As a rule, we don’t pay much attention to guarantees unless they’re coming from the mouths of Joe Namath or, say, Anthony Soprano. As such, we don’t tend to issue them ourselves.
Now here comes the exception to our own rule: We guarantee that you’ll see the Lions and Jaguars square off in the Super Bowl this season before you’ll see a season-long NFL betting trend hit at a 100 percent clip. While we’re at it, we also guarantee that you’ll see Roger Goodell select a speed-metal band as the halftime act of that Lions-Jags Super Bowl before you’ll even see a 66 percent trend hold up over a 17-game season.
So as you digest the second installment of our season-long NFL Trends Report, remember not to make any rash wagering decisions based on what’s transpired through 32 games of a 272-game season. A lot can (and will) change, and possibly soon. We just don’t want one of those “changes” to be your bankroll vanishing.
Now that we’ve gotten that public-service announcement out of the way, let’s analyze the more intriguing NFL point spread and totals trends that have developed through the first two weeks of the 2020-21 season. Remember to check back throughout the season as we keep a running tally of ATS and Over/Under results.
Note: All statistics based off closing numbers per VegasInsider.com.
NFL Betting Trends: ATS & Over/Under
| Trends | Last Week | Season Overall |
| Favorites SU | 11-5 | 18-14 |
| Favorites ATS | 7-9 | 11-21 |
| Over/Under | 8-8 | 15-17 |
Who Let The Dogs Out … Again?
Underdogs dominated the opening week of the NFL campaign the same way your plus-sized uncle dominates the bowl of mashed potatoes at Thanksgiving dinner. Not only did ’dogs cover the spread in 12 of 16 games in Week 1, but they won nine of those contests outright.
Things were much more balanced in Week 2—in fact, favorites took care of business in 11 of 16 games, at least on the scoreboard. It was a different story at the betting window, though, as underdogs went 9-7 ATS.
That brings the season ATS tally to 21-11 in favor of underdogs—an incredible (albeit unsustainable) 65.6 percent winning percentage. A big reason for this early-season ’dog dominance? Short pups are proving profitable. Underdogs of 3.5 points or fewer are 11-5 ATS.
The Week 3 slate features a trio of games that fall within that range: The Patriots are 3-point home favorites over the Saints; the Giants are a 3-point home chalk over the Falcons; and the Seahawks are laying 1.5 points at the Vikings. Also, depending on the sportsbook, the Rams are ranging from a 1.5-point favorite to a 1-point ’dog against the visiting Buccaneers.
Several other games are straddling the 3.5- to 4-point fence, with the Raiders (vs. Dolphins), 49ers (vs. Packers), and Cowboys (vs. Eagles) all favored in that range.
Meet The Top Five And Bottom Five
It’s difficult to believe that just two weeks into the season, only five teams remain unbeaten against the spread, but that’s indeed the case. Two of those squads hail from the same division (the AFC West’s Raiders and Broncos); the other three are the Cowboys, Panthers and surprising Texans. Interestingly, the latter two teams square off in Houston on Thursday night, with Carolina installed as a 7.5-point road favorite.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, five squads have yet to deliver the goods for bettors: The Falcons, Jaguars, Chiefs, Jets, and Washington are all 0-2 ATS.
From a divisional standpoint, only the AFC West (5-3 ATS) sports a profitable point spread mark; no other division is better than .500 against the number.
Broncos Expected To Trample Jets
Remember that 65.6 percent hit rate for underdogs? Well, it hasn’t stopped oddsmakers from hanging some big numbers in Week 3. Seven teams are favored by at least 6.5 points, with the biggest chalk of the week being Denver. The Broncos, who return home after starting the season with a pair of double-digit road victories, are consensus 10.5-point favorites over the winless Jets.
If things hold to early-season form, those big favorites stand a good chance of picking up a victory this week but not necessarily picking up the cash: Favorites of 6.5 points or more are 8-3 straight up but only 5-6 ATS.
Interestingly, the teams that have worn the Big Dog of the Week crown—the Steelers at Buffalo in Week 1 and the Titans at Seattle in Week 2—both sprung outright upsets as 6.5-point pups.
It’s All Over In Prime Time
It was a banner Sunday early on for Under bettors in Week 2, as seven of the nine games in the 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT slot stayed low. Of those seven games, six featured combined totals of 37 points or less.
The script flipped in a big way from there, however, as five of the final six games of the week soared over the total (the lone exception being the Cowboys’ 20-17 win at the Chargers). Throw in Washington’s 30-29 victory over the Giants on Thursday night, and the Over/Under for the week was a wash (eight Overs, eight Unders).
Given that the Under held a slim 9-7 edge in Week 1, it’s safe to surmise that betting NFL totals so far has been a crapshoot, right? Not exactly. Those who have rolled the dice on the Over in games with a total of 50-plus points are 7-2, while those who have backed the Under in games with a total of 45 points or less are 7-1.
Impressive trends to say the least—yet not nearly as impressive (and stunning) as this one: Even though oddsmakers usually shade totals to the Over for standalone Thursday/Sunday/Monday night games, the Over in those marquee matchups is a perfect 6-for-6.
Leaves us to wonder what will happen first: The Under hits in a prime-time game or Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy finally learns the nuances of clock management? You know, come to think of it, maybe it is possible for a season-long NFL trend to hit at a 100 percent clip …