A rainout kept Wednesday’s Best Bets from a (potentially) profitable night, as the remaining two picks went 1-for-2.
If any of Thursday’s Best Bets (which all come from Game 1 of the NBA Finals) succumb to weather, then we’ll have bigger problems to worry about. (Hey, don’t rule it out weather issues in basketball arenas — just ask Dallas Mavericks fans.)
Stay dry out there, and check out our trio of Best Bets for Thursday!
All odds updated as of 3 p.m. ET on June 2.
Best Bets Track Record
Wednesday: 1-1
Year-To-Date: 103-95-2
Bostonian vs. The Book: 31-31-2
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 29-36
NBA Props: 33-21
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 3-1
MLB Sides: 1-0
NBA Total: Boston Celtics vs Golden State Warriors
The bet: Celtics-Warriors Under 213.5
The odds: -110
Where to bet: BetMGM
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast
Matt Perrault of The Bostonian vs. The Book podcast (which can be found on the Props podcast page) misfired with Wednesday’s Best Bet on Lightning-Rangers Under the total in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Undaunted, Perrault is firing on another Under for Thursday, taking Under 213.5 for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Here’s his rationale:
- Golden State is 28-20-2 to the Under at home this season, good for 58 percent hit rate.
- The Under has cashed in three of the Celtics’ last four games overall.
- Boston has capable defenders (Marcus Smart, Robert Williams) to slow down Stephen Curry and the Warriors’ offensive freight train.
Most importantly, while both offenses are very prolific, this matchup also pits two quality defenses against each other. Boston ranked first in defensive efficiency this season; Golden State was third.
Looking to tail this Best Bet? You can find Celtics-Warriors Under 213.5 at BetMGM.
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NBA Prop: G Derrick White (Boston Celtics)
The prop: 8.5 points
The odds: +100
Where to bet: Draftkings Sportsbook
From: Matt LaMarca via NBA Props Thursday
Robert Williams’ health is the biggest question mark for the Celtics. He’s been on the court recently, but the Boston big man is clearly less than full strength. Which is why Williams has been capped at 26 minutes in most contests, and he played just 14 minutes in Game 7 against the Heat.
Derrick White has picked up the slack with Williams banged up. The midseason acquisition from the Spurs got off to a rocky start in Boston, but he has been instrumental of late. He’s scored at least 13 points in three of the past four games, and he finished with eight points in the fourth. He figures to see plenty of court time against the Warriors, who don’t play a particularly large lineup.
I’ll gladly take White Over 8.5 points at even money.
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BetPrep Prop of the Day: F Grant Williams (Boston Celtics)
The bet: Over 3.5 rebounds
The odds: -120
Where to bet: Caesars Sportsbook
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com
Like the previous two Best Bets, BetPrep is focusing its top play on the hardwood Thursday. The selection: Boston forward Grant Williams Over 3.5 rebounds in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
Here’s the rationale from BetPrep:
- Williams has recorded four-plus rebounds in 13 of 18 playoff games.
- Williams has recorded four-plus rebounds in six of his last seven road games.
- The Boston forward is averaging 4.3 rebounds per game in the postseason.
As you can see, there’s some merit to the Over, particularly when focusing on the final stat: This 3.5 prop number is nearly one full rebound below Williams’ per-game postseason average. Sure, there’s some juice to the Over at Caesars Sportsbook (-120), but that shouldn’t scare you away from what looks like an easy NBA prop winner.
