Wednesday Best Bets: One NBA Total, Two NBA Props

Tuesday’s Best Bets went 1-2, which puts us at a cringy 1-5 to start the week.

What did we do to deserve this bad luck? Come to think of it, we did walk under a ladder the other day. What’s the best way to undo that? Should we walk backward under the same ladder? Does that cancel out the bad luck or just make it worse?

There’s only one way to find out, so excuse us while we make a quick trip to Home Depot.

Hopefully this is enough to reverse our fortunes for Wednesday’s Best Bets.

Best Bets Track Record

Tuesday: 1-2
Year-To-Date: 78-77-1

Bostonian vs. The Book: 24-24-1
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 19-32
NBA Props: 27-15
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 1-0
MLB Sides: 1-0

NBA Total: Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks

The bet: Celtics-Bucks Under 214.5
The odds: -105
Where to bet: BetMGM
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast

Matt Perrault of The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast cashed his portion of the Best Bets series on Tuesday, as the Wild and Blues exceeded 6.5 total goals. For Wednesday, Perrault is turning back to the NBA playoffs hardwood for an interesting total in the Eastern Conference.

The official play: Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks Under 214.5 in Game 5 of the series.

If you recall, Game 4 finished with the Celtics winning 116-108 in Milwaukee. That snapped Milwaukee’s 8-0 Under run through the postseason. Perrault notes that outcome as an exception to the rule, because Boston scored 43 fourth-quarter points to push the total Over. Al Horford had an unbelievable 30-point performance, as well. Neither of those situations will likely repeat in Game 5.

Perrault expects Game 5 to play out similarly to Games 1-3 in this series, all of which fell short of the total.

You can wager on Boston-Milwaukee Under 214.5 at BetMGM.

NBA Prop: F/C Jaren Jackson Jr. (Memphis Grizzlies)

The prop: Over 17.5 points (vs. Golden State)
The odds: -105
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: Spencer Limbach via Wednesday NBA Props

With Ja Morant out for the Grizzlies, other starters such as Jackson will need to step up.

Jackson answered the call in Game 4, albeit in a losing effort, posting 21 points in 34 minutes. That’s despite shooting 7-for-21 from the field (including 0-for-7 from 3-point range). If he can just produce a somewhat normal shooting night, Jackson should fly past 17.5 points in a must-win game for Memphis.

Another reason to like this bet: Jackson has consistently stepped up in Morant’s absence this season. In 21 games without his All-Star point guard, Jackson averaged 18.5 points and a 28.1 percent usage rate. Compare that to 15.5 points per game and a 24.7 percent usage rate in 57 games with Morant on the floor.

Foul trouble is always a concern with Jackson — just as it is when betting any Over on a player prop. But if he keeps his hands to himself, he’s a great pick to score 18-plus points. Which he pretty much has to do if the Grizzlies are going to extend this series with their electric point guard sidelined.

BetPrep Prop of the Day: F/C Al Horford (Boston Celtics)

The bet: Under 3.5 assists (vs. Milwaukee)
The odds: -128
Where to bet: FanDuel Sportsbook
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com

The BetPrep Prop of the Day resides in the NBA, taking Al Horford Under 3.5 assists against Milwaukee. The rationale for BetPrep’s Best Bets selection:

• Horford has recorded four-plus assists in just one of eight games this postseason.
• Horford has recorded four-plus assists in only one of his last five home games.

Boston’s veteran big man had a terrific game on Monday, pouring in 30 points in 42 minutes of action. However, he failed to clear 3.5 assists despite the expanded playing time, finishing with three dimes. On top of that, Robert Williams is questionable for Game 5. If Williams returns to the lineup, then that could mean less frontcourt responsibility for Horford.

You can find Horford Under 3.5 assists (-128) at FanDuel Sportsbook.