards
The Patriots are cooking with gasoline lately. The same can’t be said for the Falcons, as they were drilled by the Cowboys last week. But, of course, a short week can turn things upside down, resulting in crazy Thursday Night Football games. Nevertheless, the Patriots are justifiably 6.5-point favorites.
New England faces a soft defense against the run and the pass. According to Football Outsiders, the Falcons are 22nd in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and 30th in pass defense DVOA. So, the Patriots can beat them on the ground and through the air.
Thankfully, their backfield will get a lift from the returning Damien Harris. Therefore, I expect the Patriots to lean on their talented backfield, allowing Mac Jones to manage the game. According to Sharp Football Stats, excluding Week 3 and Week 4 when the Patriots faced the stout run defenses of the Saints and Buccaneers when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, New England is passing at only a 49% clip.
Thus, they’re a run-first offense when presented the opportunity. In addition, when leading by four or more points in those games, their pass percentage dips a couple more points to 47%. As a result, I expect Jones to pass for under 250.5 yards for the fourth game in a row and the sixth time in 2021. Bet Prep agrees, projecting Jones for only 220.38 passing yards.
Jakobi Meyers UNDER 56.5 Receiving Yards
The same run-heavy expectation for New England’s offense that encourages me to pick Jones’ passing yardage under supports my selection for Jakobi Meyers falling short of 56.5 receiving yards. Meyers is under 56.5 receiving yards in six straight games, and he’s cleared that mark only two times in 10 games.
In addition to Meyers being hurt by a probable run-heavy approach, his yardage output is hurt by the Patriots incorporating many pass-catchers into their passing attack. Sure, Meyers is the team leader with 76 targets. However, three others have been targeted more than 40 times, and Jonnu Smith has 34 targets this season. Also, adding context to Meyers’ target total, it’s only tied for 16th, despite the Patriots not having their bye.
I’m taking the under on Meyers’ receiving prop of 56.5 receiving yards. Thankfully, Bet Prep supports that decision, projecting him for only 49.48 receiving yards.
Russell Gage UNDER 40.5 Receiving Yards
Russell Gage is playing meaningful snaps and runs routes. However, he’s not a difference-making receiver. In Atlanta’s last three games (all without Calvin Ridley), Gage is second with 69 routes, per Pro Football Focus.
Yet, he’s tied for third on the Falcons in receptions (seven), third in targets (11), and fifth in receiving yards (64) in those contests. Gage’s underwhelming play is best summed up by producing only 0.93 yards per route run (Y/RR) in Week 8 through Week 10. Further, his 1.04 Y/RR this year is tied for 203rd out of 269 players targeted at least 10 times.
I would be hard-pressed to pick Gage to best 40.5 receiving yards in a favorable matchup. And, this isn’t a good matchup for Gage. The Patriots are fifth in pass defense DVOA. In addition, they’re graded as the third-best team in coverage by Pro Football Focus. Their suffocating coverage is responsible for yielding the 11th-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers, per Pro-Football-Reference. Further, six of the teams that have allowed fewer receiving yards have played only nine games compared to 10 for the Patriots.
As a result, I’ll make it a trifecta of under picks, selecting Gage for under 40.5 receiving yards. Finally, Bet Prep makes it a clean sweep of agreeing with my picks, projecting him for only 38.68 receiving yards.
