Each week, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Here are our five favorite NBA props from Tuesday’s slate of nine games.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 4 p.m. ET on Jan. 25.
Denver Nuggets: C Nikola Jokic
The Prop: 8.5 assists (at Detroit)
The Odds: Over +100/Under -135
There’s an interesting balance of encouraging/underwhelming information when processing Jokic’s assists prop.
For the Over crowd:
— From Jan. 15-21, Jokic (ranked 9th overall in assists this season) enjoyed four straight outings of double-digit assists (12, 10, 13, and 14 dimes).
— The Pistons are allowing the sixth-most dimes to the opposition (25.2 per game).
— The last six visiting Western Conference foes have averaged 123 ppg against Detroit. In fact, no West team dipped below 114 during this stretch.
For Under bettors:
— Jokic (idle Monday night) has failed to notch nine-plus assists in nine consecutive road outings. The breakdown: 8, 6, 3, 3, 5, 8, 3, 7, and 8 dimes.
— Two days ago in Denver, Jokic collected only eight assists versus Detroit.
— The reigning MVP hasn’t posted eight-plus assists in consecutive road games since mid-December.
Editor’s Note: New to NBA props? Check out our complete NBA Props Betting Guide.
Charlotte Hornets: SF Miles Bridges
The Prop: 7.5 rebounds (at Toronto)
The Odds: Over +105/Under -140
Bridges has been a two-category star in Year 4 with the Hornets, averaging 20.1 points and 7.4 rebounds per game.
However, this didn’t stop DraftKings from making Bridges a considerable lean to the Under side.
Is it a wise strategy? After all …
Bridges is averaging 9.5 rebounds in his last six road outings. During this period, the Michigan State product cleared eight-plus boards four times — 7, 12, 8, 14, 5, and 11 rebounds.
Charting his 45 games this season, Bridges has tallied eight or more rebounds 23 times, an occurrence rate of 51.1 percent.
Regarding the Under, Bridges has a grand total of nine rebounds in his last three meetings with Toronto (6, 1, 2); and the Raptors rank 12th in rebounds allowed to the opposition (44.2 per game).
The Hornets were also idle Monday, meaning Bridges will likely be fresh enough to handle Charlotte’s back-to-back trip through Toronto (Tuesday) and Indiana (Wednesday).
Los Angeles Lakers: SF LeBron James
The Prop: 28.5 points (at Brooklyn)
The Odds: Over -110/Under -115
LeBron might be averaging 29.0 points this season (slightly above Tuesday’s total), but the real number to accentuate is 32.5.
That’s James’ scoring average throughout Anthony Davis’ extended absence (Dec. 19-present).
For this game 17-game period, LeBron rolled for 30 or more points 12 times. He also shot 53.4 percent from the field and 35.3 percent from beyond the arc, while averaging 35.4 minutes of court time.
Also, when chronicling his last seven road games, James owns sterling averages of 31.6 points — and that includes the 133-96 loss to the Nuggets (Jan. 15), when LeBron scored 25 in just 30 minutes of action. The other road outings during this span: 33, 29, 34, 37, 32, and 31 points.
Plus, against Eastern Conference road opponents this year, excluding the infamous early ejection versus Detroit, LeBron has averaged 31 points per game, while cumulatively shooting 52.2 percent from the field (58 of 111).
Just a hunch: The Under could be exposed early tonight. The Kevin Durant-less Nets rank 19th in scoring defense (allowing 109.8 ppg), and the sufficiently rested LeBron (idle on Monday) seems mentally/physically ready for this crucial Eastern swing of six games.
Golden State Warriors: PG Stephen Curry
The Prop: 36.5 points/rebounds/assists (vs. Dallas)
The Odds: Over -120/Under -115
This particular wager is worthy of a Pick ‘Em tag.
Curry has averaged 34.1 points/rebounds/assists in his last eight games while clearing the 36.5 total only four times. The breakdown: 23, 38, 52, 29, 23, 24, 47, and 38 PRA credits.
Charting his last nine home outings, Curry’s scoring prowess accounted for 70.3 percent of his PRA production. For the season, Curry’s scoring average (26.0 ppg) accounts for 69.3 percent of the PRA output.
Citing his last five meetings with Dallas, dating back to December 2018, Curry has toppled Tuesday’s Over three times — 30, 64, 37, 59, and 32 PRAs.
And while it’s true that Curry has dropped 48-plus points on the Mavericks twice over the last three seasons (including one monster effort of 57 points) … he’s merely averaging 21.0 points from the Warriors’ last 12 games.
One last consideration: Amid Golden State’s seven-game homestand, Curry — who was idle Monday — is shooting only 30.0 percent from beyond the arc (15 of 50).
Houston Rockets: SG Jalen Green
The Prop: 1.5 made three-pointers (vs. San Antonio)
The Odds: Over -110/Under -115
It’s rare for NBA rookies to find consistency in any statistical category. However, Green has a firm handle on his 3-point proficiency (or lack thereof).
— As an unintentional salute to Binary Code, Green has buried either zero or one three-pointer in five straight games.
— The No. 2 pick in last year’s draft hasn’t attempted seven-plus treys in eight consecutive outings.
— Green’s streak of 10 straight games of two or fewer made triples dates back to Jan. 3.
Now for the good news, relative to the Over: The Rockets have returned from road trips of four-plus games three other times this season. And for that first home outing, Green connected on 3, 1, and 4 triples, respectively, while cumulatively shooting 36.3 percent from long range.
Also, the 19-year-old Green should have fresh legs tonight, playing on three full days of rest, and logging only 22- and 25-plus minutes in his last two games.
