The Props crew had a nice, thick slice of humble pie after going 0-3 on Thursday’s Best Bets. What went wrong? Well, let’s recap.
First off, Iowa State got absolutely dismantled by Texas Tech. Then Tobias Harris somehow notched 16+ points in a blowout home loss to the Nets. And, finally, our NHL Prop selection, Johnny Gaudreau, had a hat trick but failed to nab an assist.
That’s just how it goes sometimes. But hey, look at the bright side. We still have a winning Best Bets record at 15-12-1. The Bostonian vs. The Book is 3-1 on the week, and our NBA Props are 5-2 on the year.
Let’s dive into our three Friday Best Bets, starting with a feisty college basketball underdog.
Track Record
Thursday: 0-3
Year-To-Date: 15-12-1
Bostonian vs. The Book: 5-2-1
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 2-6
NBA Props: 5-2
NHL Props: 3-2
College Basketball Side: TCU Horned Frogs Vs. Kansas Jayhawks
The bet: TCU +8.5 (vs. Kansas)
The odds: -110
Where to bet: BetMGM
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book Podcast
On Thursday, The Bostonian vs. The Book suffered their first loss of the week when underdog Iowa State (+8.5) got destroyed in the Big 12 Tournament. That didn’t deter podcast co-hosts Matt Perrault and Dave Sharapan, though, as they went right back to the well with another Big 12 underdog. The pick: TCU +8.5 against mighty Kansas in the conference semifinals.
Perrault sees value in this line, and it relates to the total: “I think this game goes Under the total [of 139]. TCU will try to grind this game down and keep it close.”
Perrault also noted that he’s wary of Kansas’ mindset after Thursday’s 24-point victory against West Virginia. Sharapan was on board with the Horned Frogs bet, noting the conference tournament upsets that occurred earlier in the day, including Illinois (Big Ten) and Auburn (SEC) both losing as No. 1 seeds.
The Jayhawks are the top seed in the Big 12.
“Sometimes these [upset] days start like this and keep going,” said Sharapan. “Dare I say, TCU can win this game?”
It’s certainly happened before — and quite recently. On March 1, TCU dumped Kansas 74-64 at home. Two days later, the Horned Frogs went to Kansas and nearly pulled off another stunner before falling 72-68 while easily covering the 11-point spread.
Interested in riding TCU among our Friday Best Bets? The best number/price is TCU +8.5 (-110) at BetMGM.
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Perrault listed three other bets he likes during Friday’s Bostonian vs. The Book podcast – two NHL totals and one other college basketball side. You can listen to the replay on Youtube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts.
NBA Prop: Boston Celtics F Jayson Tatum
The bet: Over 40.5 points/rebounds/assists (vs. Detroit)
The odds: -125
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: Jay Clemons via Friday NBA Props
Friday will mark Tatum’s fourth meeting with the Pistons in the last five weeks, which seems like a lapse on the part of the NBA’s schedule-makers.
How did Tatum fare in the previous three encounters? He averaged 36 points/rebounds/assists and cleared tonight’s 40.5 total just once (34, 31, 43 PRAs).
Does that make the Under a lock on this Friday NBA prop? Heck no!
Here’s why:
Tatum has been a man possessed lately, rolling for 52, 62, 48, and 48 points/rebounds/assists in his last four games (52.5 average). During this span, the Duke product averaged 42 points per outing — which by itself would beat Friday’s prop number.
In seven games since Feb. 24, Tatum is shooting 49.7 percent from the field and 40.8 percent from beyond the arc. He attempted 20-plus field goals in all seven contests … and chucked up at least seven 3-pointers on six occasions.
In other words, it’s difficult to envision the Pistons — who field the NBA’s fourth-worst field-goal defense (47.4%) — putting the clamps on the red-hot Tatum. Especially since Bulls playmaker DeMar DeRozan crushed Detroit for 36 points just 48 hours ago.
The Celtics, who were idle Thursday night, are averaging 115.3 points per contest in their last 17 games, and they posted victories in 15 of those outings. The biggest reason for this 15-2 SU spurt? Tatum. Might as well ride the Boston big man one more time Friday night.
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NBA Prop: San Antonio Spurs G Dejounte Murray
The odds: -128
Where to bet: FanDuel
From: BetPrep Prop of the day via BetPrep.com
- Murray is averaging 8.4 rebounds per game this season
- He’s recorded eight or more rebounds five times in his last eight contests overall and eight times in his last 10 home games
- Murray has pulled down at least eight boards in 20 of the last 24 games after San Antonio failed to cover the point spread in its previous contest
With the NBA’s leading rebounder, Rudy Gobert, on its roster, Utah obviously is strong on the glass. That just means the Spurs know they need their floor general to crash the boards hard in this one. And with this prop number being nearly a full rebound below Murray’s baseline on the season, we’re getting solid betting value.
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