At the moment, the NFL MVP odds race also doubles as a beauty pageant for quarterbacks overseeing first-place teams. But that’s hardly a recent trend.
Of the last 14 MVP recipients, Vikings tailback Adrian Peterson is the only non-quarterback to win the award. Peterson took the honor in 2012, rushing for 2,097 yards – missing Eric Dickerson’s single-season record by 8 yards – and 12 touchdowns, just one year removed from an ACL tear.
With NFL Week 6 already underway, Props.com checks in on NFL MVP betting odds
MVP odds via BetMGM, Circa Sports, DraftKings, FanDuel, and PointsBet USA, updated as of 1 p.m. EST Oct. 14.
QB Josh Allen, Bills
Record: 4-1 (1st in AFC East)
Current MVP Odds: BetMGM +450; Circa Sports +400; DraftKings +450; FanDuel +450; PointsBet USA +400
2021 Stats: 1,370 yards passing, 12 TDs, 2 INTs, 62.3% completion rate; 188 rushing yards, 2 TDs
Allen’s status as the MVP front-runner coincides with the Bills’ dominating Week 5 road win over the Chiefs. The 38-20 victory was a breakthrough that could have major consequences later in playoff seeding. In a driving rainstorm, Allen rolled for 315 passing yards and three touchdowns, along with 59 rushing yards and another TD.
In his past three games, Allen is averaging 343 total yards (307 passing) and 3.8 touchdowns. The Bills are on a four-game winning streak, with an average victory margin of 28.9 points in that span.
Prior to the start of the season, Allen led the ticket count at BetMGM Nevada. His odds were +1200 back then.
QB Kyler Murray, Cardinals
Record: 5-0 (1st in NFC West)
Current MVP Odds: BetMGM +500; Circa Sports +700; DraftKings +500; FanDuel +500; PointsBet USA +550
2021 Stats: 1,512 yards passing, 10 TDs, 4 INTs, 75.2% completion rate; 110 rushing yards, 3 TDs
Murray is the consensus No. 2 choice on the NFL MVP odds board, trailing only Allen. He’s a no-brainer top-tier candidate, given his robust 75.2 percent completion rate, dual-threat excellence, and the Cardinals being the last undefeated team (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS).
It’s a great start, for sure, but we’ll learn more about Murray’s MVP prospects over the next three weeks when Arizona faces high-profile matchups at Cleveland (Week 6) and at home vs. Green Bay (Week 8).
QB Tom Brady, Buccaneers
Record: 4-1 (1st in NFC South)
Current MVP Odds: BetMGM +700; Circa Sports +500; DraftKings +800; FanDuel +800; PointsBet USA +500
2021 Stats: 1,767 yards passing, 15 TDs, 2 INTs, 66.2% completion rate
How’s this for irony? Brady, currently first in passing yards, and second in passing touchdowns (15), would likely be the NFL MVP odds-on favorite if his numbers against the Patriots (22 of 43, 269 yards, zero TDs) weren’t so pedestrian.
Even counting the rain-soaked homecoming in Foxboro, Brady’s 2021 tallies favorably compare with his five-game start with New England in 2007 — 1,383 yards passing, 16 TDs, two INTs, 74.5% completion rate. In that season, Brady broke Peyton Manning’s record for touchdown passes (50) and led the Patriots to a 16-0 regular season.
The 44-year-old Brady also has some history on his side. A defending Super Bowl champion has claimed NFL MVP honors the following season eight times: Joe Theismann (1983), Joe Montana (1989 and 1990), Emmitt Smith (1993), Brett Favre (1997), Marshall Faulk (2000), Aaron Rodgers (2011), and Brady in 2017.
QB Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Record: 4-1 (1st in NFC East)
Current MVP Odds: BetMGM +650; Circa Sports +550; DraftKings +700; FanDuel +600; PointsBet USA +650
2021 Stats: 1,368 yards passing, 13 TDs, 3 INTs, 73.9% completion rate
After attempting 58 passes in the season-opening loss to the Buccaneers, Prescott has averaged only 27 pass attempts during the Cowboys’ four-game winning streak. Still, he’s a solid fourth choice on the NFL MVP betting board. Why? A combination of Prescott’s 74.7% completion rate since Week 2, notching 11 touchdowns since Week 3 and shepherding Dallas to a national-TV rout of the New York Giants in Week 5.
Unlike Allen or Murray, Prescott benefits from being a household name with America’s most revered NFL franchise. If Dallas owns a commanding NFC East lead and looks the part of a Super Bowl contender in November/December, Prescott will remain in the NFL MVP betting conversation. Of course, blowing out marginal big-market teams gets boring after a while.
For MVP-drama sake, Prescott might need to conjure up a few defining comeback wins, similar to early last season, before a Week 5 ankle injury ended his year.
QB Justin Herbert, Chargers
Record: 4-1 (1st in AFC West)
Current MVP Odds: BetMGM +650; Circa Sports +1,000; DraftKings +700; FanDuel +600; PointsBet USA +750
2021 Stats: 1,576 yards passing, 13 TDs, 3 INTs, 67.1% completion rate
Herbert has caught fire of late, averaging 300 yards passing and four touchdowns during the Chargers’ three-game winning streak. It’s an impressive mini-run of success, but it’s also a seamless carryover from Herbert racking up big numbers as a rookie — 4,336 yards passing, 36 total TDs (five rushing), and a sturdy 66.6% completion rate.
But Herbert needs to keep the pace in what’s been a flighty NFL MVP odds market thus far. For example, just two weeks ago, Rams QB Matthew Stafford was a favorite for MVP honors, but that dissipated shortly after Los Angeles lost at home to Arizona.
Dark Horse Contender
QB Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Jackson, currently +1,000 at DraftKings, has the ideal résumé of a November/December MVP favorite. To date, Jackson leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards (341), ranks fifth in passing yards (1,519), and has already engineered three game-winning drives. Those drives came against the Chiefs, Lions, and Colts, with each comeback occurring in a miraculous fashion.
As long as the 4-1 Ravens control the AFC North, the incomparable Jackson will carry that segment of MVP voters who favor monster numbers … and heart-stopping finishes.