Consistency. Next to “winning,” it’s the most important word in the lexicon of sports bettors. And those bettors aren’t picky when it comes to the nature of that consistency.
Consistently good, consistently bad — either is fine. Those teams whose performances bounce up and down like a 6-year-old on a trampoline after a candy binge? That’s what drives bettors bonkers.
So as we prepare to give thanks by overindulging on turkey, stuffing, pie, and adult beverages, let’s also take a moment to give thanks to those schools that have consistently delivered for college football bettors the past three months. We salute the best of the best (and the worst of the worst) in this week’s College Football Betting Trends Report (which, as always, considers only FBS vs. FBS results).
All ATS and Over/Under stats are reflective of VegasInsider.com’s final consensus lines.
Cowboys Buck The Odds
If the College Football Playoff field were set today, Michigan (No. 5), Notre Dame (No. 6), and Oklahoma State (No. 7) would be the group of friends that reached the front of the line just as the nightclub reached max capacity.
However, if the college football point-spread standings were a four-team playoff, all three schools would safely be in the field.
With its 23-0 whitewash of Texas Tech in Week 12, Oklahoma State improved to 9-1 ATS in FBS-specific contests. The Cowboys remain this season’s most profitable team, followed closely by Michigan (9-2 ATS). Appalachian State (8-2 ATS) sits third, just ahead of Notre Dame (8-3 ATS) and East Carolina (7-2-1).
As you might expect, all five squads currently are on incredible ticket-cashing runs: Oklahoma State has covered in a mind-blowing nine consecutive games; Michigan is 6-1 ATS in its last seven; Appalachian State has gotten to the window five straight times; and Notre Dame is on an 8-1 ATS roll, cashing in the last six in a row. As for East Carolina, it fell a half-point short of covering in last week’s three-point victory over Navy, ending a 7-0 ATS run.
All five are back in action in Week 13, each with a very intriguing matchup from a point-spread perspective (stay tuned).
Fade To Black
One of the biggest mistakes novice bettors make is jumping solely on the bandwagon of red-hot teams like the aforementioned quintet of moneymakers. What they sometimes forget: Fading squads that regularly fail to beat the spread is also mighty profitable. And there have been plenty of such squads this season.
Indiana, which had the best point-spread record in 2020 at 7-1 ATS, shares the cellar this season with New Mexico at 1-9 ATS in FBS contests. Six schools — Southern Miss, Florida International, Maryland, Rice, Temple, and TCU — are a slot above at 2-8 ATS, while Stanford is just a tick better at 3-8 ATS.
Maryland (0-7), Temple (1-8), and Stanford (0-6) have been particularly dreadful against the number of late. Texas joins Stanford on an 0-6 ATS nosedive, while Colorado State, Duke, and USC have failed to cover in five straight games.
Interestingly enough, two of the 2-8 ATS schools square off Saturday, as Southern Miss hosts Florida International. Not only are the Golden Eagles coming off the biggest upset of Week 12 — a 35-19 rout of Louisiana Tech as a 15.5-point underdog — but they’ve now cashed in consecutive games after being the 130th and final FBS school to cover a spread this season.
Southern Miss is a consensus 11-point favorite over FIU, which has failed to cover six of its last seven, including four in a row.
Laying It On The Line
So you’re saying a clash of point-spread bottom feeders doesn’t interest you? We get it. Perhaps these Week 13 matchups might get you to reach for your wallet:
— Oklahoma State goes for its 10th consecutive spread cover against Oklahoma, which is 4-7 ATS. The Cowboys are 4-point favorites in the annual rivalry game known as “Bedlam.”
— In the Bay Area, one team that’s cashed in six straight games (Notre Dame) visits one team that’s failed to cover in six straight games (Stanford). The Irish are laying 19.5 points on the road.
— East Carolina is a 14.5-point home underdog against Cincinnati, which is ranked No. 4 in this week’s College Football Playoff poll. As noted, the Pirates are on a 7-1 ATS run. The Bearcats started the season 5-0 ATS, then failed to cover their next four in a row (going 0-3 ATS on the road) before last week’s 48-14 home rout of SMU.
— Appalachian State puts its six-game ATS streak on the line when it hosts Sun Belt Conference rival Georgia Southern. The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS at home, while the Eagles have alternated spread covers in their last four road games. (The most recent: a 38-30 upset at Texas State two weeks ago.)
— And in the game of the week (if not the entire season), Michigan welcomes Ohio State to The Big House in a battle of one-loss teams vying for the Big Ten East title and a CFP berth. In addition to covering six of their last seven overall, the Wolverines are 5-1 ATS at home. Ohio State, which is an 8.5-point road favorite, is on a 6-2 ATS roll.
Saluting The ‘Underappreciated’
Finally, we tip the cap to those teams that have consistently delivered the goods from an Over/Under perspective — well, OK, from an Under perspective.
During a season in which the Under has cashed in nearly 54 percent of all FBS vs. FBS contests (350-300-4), none of the 130 schools playing major college football have been dominant to the Over. Entering Week 13, eight teams are 7-3 to the Over: Arkansas, Louisiana Tech, Pitt, Rice, Tennessee, Tulsa, Utah, and Western Kentucky.
Conversely, seven teams have been extremely profitable for Under bettors, none more so than Penn State (9-1 Under, including five in a row), Boise State (9-2 Under, including six in a row), and Illinois (9-2 Under).
Both Ole Miss (six straight Unders) and Washington have stayed low in eight of their 10 FBS-specific contests, while Purdue and Ball State are 8-3 to the Under.
Yeah, we know: It’s never fun to wager on Unders. But this season, doing so has been quite profitable — and it can be once again this weekend, as six of the top seven Under teams are in action. The only exception is Ball State, which already played, defeating Buffalo on Tuesday. Final score: 20-3. Total: 59.5.
If only they were all that easy …
