Wednesday’s Best Bets went 1-2 on the night, which brings us to a 79-79-1 record overall. You could say the Best Bets series is in the middle of a choppy sea at the moment.
Will the tide pull us below the gambling Mendoza line, or can we swim to safer waters?
Let’s find out in our Best Bets for Thursday, featuring an NHL pick and a pair of NBA props.
Best Bets Track Record
Wednesday: 1-2
Year-To-Date: 79-79-1
Bostonian vs. The Book: 24-25-1
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 19-33
NBA Props: 28-15
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 1-0
MLB Sides: 1-0
NHL Side: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs
The bet: Lightning moneyline (vs. Toronto)
The odds: -136
Where to bet: PointsBet USA
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast
Matt Perrault, host of The Bostonian vs. The Book podcast, turns to the ice for his play in Thursday’s Best Bets. The official pick is on the Tampa Bay Lightning moneyline against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Perrault’s mantra for this Best Bets recommendation: Don’t overthink it!
After losing in Game 5, Tampa Bay has its back against the wall, trailing 3-2 in the best-of-7 series. Perrault believes the Lightning will come out with extra energy in order to keep their season alive. The last time Tampa Bay trailed in the series (2-1), it thumped Toronto 7-3 on home ice. Perrault is banking on a similar outcome tonight.
Another key stat playing to Tampa Bay’s favor: Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is 16-0 after a loss in the playoffs.
Think the Lightning can force Game 7? You can bet Tampa Bay moneyline -136 at PointsBet USA.
Related: Looking for more NHL betting information? Check out our NHL playoff odds and action report for Thursday.
NBA Prop: PG Chris Paul (Phoenix Suns)
The prop: Over 8.5 assists (at Dallas)
The odds: -140
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: Matt LaMarca via Thursday NBA Props
Paul is one of the best point guards in NBA history, and his team is on the verge of making it to the Western Conference finals once again. Paul has more than his fair share of haters, due to his lack of playoff success, but this might be his best chance of getting a ring.
Paul’s numbers as a distributor have dwindled recently, with eight assists or fewer in five of his past six games. However, he bounced back with 10 dimes in his last outing, and he averaged 10.8 assists per game during the regular season. Paul is playing roughly two additional minutes per game during the playoffs, as well, so his assist prop at just 8.5 represents some value. Paul has averaged 15.6 potential assists per game during the playoffs, and he had 17.0 in his last game. I love the Point God in Game 6.
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BetPrep Prop of the Day: F/C Bam Adebayo (Miami Heat)
The bet: Over 7.5 rebounds (at Philadelphia)
The odds: -138
Where to bet: FanDuel Sportsbook
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com
The BetPrep Prop of the Day comes from Game 6 in the Heat vs 76ers series, taking Miami center Bam Adebayo Over 7.5 rebounds. The rationale for Betprep’s Best Bets selection:
- Adebayo has grabbed eight-plus rebounds in 10 of his last 13 road games.
- In seven games against Philadelphia, Adebayo is averaging eight rebounds per game.
- On the season, Adebayo carries a robust 9.71 rpg mark.
The Miami big man failed to clear 7.5 rebounds in Game 6, but we need to consider that his minutes were shortened (27) due to a blowout. Adebayo finished with six boards in that contest, and he should be primed to snag eight or more rebounds while expecting more playing time in a competitive atmosphere on Thursday.
You can find Adebayo Over 7.5 rebounds (-138) at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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