MLB MVP Picks: Bettors Throwing Cash At Three Longshots

Luis Robert #88 of the Chicago White Sox reacts to hitting a single in the first inning during Game 2 of the ALDS between the Chicago White Sox and the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on Friday, October 8, 2021 in Houston, Texas.
Image Credit: Cooper Neill/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Opening Day is around the corner, and bettors are putting some cold, hard cash behind MLB MVP Picks for the American and National League. However, as we all know, baseball is a loooong season, and there will be many changes to the AL and NL MVP odds as we embark on this six-month journey.

So which MLB MVP candidates are bettors flocking to before the season? It’s not reigning AL MVP Shohei Ohtani or phenom Juan Soto. The answers may surprise you.

All odds and betting data via BetMGM as of April 6, 2022. 

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Player Team Odds
Shohei Ohtani LA Angels +350
Mike Trout LA Angels +450
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto Blue Jays +500
Aaron Judge NY Yankees +2000
Rafael Devers Boston Red Sox +2000
Wander Franco Tampa Bay Rays +2000
Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins +2000
Luis Robert Chicago White Sox +2200
Jose Ramirez Cleveland Guardians +2500
Yordan Alvarez Houston Astros +2500

AL MVP Pick: Luis Robert – Chicago White Sox (+2200)

Luis Robert #88 of the Chicago White Sox flies out to center
Image Credit: Jason Miller/Getty Images

Luis Robert checks in at +2200 on BetMGM’s AL MVP odds board, ranking eighth among candidates for the award. The betting community sees value in that price, prompting them to throw some cash on the White Sox slugger to win AL MVP. 

Because of that, BetMGM reports Robert as their most significant liability to win AL MVP. The White Sox center fielder has accounted for 23.5% of AL MVP tickets and 26.5% of the money in this AL MVP odds market. That’s the highest of any MLB MVP pick across the board, representing significant action on the 24-year-old power hitter. 

Robert had an injury-shortened season in 2021, but reports suggest he’s feeling 100% heading into the 2022 campaign. The White Sox center fielder played 68 games in 2021, hitting 13 homers with 43 RBI and a .338 average. If we extrapolate that to an expected 650 plate appearances, those numbers balloon to 30+ HR, 95-100 RBI, and an agreeable batting average (if — big if — he stays healthy). That would be enough to put him in contention for the league leaders of those major categories while being an obvious contender for AL MVP. 

Editor’s Note: Looking for a full AL MVP odds breakdown? Check out our complete betting guide


Player Team Odds
Juan Soto Washington Nationals +300
Ronald Acuna Jr. Atlanta Braves +700
Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies +1000
Mookie Betts LA Dodgers +1000
Freddie Freeman LA Dodgers +1200
Trea Turner LA Dodgers +1600
Francisco Lindor NY Mets +2000
Fernando Tatis Jr. San Diego Padres +2500
Matt Olson Atlanta Braves +2500
Christian Yelich Milwaukee Brewers +3000

NL MVP Pick: Marcell Ozuna (+8000)

Marcell Ozuna #20 of the Atlanta Braves in action against the New York Yankees
Image Credit: Rich Schultz/Getty Images

Ozuna is an interesting NL MVP pick who is getting plenty of love from bettors. He is tied for 27th on BetMGM’s NL MVP odds board, and the betting community believes his +8000 price tag represents fair value.  

BetMGM reports that Ozuna makes up 13.8% of the NL MVP odds handle. That’s more than any other player on the board. 

Of course, Ozuna served an MLB suspension for domestic violence last year, cutting his season short to just 48 games. Nevertheless, the 31-year-old Atlanta slugger is slated to return to one of the best lineups in baseball this spring, and bettors believe he’ll pick up where he left off. In his last full season (2019 with the Cardinals), Ozuna crushed 29 homers with 89 RBI, so the betting optimism is understandable for this longshot price. 

Editor’s Note: Looking for a full NL MVP odds breakdown? Check out our complete betting guide

NL MVP Sleeper: Ketel Marte (+10000)

Ketel Marte #4 of the Arizona Diamondbacks tosses his bat after being called out
Image Credit: Norm Hall/Getty Images

Ketel Marte of the Arizona Diamondbacks is tied for 35th on BetMGM’s NL MVP odds board. However, bettors across the country believe that’s too low, and they are placing their money on Marte to win NL MVP at +10000 odds. In other words, a $100 bet on Marte would yield an excellent $10,000 return. Because of that inflated payout, BetMGM reports that Marte is their highest liability to win NL MVP as we enter the 2022 season.

Marte enjoyed an impressive breakout campaign in 2019 with 32 homers, 94 RBI, and a .329 average. Unfortunately, his 2021 stint didn’t go according to plan, playing just 90 games with 14 homers and 50 RBI. However, if Marte can stay healthy, he could bounce back to those 2019 ways. That would put him in contention to win NL MVP (and make bettors a lot of money in the process).