One big week, one iffy game, one signature play, one costly blunder. All of these factors shape the Heisman race — and consequently, the Heisman Trophy betting odds — from one week to the next. Which is why Props.com has continued to update college football bettors on the latest Heisman Trophy betting odds and action each Tuesday.
Similar to last week, the list of contenders has shrunk. That’s because the respective odds for quarterbacks Matt Corral (Ole Miss), Desmond Ridder (Cincinnati), and Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh) have either plateaued or plunged in recent weeks. Consequently, we’ve pared down the listing of Heisman hopefuls to three viable candidates.
Odds via BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings, FanDuel, and TwinSpires, and updated as of 2 p.m. ET Nov. 16.
QB Bryce Young (Alabama)
BetMGM: +175
Caesars: +180
DraftKings: +180
FanDuel: +200
TwinSpires: +200
Season Stats: 71.0% completions, 3,025 yards passing, 33 TDs, 3 INTs; 51 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs
Last Saturday, Young carved up outmatched New Mexico State for 270 passing yards (on 21 of 23 completions) and five touchdowns in one half. The staggering tallies against a grossly inferior foe might have preserved Young’s status as the Heisman favorite, but they didn’t create more separation between him and the other two plausible Heisman hopefuls — Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud and Michigan State tailback Kenneth Walker III.
Here’s why: New Mexico State might be the nation’s worst FBS team. Out of 130 schools, the 1-9 Aggies rank 127th overall in scoring defense and 123rd in total defense. Stroud, Corral, Pickett, or even long-shot Heisman candidate QB Sam Hartman of Wake Forest would be projected to produce similarly stellar numbers against NMSU.
Simply put, Saturday’s performance was nothing more than an expected stat-padding showcase for Young. It was potentially important on one level, though: Young’s completion rate now hovers above 70 percent — a stratospheric level of accuracy matched only by previous Heisman winners Joe Burrow (2019 with LSU) and Baker Mayfield (2017 with Oklahoma).
Young’s first-half cameo vs. NMSU was a tune-up for what lies ahead over the next three Saturdays, as Alabama (No. 2 in the AP poll/College Football Playoff rankings) closes the regular season against No. 25 Arkansas and Auburn (both at home). Win one of those contests, and Young gets a bonus game Dec. 4 in Atlanta against top-ranked Georgia in the SEC title tilt.
Should he put up big numbers in victories over Arkansas and Auburn, then play well (win or lose) against Georgia, Young almost will certainly lock up the Heisman.
QB C.J. Stroud (Ohio State)
BetMGM: +225
Caesars: +250
DraftKings: +220
FanDuel: +150
TwinSpires: +250
Season Stats: 68.8% completions, 3,036 yards passing, 30 TDs, 5 INTs
Ohio State’s 59-31 demolition of No. 19 Purdue last Saturday did wonders for Stroud’s candidacy, with the redshirt freshman accounting for 361 passing yards and five touchdown passes. And he accumulated most of those stats while leading the Buckeyes to 45 first-half points.
Stroud’s Heisman stock has rocketed up the charts like no other player in recent weeks, so much that he might be closer to overtaking Bryce Young at No. 1 than dropping below Kenneth Walker at the No. 3 slot.
For the year, Stroud has enjoyed three games of 400-plus yards passing, along with five outings of four or more TD passes.
The California native also shepherds the nation’s No. 1 scoring offense (averaging 46.3 points per game) while having access to the country’s best playmaking quartet — receivers Chris Olave (51 catches, 708 yards, 11 TDs), Garrett Wilson (53 catches, 813 yards, 9 TDs), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (59 catches, 1,027 yards, 5 TDs), and tailback TreVeyon Henderson (1,258 total yards, 17 TDs).
There are more growth opportunities ahead, too, with Stroud drawing a pair of current top-10 teams (Michigan State, Michigan) in the next two weeks. Those marquee matchups provide Stroud two maximum-exposure opportunities to solidify his standing as the the country’s most unstoppable offensive talent — regardless of position.
Should he take full advantage of those opportunities by putting up monster numbers in blowout wins — then do it again in the Big Ten championship game — Stroud could conceivably knock Young off the Heisman front-runner pedestal.
RB Kenneth Walker III (Michigan State)
BetMGM: +350
Caesars: +280
DraftKings: +280
FanDuel: +450
TwinSpires: +200
Season Stats: 1,483 rushing yards, 17 rushing TDs, 6.5 yards per carry; 85 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD
On the heels of Saturday’s robust 172 total yards (143 rushing) and two touchdowns against Maryland, Walker’s Heisman odds improved slightly this week at BetMGM and Caesars but remained the same at DraftKings and FanDuel.
Curiously, Walker’s odds dipped at TwinSpires, which was the first major book to champion the nation’s leading rusher as an elite Heisman candidate back in mid-October. The odds drop could be because TwinSpires took some big action this week on Young and/or Stroud. Or it could be that the folks in TwinSpires’ risk room believe Walker just won’t be able to do enough to get past the two quarterbacks.
Luckily, Walker still “controls his destiny” in one regard: He faces Stroud and the Buckeyes in Columbus on Saturday.
If the No. 7 Spartans can shock Ohio State (No. 4 in the College Football Playoff rankings) and Walker plays a starring role — and he pretty much would have to — that might convince oddsmakers to join forces with those in the national media who view Walker (on pace for 1,780 rushing yards/20 total TDs) as the actual Heisman front-runner.
And make no mistake: Despite slotting just three slots below Ohio State in the CFP rankings, a Spartans win at Ohio State would be a huge upset, as the Buckeyes are 20-point favorites at BetPrep.com.
