When I’m scanning wide receiver props, it’s the volume that always draws me in. How much time is a player on the field, and how often are they seeing the ball?
As long as both answers to those questions skew positive, it’s a strong bet to consider the pass-catcher.
If you’re a fan of data visualizations, I typically share a scatterplot to track how receivers stack up for those two important metrics:
Haven't scattered in too long
Targets/Game vs Snaps/Game for #NFL Pass Catchers Through Week 13 (min. 7 TGTs/game)
My takeaways:
‣ Diontae Johnson should be trusted weekly
‣ McLaurin is on the field a ton
‣ Elijah Moore sneaking into reliable volumeWhat sticks out to you? pic.twitter.com/x3kzrn6Ygw
— GriffyBets (@griffybets) December 7, 2021
If you explore that image, you’ll see DJ Moore’s name on the edge of the elite volume. He’s the clear WR1 in Carolina with a soft matchup this weekend, so let’s dig into why DJ Moore deserves your consideration for his receiving yards prop.
His over/under on DraftKings is currently set at 56.5 receiving yards (-115).
Moore’s Usage On The Panthers
Moore is the top receiver in Carolina, and it’s really not close. He has played 95% of the offensive snaps the past two weeks and hasn’t seen less than seven targets in a game all season.
That is steady volume in a league where players’ roles often ebb and flow throughout the year.
Moore has exceeded this projected line in eight of 12 games this season, good for a 67% hit rate. His 854 receiving yards on the season are 511 more than the next closest player and 566 more than the next closest WR.
Is there any doubt about the reliability of Moore?
#Panthers 2021 WR/TE Corp
Moore: 66 rec. / 854 yards / 4 TDs
Robby: 29 rec. / 288 yards / 3 TDs
Zylstra: 12 rec. / 188 yards / 1 TD
Thomas: 13 rec / 146 yards
Tremble: 13 rec / 120 yards / 1 TD
TMJ: 14 rec / 116 yards pic.twitter.com/ttnTS09Mik— IamMontyFetti 🖤💙✊🏾 (@4MR_Monty) December 8, 2021
Atlanta’s Defensive Struggles
The Falcons have had issues all over the team this season, but their secondary against receivers is nearing the top of the list after some of their recent performances.
The average of 160.2 yards allowed to WRs ranks 17th in the NFL, but they’ve been extremely generous in recent weeks.
In the past five weeks, Atlanta has surrendered 181.8 yards on average to the opposing team’s receiving cores. Their struggles culminated last week against Tampa Bay, when Chris Godwin put up this monster stat line:
Chris Godwin today:
15 REC (career-high)
143 YDSHe breaks the Bucs franchise record for catches in a game. pic.twitter.com/bgjITedh3b
— StatMuse (@statmuse) December 5, 2021
The Falcons are as good of a target as any for the remainder of the season when it comes to wide receiver props.
BetPrep Trend Supports The Pick
If you pop over to DJ Moore’s BetPrep page, the team projects him to finish with 69.39 receiving yards, far above his receiving yards line at DraftKings.
Their positive trends are built around 67.5, and despite that being much higher than on DK, there’s still a strong trend to accompany that number:
- Caught for 68+ receiving yards in 6 of his last 8 (75%) games when he had at least nine targets last game. (avg. 90.6 per gm)
Put this all together, and I’m rolling into Week 14 confident that DJ Moore can deliver us a winning prop ticket. He has the heavy volume I look for, gets a weak opponent, and has data on his side.
Good luck this weekend! For more on the NFL, be sure to follow me on Twitter, @griffybets.
