The 3.0 version of the 2021 College Football Playoff rankings have been released, and per usual, the playoff committee’s rankings don’t exactly align with the perceptions of oddsmakers (let alone those who vote in the Associated Press Top 25 poll).
With three weeks before Selection Sunday on Dec. 5, much can change among the top four. Well, maybe three of the four, since the school sitting atop both the CFP rankings/CFP odds board appears to be a lock for either the Cotton Bowl or Orange Bowl on Dec. 31.
Props.com breaks down the latest College Football Playoff odds heading into Week 12.
Odds via FanDuel and updated as of 11 a.m. ET Nov. 17.
Georgia Bulldogs
Record: 10-0
College Football Playoff Ranking: 1st (last week: 1st)
AP Ranking: 1st (last week: 1st)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -3000/No +1260
There’s only one way to interpret Georgia’s odds jumping from -2400 to -3000 in a week at FanDuel: If the top-ranked Bulldogs carry an undefeated record into the SEC championship game — lightweights Charleston Southern and Georgia Tech remain on the regular-season slate — they’re making the College Football Playoff, regardless of the result Dec. 4 in Atlanta.
It’s a comforting thought for nervous UGA fans, but the presumption has plenty of merit. The dynamic Dawgs boast the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense (7.5 points per game), the No. 2 total defense (247.0 yards per game), and they won all eight of their SEC games by an average margin of 31.9 points.
The closest any SEC opponent came to beating Georgia? Kentucky, which lost 30-13 in Athens in October. The most points an SEC opponent scored against Georgia? 17, which Tennessee tallied last week — but only because the Vols found the end zone on fourth down with less than four minutes remaining in the game.
The only lingering playoff drama for Georgia: Would Bulldogs fans prefer trekking to Miami (Orange Bowl) or Arlington, Texas (Cotton Bowl) for the College Football Playoff semifinals?
Ohio State Buckeyes
Record: 9-1
College Football Playoff Ranking: 4th (last week: 4th)
AP Ranking: 5th (last week: 6th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -290/No +215
High-flying Ohio State, purveyors of the nation’s No. 1 scoring offense (averaging 46.3 points per game), has a clear path to the playoff — provided it can sweep through Michigan State (No. 7 CFP), Michigan (No. 6 CFP), and the Big Ten title game over the next three Saturdays.
If victorious on all three fronts, the Buckeyes also would likely avoid Georgia in the semifinal round (something that should motivate any prospective Power 5 champion).
On the down side, if Ohio State should fall to Michigan State this weekend, the Buckeyes — who haven’t lost a conference home game since 2015 — would be long shots to reach the conference championship game, since the Spartans would subsequently possess every tiebreaker advantage among the Big Ten East contenders.
In that regard, both Ohio State and Michigan State essentially control their playoff destiny — which should make Saturday’s showdown in Columbus all the more intense (and fun to watch).
Alabama Crimson Tide
Record: 9-1
College Football Playoff Ranking: 2nd (last week: 2nd)
AP Ranking: 2nd (last week: 3rd)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -118/No -108
Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: In the CFP’s seven-year history, no two-loss team has ever been invited to the event.
In theory, that means Alabama, which fell at Texas A&M on Oct. 9, cannot afford another setback. The Crimson Tide close the regular season against Arkansas (home this week) and Auburn (road next week), needing one win to claim the SEC West crown. But in reality, they need to win both to have a shot at defending their national championship — and in fact, history tells us they also must knock off Georgia in Atlanta on Dec. 4.
Then again, maybe Bama could become the first two-loss team to get in the playoff. Consider this caveat: Since 2014, the playoff’s inaugural season, college football has never had a 1-versus-2 showdown on Conference Championship Weekend.
So who’s to say how this year’s CFP committee might view No. 2 Alabama, with its No. 1-ranked strength of schedule, if it sustains a narrow loss to Georgia in the SEC title game? After all, as noted above, the Bulldogs shredded SEC opponents by an average of 31.9 points this season. Shouldn’t a razor-thin defeat to the nation’s most dominant team benefit an opponent with a playoff-worthy résumé?
Oregon Ducks
Record: 9-1
College Football Playoff Ranking: 3rd (last week: 3rd)
AP Ranking: 4th (last week: 5th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes +225/No -310
Oregon possesses FanDuel’s fourth-highest playoff odds, which should appease those affiliated with Pac-12 athletics.
But at +225, it’s hardly a ringing endorsement for an Oregon squad that already owns a résumé-topping road win over Ohio State and has a markedly higher strength-of-schedule than Cincinnati.
Put it all together and the Ducks’ playoff odds are a head-scratcher. Simply put, if Oregon handles its business at Utah (this week), Oregon State (next week), and perhaps Utah again (Pac-12 title game Dec. 4) over the next three weekends, there are no plausible scenarios in which the Ducks would miss the playoff field.
Ah, but all you have to do is look at this week’s Oregon-Utah line to see exactly where the oddsmakers are coming from: The Ducks are a 3.5-point underdog, meaning the books believe Oregon’s playoff bubble is about to burst in Salt Lake City.
Michigan Wolverines
Record: 9-1
College Football Playoff Ranking: 6th (last week: 6th)
AP Ranking: 8th (last week: 9th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes +250/No -360
If Michigan captures the Big Ten championship with victories over Maryland, No. 4 Ohio State, and most likely No. 15 Wisconsin or No. 17 Iowa in the conference title game (Dec. 4 in Indianapolis), the Wolverines will almost certainly overtake Cincinnati in the final CFP rankings.
In this hypothetical situation, a 12-1 Michigan squad would have the stronger strength of schedule rating, the greater strength-of-opponent quotient, and a higher overall conference rating.
That’s the good news. Here’s reality: All this speculation becomes meaningless if Michigan loses to Ohio State on Thanksgiving Saturday. For those with short memories, since 2001 the Buckeyes are 17-2 against the Wolverines, winning the last eight in a row.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Record: 10-0
College Football Playoff Ranking: 5th (last week: 5th)
AP Ranking: 3rd (last week: 2nd)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes +320/No -460
Cincinnati’s lack of respect among sportsbook operators doesn’t end with Michigan. Downward-trending Oklahoma (9-1 overall, No. 13 CFP) still has better playoff odds at FanDuel (+225/-310) than Cincinnati.
What’s the hidden message here? As long as Cincinnati resides in a non-Power 5 conference (American Athletic), it might never garner a realistic shot at making the playoff. That is, unless the Bearcats schedule a barrage of non-conference matchups against the likes of Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Oregon, Michigan, Ohio State, or Oklahoma in the coming years.
It’s become very clear that Group of Five stalwarts — such as Cincinnati this season and Central Florida in past seasons — require more scheduling oomph than simply beating Indiana and Notre Dame (No. 8 CFP) in consecutive road games (as the constantly disrespected Bearcats did in 2021).