The Buccaneers and Saints are squaring off for the second time this year after a low-scoring affair in Week 2. New faces have been emerging in this rivalry since the first contest. Two of those players are rookies with yardage totals that appear to be a pinch low. Meanwhile, a mainstay in this rivalry has a challenging matchup, making his under an attractive prop. Let’s run through my three favorite Buccaneers vs. Saints player props below.
Buccaneers vs. Saints Player Props: MNF Week 13
For a full list of Buccaneers vs. Saints player props and odds, check out our dedicated page for NFL player props.
Rashid Shaheed Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Rashid Shaheed is a 24-year-old rookie out of college football powerhouse Weber State. So, you can be forgiven for not knowing who he is. He didn’t debut for the Saints until Week 6 when he ripped off a 44-yard touchdown run. Shaheed then had a 53-yard receiving touchdown in Week 7. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the explosive scoring plays earned Shaheed three targets, three receptions, and 38 receiving yards on a modest 15 offensive snaps in Week 8.
Sadly, the out-of-nowhere undrafted free agent had 0, 12, 8, and 53 receiving yards since bursting on the scene. Yet, the underlying numbers were encouraging lately. Shaheed has played his two highest snaps rates (49% and 53%) in the previous two games. In addition, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Shaheed ran the second-most routes (45) for the Saints in Week 11 and Week 12, only four fewer than Chris Olave.
Shaheed’s role in the offense is ideal for hitting his low prop for yardage. Finally, the Saints have pass-first tendencies. According to numberFire, the Saints have thrown 61 passes and had 28 rushes by non-quarterbacks (and nine by Taysom Hill) in neutral game scripts since Week 9. Thus, I like Shaheed’s odds of exceeding 13.5 receiving yards.
Where to bet: Rashid Shaheed Over 13.5 Receiving Yards | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Cameron Brate Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Cameron Brate is in a tight end committee with rookie Cade Otton. Since the veteran tight end returned in Week 10, he’s run 41 routes versus 30 for Otton. So, yes, Brate is atop the tight end committee. Still, it’s a suboptimal scenario for Brate to pile up yardage.
Brate also hasn’t been particularly active in the passing attack since returning in Week 10. In his past two games, he has had seven targets, three receptions, 23 receiving yards, and 32 Air Yards. Further, the matchup is a nightmare for Brate. According to Football Outsiders, tight ends have averaged the fewest receiving yards per game (31.0) against the Saints this season. Finally, Brate has had fewer than 20.5 receiving yards in five of seven games this year, including a nine-yard dud against the Saints in Week 2. Therefore, I love his under for 20.5 receiving yards.
Where to bet: Cameron Brate Under 20.5 Yards | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Rachaad White Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-119)
Leonard Fournette was out in Tampa Bay’s first game out of their bye in Week 10. He’s listed as questionable, but Fournette’s practice participation suggests he’ll return this week. Fournette can muddy the backfield split. Nevertheless, he’s been inefficient this year, and returning from an injury isn’t a recipe for magically becoming more efficient.
Fournette’s struggles have opened the door for rookie Rachaad White. The rookie running back had over 100 scrimmage yards in back-to-back games, providing more juice than Lombardi Lenny brought to the table. The Bucs have mentioned a hot-hand approach for the backfield. So, the tide appears to be shifting.
Additionally, in the last five games the two running backs played together, Fournette earned a target on 14.5% of his routes, and White was targeted on 17.4% of his routes. White also had a whopping nine receptions for 45 yards on nine targets in Week 12.
Tom Brady loves peppering running backs with targets in a pass-first offense. The Bucs have attempted 118 passes and only 62 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts since Week 9. Brady will likely need to lean on his pass-catchers in the short and intermediate area since left tackle Tristan Wirfs is out for tonight’s game. As a result, I’m betting on White besting 15.5 receiving yards tonight.
Where to bet: Rachaad White Over 15.5 Yards | -119 at Caesars Sportsbook
More Buccaneers vs. Saints Player Props
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First Touchdown Scorer Props – Who Will Score First TD Tonight? (Daily Picks)