The 49ers are favorites in Denver against the Broncos. Sadly, the Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett era has gotten off to a dubious start. Meanwhile, a familiar face is under center for the 49ers (good ol’ Jimmy G) after Trey Lance suffered a season-ending ankle injury last week. The 49ers will have another familiar face in the huddle on offense this week in the return of their superstar tight end.
Should bettors hop right into the prop market with George Kittle returning? Yes. Meanwhile, a pair of rushing props are also enticing. Find out which prop bets we suggest making for the Week 3 Sunday Night Football game between the Broncos and 49ers.
SNF Prop Bets: Broncos vs. 49ers Player Props
Here’s a trio of Broncos vs. 49ers player props I like for Sunday’s primetime matchup:
Melvin Gordon Under 39.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Hackett hasn’t gotten much right through two games. However, he wisely increased Javonte Williams’s snap share in Week 2. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Williams played 58% of Denver’s offensive snaps in Week 1. Then, he played 65% of the offensive snaps in Week 2.
Predictably, Williams’s increase in playing time has come at Melvin Gordon’s expense. Gordon slipped from a 41% snap share to 32%. The veteran back has made the most of his snaps, rushing for 58 yards and 47 yards. However, facing the 49ers is a different animal.
According to Football Outsiders, the 49ers are fifth in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). San Francisco has also shined in traditional measures. Per Pro-Football-Reference, they’ve allowed the fewest yards per rush attempt (2.6).
Finally, I expect the favored 49ers to handle their business and win. So, the Broncos could be in a negative game script if that comes to fruition. Therefore, I’ll take the under for Gordon’s rushing yardage prop at 39.5 yards on Caesars Sportsbook.
Where to bet: Melvin Gordon Under 39.5 rush yards | -114 at Caesars Sportsbook
Deebo Samuel Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-104)
Deebo Samuel has turned into a weapon as a runner. He’s also come out of the blocks hot this year, rumbling for 52 yards and 53. So, the new contract with incentives for rushing the ball has seemingly fixed the riff between Samuel and the organization.
Samuel has also cooked with gasoline when Elijah Mitchell was hurt. In Samuel’s previous five games without Mitchell, he’s averaged 46 rushing yards on 6.2 attempts per game. Samuel has also had a median of 37 rushing yards and six attempts.
The blocking should also be good for Samuel. According to Football Outsiders, the 49ers are 12th in Adjusted Line Yards at a robust 4.69. Finally, I expect the 49ers to be in a neutral or good game script, providing San Francisco a path to running the ball to their heart’s delight. As a result, I’m betting Samuel has more than 32.5 rushing yards.
Where to bet: Debbo Samuel Over 32.5 rush yards | -104 FanDuel Sportsbook
George Kittle Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
George Kittle will make his season debut this week and doesn’t face any restrictions. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Kittle averaged 60.24 receiving yards per game when including the postseason. Additionally, Kittle’s average was 63.67 receiving yards per game in 15 games that Jimmy Garoppolo started and finished.
Kittle was also highly efficient. Out of 173 players targeted at least 40 times, Kittle was 13th with 2.21 Y/RR. And, again, he was better with Jimmy G, sporting a 2.37 Y/RR in the games he started and finished. Further, Kittle was targeted on 22.8% of his routes in the 15-game sample. So, Kittle was efficient and commanded targets.
Finally, the matchup is rock-solid. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Broncos have allowed 136 yards to tight ends on 19 targets and 14 receptions this year. They haven’t faced a murderer’s row of tight ends, either. As a result, I expect Kyle Shanahan to exploit Seattle’s secondary with some first-read passes to Kittle on Sunday night and for the superstar tight end to clear 43.5 receiving yards.
Where to bet: George Kittle Over 43.5 receiving yards | -115 DraftKings Sportsbook
More NFL Week 3 Picks & Props
Broncos vs. 49ers Predictions: Sunday Night Football Picks (Week 3)
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