We went 1-for-3 with Wednesday’s Best Bets, bringing us back to the gambling Mendoza line at 26-26-1.
In other words, it’s Judgement Day for the Props and BetPrep crew. Will we dip below .500 for the first time since launching this article series, or is this just a rut that we will laugh about in a couple of weeks?
We’ll find out after grading our four wagers on the night: One Sweet 16 side, two NBA props, and one NHL prop.
All things considered, it’s an excellent sports betting night, so let’s jump into Thursday’s Best Bets!
Best Bets Track Record
Wednesday: 1-2
Year-To-Date: 26-26-1
Bostonian vs. The Book: 7-9-1
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 6-11
NBA Props: 9-4
NHL Props: 4-2
College Basketball Side: Villanova Wildcats Vs Michigan Wolverines
The bet: Villanova -5 (vs. Michigan)
The odds: -110
Where to bet: Caesars Sportsbook
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book Podcast
Welp, The Bostonian Vs. The Book has gone 0-for-3 to start the week. Will the guys be rescued by the return of March Madness, or will the losing streak persist?
For Thursday, Matt Perrault, host of the podcast, is sticking with his NCAA Tournament mantra: Fade the Big Ten.
That strategy leads him to Villanova -5 against Michigan in a Sweet 16 matchup that tips off at 7:29 p.m. ET Thursday.
“This [line] is all about Big Ten, Michigan money coming in,” Perrault said. “It is totally overlooking Nova’s pedigree and guard play here in this game.”
It takes two pundit endorsements to make a best bet, and Dave Sharapan — co-host of the podcast — offered his stamp of approval as well.
“I just think Villanova is built for this,” Sharapan said. “If Villanova just does what they do, they are going to win the game.”
Perrault also noted that Villanova is on track to have one of the best single-season free-throw shooting percentages of all time. The Wildcats lead college basketball, shooting 82.61% from the charity stripe this season (82.2% is the record). That could be the key to covering this spread in the event that Villanova is intentionally sent to the free-throw line down the stretch.
Feel like tailing this pick? You can find Villanova -5 with -110 odds at Caesars Sportsbook.
Perrault listed three other bets he likes during Thursday’s Bostonian vs. The Book podcast — all college basketball sides. You can listen to the replay on Youtube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts.
NBA Prop: New Orleans Pelicans – SG CJ McCollum
The bet: Over 30.5 points + assists (vs. Chicago)
The odds: -125
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: Matt LaMarca via Thursday NBA Props
Fresh off another win (Kyrie Irving Over 2.5 3-pointers), the NBA Props are looking to improve to 10-4 within this Best Bets series. Here’s why we are looking toward CJ McCollum Over 30.5 points + rebounds on Thursday:
The Pelicans are expected to be without Brandon Ingram once again, so McCollum should continue to run the show for the Pelicans. McCollum has seen a +2.9% usage bump with Ingram off the court, as well as a +7.5% assist rate bump. Both of those are the biggest increases on the team. Add it all up, and McCollum has averaged 37.1 points + assists per 36 minutes with Ingram off the floor.
That alone is enough to give a look to the Over, and it’s supported by a healthy game environment (Pelicans -3, 230 total) to boot.
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NHL Prop: Edmonton Oilers – D Darnell Nurse
The bet: Over 2.5 total shots (vs San Jose)
The odds: +118
Where to bet: FanDuel Sportsbook
From: Dan Bradley via Thursday NHL Props
Edmonton’s all-gas, no-brakes offensive system has been much maligned over the past few seasons. Darnell Nurse has somewhat been the victim there, with impressive offensive numbers but questionable play in his own end.
This season, Nurse is averaging more than three shots per game. However, in his last five contests, he’s alternated efforts of three and five shots with three outings where he failed to put the puck on net even once.
If you believe in mini-trends, Nurse should have no trouble eclipsing this prop number Thursday. But there are additional stats to support that stance. For instance, Nurse has gone surpassed this number 16 times in 28 games against Western Conference opponents and 18 times in 29 contests (62.07%) at home.
The Sharks are around the middle of the pack in shots allowed on the road (average of 32 per game). San Jose has also permitted an opposing defenseman to record at least three shots in each of its last five games. On two of those occasions, at least two defensemen hit that mark against the Sharks.
The Over at plus money is a great value here.
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NBA Prop: Washington Wizards – F Rui Hachimura
The bet: Under 14.5 points
The odds: -115
Where to bet: BetMGM
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com
The BetPrep crew has lost three straight props to begin the week. The Overs haven’t worked, so they are taking the opposite approach while selecting Rui Hachimura Under 14.5 points.
Here’s the rationale for this BetPrep Best Bets recommendation:
- Hachimura has scored 15-plus points in just two of his last 21 games after his team failed to cover (9.6 ppg).
- Only two of Hachimura’s last 13 games against teams with a winning record have seen the forward score 15-plus points (11.3 ppg).
- Hachimura scored 15-plus points in only four of his last 12 road games (11.92 ppg).
In addition to those numbers, Hachimura is only averaging 10.2 points per game this season, and he has gone Under 14.5 points in five of his last six contests.
You can find Hachimura Under 14.5 points (-115) at BetMGM.