Each week, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA betting props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Here are our five favorite NBA betting props from Wednesday’s slate of 12 games.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 1 p.m. ET on Dec. 15.
Cleveland Cavaliers: PG Darius Garland
The Prop: 8.5 assists (vs. Houston)
The Odds: Over +105/Under -135
Garland has flourished during the injury absence of backcourt mate Collin Sexton, averaging 20.8 points, 7.7 assists, and 1.4 steals over the last 17 games.
While that average assist total falls short of Wednesday’s prop number, Garland has notched at least nine dimes in seven of his last 12 games dating to Nov. 22. Also, the Vanderbilt product has averaged exactly 8.5 assists in his last 12 matchups against Western Conference foes, clearing this prop in half of those contests.
While the Rockets have been surging in the standings (8-2 last 10 games), they still rank 28th in scoring defense, allowing 112.6 points per game.
Throw in the fact the Cavaliers have scored 100 or more points in 12 straight outings — including averaging 115 points during an ongoing four-game winning streak — and Garland should have plenty of opportunities to dish dimes in this one.
Editor’s Note: New to NBA player props? Check out our complete NBA Prop Betting Guide to get up to speed!
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers
The Prop: -1.5, first quarter
The Odds: Heat -105/76ers -115
Let’s start with this interesting trend: The Sixers are 5-0 ATS in first-quarter action this season when scoring at least 30 points in the opening stanza.
In those five particular games, Philadelphia held first-quarter leads of 5, 12, 3, 9 and six points — all of which covered this prop number. The most recent example: The 76ers jumped out to a 32-27 lead against Utah on Dec. 9.
Philadelphia is 9-3 ATS at home in first-quarter play, while Miami is 7-9 ATS on the road in the opening 12 minutes. Additionally, the 76ers are averaging 27.6 first-quarter points (13th best in the league), slightly better than the Heat’s average of 26.9 ppg (19th).
San Antonio Spurs: PG Dejounte Murray
The Prop: 34.5 points/rebounds/assists (vs. Charlotte)
The Odds: Over -110/Under -120
Murray racked up a triple-double in his most recent game Monday night, but his final totals — 10 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists vs. New Orleans — still missed tonight’s number by 2.5.
On the plus side, Murray has averaged 35.8 points/rebounds/assists in his last 14 games — and that includes two clunkers when he managed just 19 and 15 combined points/rebounds/assists. He cleared this number 10 times in the other dozen contests, including notching 39 or more points/rebounds/assists seven times.
Speaking of that 14-game run, the efficient and proficient Murray scored more than 26 points just once while shooting 43.8 percent from the field and 35.1 percent from long distance.
In this contest, Murray will be looking to light up a Hornets squad that has lost six straight games while allowing an average of 119.8 points along the way. So the matchup figures to favor Murray, as do these stats: For the season, he’s averaging 18 points, 8.4 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game, and he’s third in the league with four triple-doubles.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets
The Prop: 114.5 combined points, first half
The Odds: Over -110/Under +110
Have you seen the Matt Damon/cryptocurrency commercial with the memorable tagline, “Fortune favors the brave”?
Well, that sentiment also has its place in the risk-taking world of sports betting. Which brings us to a strong case for considering the Under on this prop:
The Timberwolves and their opponents have combined for 115-plus points just once in their last eight games (Minnesota trailed Utah 60-59 at the break on Dec. 8). Meanwhile, Denver has eclipsed this prop just three times in its last eight.
Additionally, both teams have trended Under the first-half total this season, with Minnesota at 5-6 to the Over and the Nuggets at 5-7.
The Nuggets were modestly more successful for the same sample size, eclipsing 115 points three times in the first half (128, 139, and 123 points). The four other contests, however, yielded only 100, 95, 109, and 110 combined points at the break.
Additionally, Minnesota has a 5-6 record with halftime totals on the road this season. And Denver’s mark for hitting 24-minute home totals is just 5-7.
Also, in their lone meeting earlier this season, these Northwest Division rivals combined for just 90 points, as the Timberwolves held a 47-43 halftime lead.
If you do like the Over on this prop, you can hang your hat on this: Both teams will have fresh legs, as Minnesota last played Sunday while Denver has been idle since Saturday.
Utah Jazz: C Rudy Gobert
The Prop: 13.5 rebounds (vs. L.A. Clippers)
The Odds: Over -105/Under -125
Gobert has collected double-digit rebounds in 16 of his last 17 games … however, he registered 14-plus boards in only nine of those outings.
The three-time Defensive Player of the Year did clear this number seven times in Utah’s first eight games. However, he’s done so just five times in his last 12 contests.
The Clippers rank 24th in rebounds allowed (46.4 per game), which bodes well for the Over here. However, in last year’s Western Conference semifinals, Gobert notched 14-plus rebounds against Los Angeles just once (20 in Game 2).
