The QB situation in Cleveland hangs in the balance as the regular season quickly approaches. When the Browns acquired Deshaun Watson in March, we knew there was a risk that he would serve some type of suspension in 2022. As the details of this case emerge, that seems more probable as we move closer to the season.
The Browns are currently favored by 3.5 points at the Carolina Panthers in Week 1. If Watson is suspended, that line will inevitably move closer to a pick’em. Savvy NFL Week 1 bettors will look to jump on the underdog before that happens.
The likely outcome is for Mayfield to be traded, and Jacoby Brissett to start for the Browns in Week 1 against the Caroline Panthers. BetPrep NFL sharp “Hitman” seems to agree as line movement now favors locking in the Panthers in a pick’em bet in this season opener.
NFL Week 1 Odds: Browns at Panthers
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Browns | -3.5 | 42.5 (-110) |
| Panthers | +3.5 | 42.5 (-110) |
Odds via BetMGM updated as of 12 p.m ET on June 9
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Will Deshaun Watson Play In Week 1?
On May 24, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell announced the Deshaun Watson investigation was winding down. Since that announcement, two new accusations were filed against the former Texans QB, bringing the total number of cases against him to 24.
Things are not looking good for the new Browns franchise quarterback. A New York Times report added fuel to the fire, detailing the full extent of Watson’s actions as it pertains to the case. The verdict seems to be the rising NFL star will at least be suspended for Week 1, if not longer. Former top overall pick QB Baker Mayfield is still on the Cleveland roster, but a trade seems imminent. That leaves the Browns with Jacoby Brisset as the potential starter in Week 1.
What About Baker Mayfield?
The path remains unclear for now soon-to-be-former franchise QB Baker Mayfield. Ironically, there is one team who has expressed interest: The Carolina Panthers. So if the Browns decide to dish him, this could be a can’t-miss matchup in Week 1.
Currently, the Panthers have Sam Darnold and rookie Matt Corral on their depth chart. But the addition of Mayfield could mean a starting position and instant payback for a move nobody saw coming when the Browns anointed Watson their new franchise QB.
Sharp Bettors Hammering Panthers +3.5?
BetPrep sharp bettor “Tommy The Hitman” has this line moving from the current spread of Browns -3.5 to a pick’em. The rationale makes sense in the wake of new information regarding Watson’s case. If Watson does not start, then Sam Darnold or Matt Corral both have a fighting chance to steal the win from the likely Browns starter Jacoby Brissett. Remember, Carolina is playing this game at home.
If Carolina upgrades their QB situation and picks up either Baker Mayfield or even Jimmy Garoppolo, then they may even be the favorites. But with so much up in the air, sharp bettors like “Tommy The Hitman” are conservatively estimating a pick’em bet. Consider the following tweet:
If you want to get out in front of a likely line move, I don’t see any way Watson is playing W1 and Carolina also still has the possibility of their PR being upgraded with a Jimmy G/Baker trade. With Brissett starting I am closer to PK than I am to +3.5 for Carolina.
— Hitman (@Hitman428) June 7, 2022
There’s definitely a lot to consider, and one of the likely outcomes could certainly be the underdog Panthers coming away with a win. At the very least, this seems like a spot where savvy bettors can get closing line value while the sportsbooks sit in limbo regarding the Deshaun Watson case.
Lock-In Panthers +3.5 Before The Line Moves
The line movement is definitely in favor of the Panthers as week 1 approaches.
Cleveland opened as a 4.5-point favorite, and that line has ticked down to 3.5 at the time of writing this article. The total is also down to 42.5 after opening at 43.5. Those movements probably aren’t enough to account for the full situation. There will certainly be more tinkering of the spread and total if/when we get news regarding Watson’s suspension.
DraftKings actually pulled this game from their NFL Week 1 menu, if that tells you anything. You can still find the Panthers at +3.5 on BetMGM, and there’s a strong possibility you’ll lock in closing line value by getting ahead of the move.
