The NFC West might no longer be the NFL’s biggest, baddest bully on the divisional block, a consequence of this year’s Seahawks possessing a painfully ordinary defense and the 49ers being very inconsistent.
And with Russell Wilson and Jimmy Garoppolo out for several weeks with injuries, there’s also a sudden dip in quality at quarterback, after discussing MVP candidates Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford. (Sorry, Geno Smith supporters.)
But hey, it’s only mid-October. There’s still time to right the proverbial ship … or fall further from grace in one of the league’s most physically imposing divisions.
Props.com breaks down each club’s current NFC West odds to win the divisional crown, which every franchise in the division has done at least once since 2015.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, Circa Sports, DraftKings, FanDuel, and TwinSpires, and updated as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Oct. 15.
Arizona Cardinals (5-0 overall, 4-1 ATS)
BetMGM: +120
Circa Sports: -120
DraftKings: +110
FanDuel: +100
TwinSpires: +100
— Based on the above odds, Arizona has a 3-1-1 edge over the L.A. Rams in terms of being projected as the NFC West champ. The fact the Cardinals are the consensus favorite at the moment makes sense, considering they’re enjoying their first 5-0 start since 1974, and have quickly demonstrated a capacity for winning both shootouts and nip-and-tuck defensive battles. From Weeks 1-4, Arizona’s high-octane offense averaged 35 points per game, while the club posted three double-digit victories. Then last week, the Cardinals had fewer rushing yards, total yards, and less time of possession than the 49ers, but still eked out a 17-10 win as a 6-point favorite.
— Arizona’s offense ranks no lower than eighth overall in four major categories: Fourth in scoring offense (averaging 31.4 points per game), sixth in total offense (413.2 yards per game), seventh in passing offense (285.2 ypg), and eighth in rushing offense (128 ypg). On the other side of the ball, Arizona rates fourth in turnover differential (plus-5), sixth in scoring defense (19.0 ppg), and 10th in team sacks (12).
— QB Kyler Murray has been a whirling dervish for the Cardinals’ offense, posting top-10 rankings among quarterbacks in passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards, and rushing TDs. But he and his teammates face a difficult schedule down the stretch, with six of the remaining 11 games against the Browns, Packers, Rams, Panthers, Bears, and Cowboys (all current playoff teams).
Los Angeles Rams (4-1 overall, 3-2 ATS)
BetMGM: +120
Circa Sports: +120
DraftKings: +110
FanDuel: +145
TwinSpires: +130
— The Rams’ rank 12th in scoring defense, allowing 22.8 ppg, but that stat is a tad misleading: To date, just one opponent has notched more than 24 points against Los Angeles (Arizona put up 37).
— The early reviews on Matthew Stafford have been largely positive. He’s thrown for 300 yards and/or multiple touchdowns in all five games; he hasn’t tossed more than one interception in a game, and he owns a rock-steady 68.0 percent completion rate. Just don’t over-inflate Stafford’s chances of winning the MVP. That’s not his style.
— The Rams laid an egg at home against the Cardinals a few weeks back, which is why of the sportsbooks listed above, only DraftKings has Los Angeles and Arizona as co-favorites for the division crown. But the Rams can negate that loss — and wipe out any concern about losing a head-to-head tiebreaker — in mid-December when they travel to the desert … where L.A. has won six straight times by an average of 13.5 points per game.
— The Rams also have an easier short-term schedule than the Cardinals leading up to the Week 14 rematch. In the interim, Los Angeles takes trips to New York (Giants), Houston, San Francisco, and Green Bay, while hosting the Lions, Titans, and Jaguars. Except for the visit to Lambeau Field, the Rams figure to be favored in each of those contests — and in some cases heavily so.
San Francisco 49ers (2-3 SU/ATS)
BetMGM: +900
Circa Sports: +2600
DraftKings: +1200
FanDuel: +850
TwinSpires: +850
— Bookmakers no longer are buying the Niners’ preseason status as a Super Bowl dark horse. This could be due to San Francisco’s ongoing three-game losing streak or a consequence of the team’s offense scoring a combined 31 points against division foes Seattle and Arizona. Or, more likely, both.
— The quarterback platoon of Jimmy Garoppolo (925 yards passing, 6 total TDs, 2 INTs, 66.1 percent passing) and rookie Trey Lance (354 yards passing, 4 total TDs, 1 INT, 52.1 percent passing) has been decent enough. And multiple running back injuries (Raheem Mostert, Eli Mitchell, JaMychal Hasty), the 49ers rank 11th in the league in rushing at 125.8 ypg. So why the slow start? Well, the defense has been marginal at best, ranking 14th in sacks, 16th in scoring defense, and 31st in takeaways.
— Circa Sports’ +2600 number on San Francisco to win the division is eye-popping compared with odds from the other books. It’s a clear indication that Circa is trying to draw in 49ers’ action at a juicy plus-price to balance its books on NFC West futures odds. Here’s why it might be a good idea to grab that juicy plus-price:
— The Niners might have the division’s easiest schedule over the next two months. Beginning in Week 7, San Francisco’s slate includes matchups with the Colts, Bears, Jaguars, Vikings, Falcons, and Texans. Bottom line: If you like the 49ers’ chances to rally to win the division, now would be the time to buy, because Circa (and others) will drop San Francisco’s long-shot odds by mid-November if the team goes 5-1 against those aforementioned upcoming opponents.
Seattle Seahawks (2-3 SU/ATS)
BetMGM: +1400
Circa Sports: +2500
DraftKings: +1800
FanDuel: +1700
TwinSpires: +1600
— The Seahawks’ sluggish 2-3 start could end up as a high-water mark by season’s end, now that quarterback Russell Wilson (finger surgery) has given way to the eminently replaceable Geno Smith for at least the next month. Prior to last week’s gruesome injury, Wilson had been an ironman for Seattle, logging 149 consecutive regular-season starts and winning games at a 67.5-percent clip.
— Seattle inexplicably ranks 31st in both rushing defense (145.2 ypg), and passing defense (305.6 ypg), which leads to an NFL-worst total defense ranking (450.8 ypg). Somehow, those yards haven’t translated into a ton of points for opponents, as the Seahawks rank 20th in scoring defense (25.2 ppg).
— With Wilson possibly sidelined until December, Smith has to navigate a schedule that includes only one bottom-feeding opponent (home against Jacksonville) in the next seven games. The other foes: Pittsburgh (road), New Orleans (home), Green Bay (road), Arizona (home), Washington (road), and San Francisco (home).
