North Carolina vs. NC State Predictions, Odds & Picks – Friday, Nov. 25

Nov 5, 2022; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels running back Elijah Green (21) runs for a touchdown against the Virginia Cavaliers during the second half at Scott Stadium.
Image Credit: Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

It’s rivalry week, and North Carolina is set to face NC State on Friday, Nov. 25. The game is scheduled for 3:30 pm ET while airing on ABC. North Carolina enters this game as 6.5-point favorites with the total set at 56. How will this one play out? Let’s dive into the North Carolina vs. NC State predictions below.

North Carolina vs. NC State Odds

  • Spread: UNC -6.5
  • Total: 56

Odds complied via Betway Sportsbook. New to Betway? Check out our Betway Sportsbook Review to find out how to redeem a $250 risk-free bet!

Game Info

  • Date: Friday, Nov. 25
  • Time: 3:30 pm
  • Location: Kenan Stadium — Chapel Hill, NC
  • TV: ABC

North Carolina Betting Trends

  • North Carolina is 4-5-1 ATS this season
  • The Over is 5-5 in UNC games this season
  • North Carolina is 2-5-1 ATS as favorites this season
  • North Carolina is 5-0 ATS against the NC State in their last 5 games
  • North Carolina is 2-6-1 ATS as favorites in their last 9 games
  • North Carolina is 9-2 SU as favorites in their last 11 games

NC State Betting Trends

  • NC State is 3-7 ATS this season
  • The Over is 3-6-1 in NC State games this season
  • NC State is 1-3 ATS as underdogs this season
  • NC State is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games
  • The Over is 1-4-1 in NC State games in their last 6 games
  • NC State is 0-5 ATS against North Carolina in their last 5 games

North Carolina vs. NC State Predictions

In order to make accurate North Carolina vs. NC State predictions, our sports betting model has sorted through thousands of historical college football games to find similar matchups. We can then draw comparisons and find value based on this analysis. 

The model found that the total is higher than 100% of the 13 most historically similar matchups. That warrants a play on Under 56. 

Everyone thinks of North Carolina as a high-flying offense that lights up the scoreboard. After all, the Tar Heels posted 56 and 63 points respectively in their first two games of the season. However, most would be surprised to find out that North Carolina is just 5-5 to the over this season. In fact, the Tar Heels have fallen under the total in three straight games.

NC State has a good enough defense to slow the Tar Heels down. NC State is 6-3-1 to the under this season while ranking 19th in the country for scoring defense and 27th in total defense. The Wolfpack will look to play solid defense and run the ball to sustain drives. That shouldn’t be much of a problem against a UNC defense that ranks 107 in rushing defense.

Georgia Tech used this strategy against North Carolina last week and pulled out a 21-17 victory. This UNC-NC State rivalry game could follow a similar script.

The Pick: Under 56 | -110 at Betway Sportsbook