Mets vs Yankees Odds, Prediction, Best Bet: Happy Birthday Max Scherzer?

New York Mets starting pitcher Max Scherzer (21) walks off the field after the top of the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Citi Field.
Image Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Last night, the New York Mets drew first blood in the two-game Subway Series against the New York Yankees. The Yankees have an uphill battle to avoid the brooms against ace Max Scherzer tonight on ESPN.

However, the Bronx Bombers’ offense always gives them a puncher’s chance. So what should baseball fans expect in the second game of the Battle for the Big Apple? We’ll look at the betting info and give you all the tools you need to make informed wagers, including offering our best bet for the contest.

Mets vs Yankees Odds

Yankees (German)
+1.5 (-150)+152O 7 (-122)
@ Mets (Scherzer)-1.5 (+125)-180U 7 (+100)

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 10 am ET on July 27.

German Has Much to Prove

German vs Mets: Domingo German began the 2022 season on the 60-Day IL with right shoulder impingement syndrome. As a result, the righty has logged 20.1 innings in the minors while rehabbing the injury and made his first start for the Yankees in 2022 on July 21 against the Houston Astros. The Astros gave him a rude awakening, pummeling him for five runs on six hits (two homers), one walk, and two strikeouts in only three innings. Thus, German has much to prove in his second start of the 2022 campaign.

Additionally, save for his rock-solid 4.03 ERA in a breakout 2019 season, German has had underwhelming marks, including a 5.57 ERA in 85.2 innings in 2018 and a 4.58 ERA in 2021. Sadly, the sledding won’t be much easier for German tonight.

Mets offense: The Mets have roughed up righties this year, ranking sixth in wRC+ (112) against them this season. Unfortunately, they haven’t been as sharp lately, owning a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Still, they battled some injuries during their recent stretch and still had a literal average offense by the definition of wRC+.

Fortunately, they’ve also been undeterred by their pitcher-friendly home park, as evidenced by tying for fifth in wRC+ (116) in home games this year. In addition, the Mets’ offense is legit and deep. Since last year, eight members of the Mets’ projected starting lineup have had at least a 110 wRC+ against righties, headlined by the top hitters, Pete Alonso (141 wRC+), Starling Marte (135), trade acquisition Daniel Vogelbach (132), and leadoff hitter Brandon Nimmo (131).

Birthday Boy Scherzer Aging Like Fine Wine

Scherzer vs Yankees: Scherzer will have a chance to give the home crowd something to cheer about on his 38th birthday. We should all hope to age as well as Mad Max. In a dozen starts spanning 75 innings, he’s had a sparkling 2.28 ERA, 2.56 SIERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 33.8 K%.

In addition, he hasn’t shown any hitch in his giddy-up since returning from the IL on July 5. Specifically, he’s pitched at least six innings in all four games, allowing no more than two runs and striking out at least eight in each of them. In total, he’s had a 1.78 ER and 2.10 xFIP in 25.1 innings since his reinstatement from the IL.

Yankees offense: The Yankees have lived up to their Bronx Bomber billing in 2022. They are second in wRC+ (119) and ISO (.192) against righties. They’ve also been MLB’s best offense over the last 30 days, hammering pitchers for a 137 wRC+ and .211 ISO. Further, no club has been better on the road than the Yankees. They have had an MLB-high .341 wOBA and 123 wRC+ in away games.

Sadly, their lineup is without a key cog since Giancarlo Stanton is on the IL. Nevertheless, their lineup still packs a punch and has a blend of lefties and righties. They’re also deep. Eight members of their projected starting lineup have had a 103 wRC+ or better against righties this year.

Mets vs Yankees Prediction

The Yankees have an offense that can give even MLB’s elite hurlers fits. Regardless, Scherzer is on a different level, and Aaron Judge has the misfortune of being right-handed against the star hurler. Scherzer has held righties to a .236 wOBA, allowing only one homer to the 153 righties he’s faced. Lefties haven’t had much reason to celebrate, either. They’ve had a .268 wOBA against Scherzer.

The Yankees have a bullpen edge, ranking second in ERA (2.94). However, the Mets haven’t been slouches, ranking ninth in bullpen ERA (3.50). The most significant advantage between the two clubs is between Scherzer and German, favoring the hosts.

Finally, according to Baseball-Reference, the Mets are an outstanding 30-17 in home games. The Yankees are a stellar 29-20 in road tilts, but they have an uphill battle tonight. Therefore, I expect the Mets to win, and given the discrepancy between the starters, I’ll lay the 1.5 runs to get the tasty +125 line at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Pick: Mets -1.5 Runs (+125) | +125 at FanDuel Sportsbook

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