If you haven’t figured it out already, you will soon enough: We here at Props.com are big on offering information, not advice. Unless that advice is your garden variety public-service announcement. You know, along the lines of “Never press ‘send’ on an email at 2 a.m.” Or “Never get down on one knee on the first date.” Or “Never bet an Under in a standalone NFL game.”
Hold on, wait — what was that last one?
Hey, we don’t make the rules, we just follow them. And after three weeks tracking NFL betting trends, it’s become abundantly clear that if you’re wagering on an Under in a prime-time game — or, for that matter, wagering on any team that headquarters in New Jersey — you simply don’t like money.
Allow us to explain in this week’s edition of the NFL Point Spread Report.
Note: All statistics based off closing numbers per VegasInsider.com.
NFL Betting Trends: ATS & Over/Under
| Trends | Last Week | Season Overall |
| Favorites SU | 9-7 | 27-21 |
| Favorites ATS | 7-9 | 18-30 |
| Over/Under | 5-11 | 20-28 |
The ’Dogs Are Still Barking
We’ll get to the insane Over/Under record in prime-time games in a moment. But let’s start with an NFL point spread trend that held up in Week 3: Underdogs got the job done yet again.
Granted, ’dog hunting last week didn’t result in a cash windfall that will put you in the same tax bracket as a Kardashian — pups went 9-7 ATS, as they did in Week 2. Still, through the first three weeks of the season, underdogs are hitting at a 62.5 percent clip (30-18 ATS). Even more shocking, ’dogs have pulled off outright upsets in 21 of those 48 games—good for a 43.8 percent hit rate (also known as Zach Wilson’s completion percentage).
A deeper dive into the numbers reveals that oddsmakers are consistently misfiring on games in which they’re hanging tight lines. To wit: Favorites of 6 points or more are 15-4 straight-up and a profitable 11-8 ATS. Also, double-digit favorites are 4-for-4 on the scoreboard and 3-1 versus the number. However, favorites of 3.5 points or less are just 8-14 SU (36.4%) and a woeful 6-16 ATS (27.3%) — and that includes the Week 3 finale when Dallas (-3.5) throttled the Eagles 41-21.
This week’s games featuring short favorites: Washington (-1.5) at Atlanta; Chicago (-3) vs. Detroit; Cleveland (-2) at Minnesota; Miami (-2) vs. Indianapolis; San Francisco (-3) vs. Seattle; L.A. Chargers (-3.5) vs. Las Vegas.
And Then There Were Three …
If you had the Cowboys, Broncos, and Panthers as the only unbeaten teams against the spread after three weeks, come collect … oh, who are we kidding? Nobody had that.
Sure, Denver (Giants/Jaguars/Jets) and Carolina (Jets/Saints/Texans) have faced about as much resistance to this point in the season as Ronald Reagan did against Walter Mondale back in November 1984. But who would’ve predicted that a team coached by Mike McCarthy — who manages a game clock worse than a 16-year-old manages an alarm clock — would be sitting at 3-0 ATS?
One thing we know for sure is this time next week, we’ll still have one (but no more than two) undefeated teams against the spread. That’s because while the Broncos (-1.5) host the Baltimore Ravens late Sunday afternoon, the Cowboys (-5) host the Panthers in the early slate of games.
At the opposite end of the bankroll spectrum, four teams remain winless against the number — and two of those 0-3 ATS squads are actually favored this week. As mentioned above, Washington is laying a short price at the Falcons, while the Chiefs — who are merely 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games dating to last season — are a consensus 7.5-point chalk at Philadelphia.
We’re gonna guess you know who the other two money-burning teams are, but we’ll mention them anyway: the Jaguars and Jets. Jacksonville, which has been outscored 91-53 so far in the Urban Meyer era, is catching 7.5 points at Cincinnati on Thursday night. New York, which through three games has been thumped to the tune of 70-20, is catching the same number against the Titans … at home!
One last noteworthy item on the “side” side of things: The point spread hasn’t mattered all that much in the early going, as straight-up winners are 39-9 ATS (81.3%).
An ‘Over’-Flow Of Cash
60, 48, 60, 59, 71, 52, 33, 58, 62.
No, those aren’t your winning Power Ball numbers this week. They’re not even the scores on McCarthy’s last nine IQ tests (but that’s a solid guess). Rather, those are the final scores of the first nine Thursday/Sunday/Monday night games.
As a result, eight of those nine contests have soared over the total. The only thing keeping that 8-1 Over record from being 9-0? Davis Mills, who “played” quarterback for the Texans in last Thursday’s 24-9 loss to the Panthers. (Apparently, David Carr didn’t answer his phone.)
We know what you’re thinking: “Wow, eight of nine prime-time games have gone over the total? Really?” Yes, really. But that’s not the most remarkable thing. This is: For the season, the Under is 28-20 (58.3%)—and that includes an 11-5 mark in Week 3! That means if you strip away the nine prime-time games, the Under has cashed in 27 of 39 games (69.2%).
But wait, there’s more! In the last two weeks, the Under is a stunning 15-3 in the early slate of Sunday games.
To repeat, we’re here to provide information, not advice. That being said, you might want to consider setting your alarm clock to go off early on Sunday morning so you can get your Under action in. And unlike a 16-year-old, don’t hit the damn snooze!
