A major uptick in COVID cases has wreaked havoc on schedules throughout the sporting world — and certainly the NBA has not been immune. However, all eight games on the league’s Tuesday docket were still good to go as of midday. And so we offer up the following five NBA props for your wagering consideration.
We also offer up this public service announcement: Keep an eye out for any late-day postponements/cancelations, and before making any wagers at your sportsbook of choice, make sure you understand the house rules regarding postponed games and refunds.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 28.
Orlando Magic: SF Franz Wagner
The Prop: 17.5 points (vs. Milwaukee)
The Odds: Over -125/Under +100
In two months of NBA action, Wagner has already posted three games of 27-plus points. And in his last two home contests, the rookie from Michigan put up 20 points against New Orleans and 27 against Miami.
So hammering the Over is a no-brainer here, right? Not so fast. In his first 11 home games prior to facing Miami, Wagner never once cleared this prop number. In those contests, he put up point totals of 10, 15, 15, 16, 8, 10, 10, 7, 9, 15, and 16 points.
Also, while Wagner has scored 20-plus points seven times in 34 games, he shot 47.3 percent from the field in those contests. That stands in contrast to Wagner’s season-long 44.1 percent shooting rate (including 35.5 percent from three-point range).
The Bucks have allowed 113-plus points in four of their last seven games overall and four of their last six on the road. But in back-to-back losses at Milwaukee in mid-November, Wagner produced a grand total of three points (including a goose egg in a 123-92 defeat on Nov. 22).
Editor’s Note: New to NBA props? Check out our complete NBA Props Betting Guide.
Miami Heat: SG Duncan Robinson
The Prop: 2.5 made three-pointers (vs. Washington)
The Odds: Over +110/Under -145
Why is there so much juice to the Under on this prop? Several good reasons, actually:
— Robinson missed 11 of 13 three-point attempts in his last two games.
— The Wizards rank first overall in the fewest three-pointers allowed (opponents are making just 10.4 per game).
— Robinson has connected on only 3 of 13 three-point shots in two games versus Washington this season.
— Finally, Robinson is shooting just 26 percent (12-for-46) from long range when playing the second of consecutive home games this season.
On the other hand, Robinson has had his hot moments from downtown this season, connecting on three or more triples 15 times in 34 contests. Alas, he was on the road for 12 of those 15 games.
In fact, Robinson has topped this number only three times in 15 contests in South Beach. In those three particular outings, Robinson went 17-for-36 from distance. The other 12 games in Miami? He’s made just 18 of 84 three-point shots (21.4%).
Philadelphia 76ers: C Joel Embiid
The Prop: 12.5 rebounds (at Toronto)
The Odds: Over -130/Under +100
The 76ers’ star has been a one-man wrecking crew over the last month, posting per-game averages of 28.3 points 4.2 assists, 1.5 blocks, and 1.2 steals since Nov. 27.
Embiid’s rebounding numbers have been similarly stellar during this 13-game cycle. The boards breakdown: 14, 13, 18, 12, 15, 8, 9, 9, 14, 9, 10, 10 and 13. As you can see, though, Embiid beat this 12.5 rebounding prop in less than half of those games — and only did so twice in his last eight contests.
Only the flip side, the three-time All-Pro has collected 12 or more boards in his last four meetings with Toronto (17, 12, 16, and 13). Also, the Raptors are allowing 11.1 offensive rebounds per game this year, which is the sixth-most in the NBA.
Los Angeles Lakers: SF LeBron James
The Prop: 44.5 points/rebounds/assists (at Houston)
The Odds: Over -110/Under -120
There are no certainties in sports betting. But LeBron James clearing this 44.5 total in Houston on Tuesday comes pretty dang close. Here’s why:
— James is averaging 35.0 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists in four games since sidekick Anthony Davis has been out injured. During this stretch, Jones averaged 50 points, rebounds, and assists, with per-game totals of 51, 43, 51, and 55.
— James has averaged 41.9 points/rebounds/assists in his last six road games. However, Davis was in the Lakers’ starting lineup in four of those contests. When Davis is sidelined, The King usually takes on a bigger role in all aspects of the game.
— The Rockets have the league’s third-worst scoring defense, allowing 114.3 points per game. In the past four games alone, Houston has surrendered 133, 126, 118, and 123 points. What’s more, the Rockets have yielded at least 110 points in 11 of 14 December games.
Then again, James did fall just short of this prop during his last matchup against the Rockets (30 points, 10 rebounds, four assists on Nov. 2 at home). In fact, he’s amassed 45 or more points/rebounds/assists just twice in his last nine non-playoff games versus Houston. (The breakdown: 44, 30, 32, 39, 48, 42, 47, 38 and 34.)
Denver Nuggets: C Nikola Jokic
The Prop: 7.5 assists (at Golden State)
The Odds: Over -125/Under -105
Jokic currently ranks 12th in assists at 7.2 per contest, and he’s reached double-digit dimes on six occasions this season. Both marks are by far tops in the NBA among centers.
Also, the league’s reigning MVP has dished out eight-plus assists in seven of his last 10 games dating to Dec. 6 (averaging 8.7 during this span). And in his last five matchups with the Warriors, Jokic averaged 7.8 dimes, clearing Tuesday’s prop number three times.
Looking for a reason to play the Under here? Well, Jokic’s assist production has slowed a bit recently — since a six-game stretch when he tallied 15, 11, 10, 8, 9, and 11 assists, he’s cleared 7.5 dimes just once in his last four (he had eight in Sunday’s game at the Clippers).
