Friends, we’re officially in an NHL props funk. After a 1-for-5 effort last Thursday, we followed it up with an 0-for-5 Tuesday. Just how frustrating was the action two nights ago?
I actually attended the Islanders-Blue Jackets game, so I go to watch in person as Columbus defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov scored two goals while teammate Patrik Laine couldn’t find the back of the net. In Tuesday’s NHL props breakdown, I mentioned the Islanders’ recent trend of conceding a high number of shots. Sure enough, the Blue Jackets put 45 on goal against the Isles’ Semyon Varlamov … and yet Laine couldn’t break through in his team’s 4-3 loss.
Even worse, Rangers forward Artemi Panarin picked up two assists in a 3-2 win at Pittsburgh, but finished with only two shots on goal — thus barely missing his 2.5 shots prop. Then the Flyers’ Cam Atkinson bucked his home/road shots trend and put three pucks on net to nail the Over when the Under was the logical play.
OK, that’s enough looking back. Let’s glance forward to Thursday’s NHL props and see if we can put together a winning day.
All odds from DraftKings and FanDuel as of 1 p.m. ET.
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Florida Panthers: C Aleksander Barkov
The Prop: Score anytime goal (vs. Chicago)
The Odds: -105
Might as well start with one more mea culpa from Tuesday: Recommending the Under on Panthers center Sam Bennett’s points prop was a big mistake. Bennett tallied a goal and two assists against the NHL’s worst team (Montreal). Lesson learned, as we’re backing another Florida forward against yet another bottom-feeder club.
Aleksander Barkov leads the Panthers with 29 goals this season. His 16.7 percent shooting rate is second only to Anthony Duclair (20.6%). With goals in three of his last five, Barkov is feeling it right now.
For your viewing pleasure: Sasha Barkov's gorgeous shootout winner.
"That's filthier than a county fair dumpster" – @HeyRedDeer pic.twitter.com/UjUjThXUN8
— David Dwork (@DavidDwork) March 27, 2022
Florida is averaging five goals per game at home in their last 10 games — which is a lot, and yet it’s barely off their season pace insider their barn (4.70). Meanwhile, the Blackhawks are allowing 3.32 goals per game on the road this year.
In his career, Barkov has 23 points in 21 games against Chicago. Sure, only six of those points came on goals. But considering he’s lit the lamp in half of his 22 games against losing teams this season, this is a matchup that’s too good pass up.
Columbus Blue Jackets: RW Oliver Bjorkstrand
The Prop: 2.5 total shots (at NY Islanders)
The Odds: Over -120/Under -110
Yeah, I just blew a tire betting on a Blue Jackets skater against the Islanders. But it certainly wasn’t for a lack of logic. The Islanders have allowed 35 shots on goal per game over their last 10, and as noted above, that includes 45 to Columbus on Tuesday. These two return to the ice in a back-to-back clash Wednesday, and this time, we’re banking on Oliver Bjorkstrand.— who produced eight of those 45 shots (or 17.8 percent of his team’s total).
The 26-year-old from Denmark ranks second on the team in shots behind defenseman Zach Werenski. Here’s why that’s noteworthy: Werenski isn’t traveling with the team on the two-game road trip, meaning it’s up to Bjorkstrand to step up offensively. He did it Tuesday, and there’s reason to believe he’ll do it again.
Bjorkstrand has cashed Over 2.5 shots in better than 50 percent of his road contests this season (17 of 32). He’s also done so in 19 of 38 games against Eastern Conference opponents.
Given the high shot volume generated Tuesday and the Isles’ recent defensive struggles, this is a live Thursday NHL props selection at a reasonable price.
Editor’s Note: New to NHL Props? Check out our complete NHL Props Betting Guide to get up to speed!
Carolina Hurricanes: RW Martin Necas
The Prop: 0.5 total points (vs. Montreal)
The Odds: Over -106/Under -114
The Montreal Canadiens were the first team eliminated from 2022 playoff contention — this after making it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals last summer. Life comes at you fast.
Montreal has gone belly-up without goaltenders Carey Price and veteran defenseman Shea Weber. That’s especially true on the road, where the Habs are allowing a league-worst 36.6 shots per game. They’re also one of two teams to surrender more than four goals against per game on the road.
While the Hurricanes have been deadly at home (24-5-4), they’ve somewhat slowed at PNC Arena in recent weeks, averaging 2.6 goals per game in their last 10 at home. That’s well off their overall season rate of 3.3 per contest in their building.
Martin Necas is a value play here, as he’s quietly put up six points in his past five games. While the 2017 first-round pick doesn’t have the point totals to match such teammates as Sebastian Aho or Andrei Svechnikov, he’s a bit of a sneaky play in this one. Necas has gone Over this prop number in 13 of 25 games against teams with a losing record this year. He’s also found the scoresheet with an assist in each of Carolina’s previous matchups with Montreal this season.
Boston Bruins: LW Brad Marchand
The Prop: Score anytime goal (vs. New Jersey)
The Odds: +100
Whether you love or hate Boston’s serial agitator, you can’t deny Brad Marchand’s talent — nor the fact the Bruins are better with their 13-year NHL veteran on the ice. With 66 points in 55 games, Marchand is one of 23 NHL skaters averaging at least 1.20 points per game this year.
Boston’s four-game winning streak came to an end Monday against Toronto, but the club now begins a stretch of four straight contests against teams with a losing record — and New Jersey is a special kind of losing team. The Devils allow four goals per game on the road this season — an average that has jumped to 4.5 in their last 10 outings and an even 5.0 in their last five. Meanwhile, the Bruins are scoring four goals per game in their past five tilts at TD Garden.
Marchand has scored twice in two games against New Jersey this season, averaging four shots per contest. Throw in four goals in his past five games, and we’ll ride with Marchand to stay hot and light the lamp again against the defenseless Devils.
Colorado Avalanche: C Nazem Kadri
The Prop: 0.5 total assists (vs. San Jose)
The Odds: Over -104/Under -118
Without looking, who leads the Colorado Avalanche in points this season? Star center Nathan MacKinnon? Norris Trophy frontrunner Cale Makar? Elite winger Mikko Rantanen? Nope. It’s Nazem Kadri with 81 points in 64 games.
Beyond that, Kadri leads the Avs with 55 assists, including four in his last five outings. He’s been the unsung hero in Colorado this season and will play a pivotal role as the mighty Avalanche make their run at the Stanley Cup.
Top 10 ranking in primary assists at 5v5 this year:
Gaudreau
Tkachuk
Kadri
Kaprizov
Kane
Konecny
Michael Bunting
Kyrou
Josi
ThomasSome great playmakers on this list.
— Nick DeSouza (@NickDeSouza_) March 26, 2022
With MacKinnon set to miss Thursday’s game with a hand injury, Kadri should see an increase in minutes — and against a floundering San Jose Sharks team that has allowed 3.8 goals per game in its last five road contests.
Kadri has been making life miserable for goaltenders recently, compiling 28 shots over his past six contests. An even better stat: He has 36 assists in 31 home games this season — including two the last time the Sharks visited Colorado on Nov. 13.
