3M Open Picks: Best Bets, Props, Sleepers

Tony Finau plays his shot from the 16th tee
Image Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports

Dubbs Anderson, former PGA Tour caddy and host of the Props Golf podcast, is back following a solid betting performance at the Open Championship. Reaching for those “plus-money peaches,” Anderson offers his top 3M Open picks, best bets, props, and sleepers this time around. The event starts the morning of Thursday, July 21 — so read up and get those picks in.

In addition to this betting preview, Anderson will release an episode late Friday night in which he will offer his favorite wagering opportunities heading into the weekend, so be sure to subscribe to Props Golf on Youtube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts.

With that, here are Dubbs’ top 3M Open picks and best bets across the golf betting markets.

Odds updated as of 10 a.m. ET on July 19.

3M Open Picks

The 3M Open will be played at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. Cameron Champ won this event in 2021 and has 65-1 longshot odds to win this event again. Other recent winners of this tournament include Michael Thompson (2020), and Matthew Wolff in the tournament’s inaugural year in 2019.

As Dubbs noted on the podcast, TPC Twin Cities is a longer golf course that brings a lot of water into play. The players will need distance while also keeping the ball in bounds. With that in mind, strokes gained around the green, strokes gained on approach, and strokes gained off the tee are the most important metrics to monitor heading into this event.

The following are abbreviated, edited excerpts of Anderson’s analysis from his latest episode of Props Golf, which he hosts twice weekly. For full analysis, you can view the full episode at the bottom of this article.

Tony Finau Outright Winner (+1400)

Tony Finau hits his tee shot at the 17th hole during the final round of the RBC Canadian Open
Image Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Best odds available: +1400 at BetMGM Sportsbook

Dubbs’ Take: It’s rare Dubbs goes with a true betting favorite for his top pick. But this week, the big swinging Tony Finau looks to be in great form to take home the win. It helps that he also has two wins under his belt on the PGA Tour.

Let’s consider some of Finau’s other PGA rankings up to this point:

  • 21st in strokes gained off the tee
  • 17th in strokes gained on approach
  • 66th in strokes gained around the green

The heavy-hitting favorite for this weekend has never missed a cut at this tournament. Finau is also coming off a strong T-28 finish at the Open Championship last weekend. Look for him to ride that momentum into this weekend.

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Davis Riley Outright Winner (+2500)

Davis Riley lines up a putt on the fifth green during the first round of the U.S. Open
Image Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Best odds available: +2500 at BetMGM Sportsbook

Dubbs’ Take: Riley is a youngster who has been knocking on the door for a while now. Although his weakness lies in his accuracy around the greens, TPC Twin Cities will be forgiving in that regard. Larger golf courses mean larger greens, and that’s great for Riley.

He is 47th in strokes gained off the tee and 64th in strokes gained on approach. Most importantly, he has six top ten finishes this season. Count on Riley to take the next step and potentially check off a tournament win this weekend.

Sahith Theegala Top 20 Finish (+163)

Sahith Theegala tees off on the 10th hole during Round 3 at the WM Phoenix Open.
Image Credit: Patrick Breen-The Republic

Best odds available: +163 at BetRivers Sportsbook

Dubbs’ Take: Theegala is coming off a decent T-34 finish at the Open Championship. That kind of major (no pun intended) momentum could easily carry over to a solid performance this week, so Dubbs is rolling with it.

Keep in mind, Theegala got the last-minute call up to last week’s major, so he clearly knows how to perform.

With all that to consider, the +163 odds at BetRivers Sportsbook look especially enticing.

More 3M Open Picks

Anderson offers additional 3M Open picks and other wagering-related strategies in the latest episode of Props Golf, including:

  • A 100-1 longshot winner
  • Three sleepers for outright winner bets
  • Head-to-head matchup picks
  • 3M Open props (playoff, hole-in-one, etc)
  • Best Bets for a Top 20/40 Finish
  • Fade plays

Watch/listen to the full episode on YouTube or simply press play on the video below. You can also listen to Props Golf on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to your podcasts. Subscribe so you don’t miss when Dubbs drops his live 3M Open picks early on Saturday.

Listen & Subscribe: Youtube | Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Looking for more information on PGA Tour betting? Take a look at our complete Golf Betting Guide to get up to speed. You can also check out our PGA Tour Prop Betting Guide to dive deeper into these golf wagering styles.