When it comes to betting props, it’s all about finding mistakes in the oddsmakers’ numbers and taking advantage of the value that arises from those mistakes. That’s how you end up recommending two of the NBA’s top 10 scorers to fall short of their point totals — which is precisely what we are doing with Wednesday NBA props!
In fact, it’s all about scoring and setting up scoring tonight, as we offer up three points-specific selections and two assists-related plays among our five Wednesday NBA props.
Let’s dive into it.
Odds via FanDuel as of 2 p.m. ET on March 30.
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Denver Nuggets: C Nikola Jokic
The prop: 27.5 points (at Indiana)
The odds: Over -104/Under -116
Jokic is one of the NBA’s most consistent and reliable stars, as evidenced by the fact he’s played in 54 of Denver’s last 56 games. But the reigning league MVP might be in for a short, stress-free night Wednesday — even with the Nuggets still fighting to avoid the play-in tournament. (Denver is two games ahead of Minnesota for the No. 6 seed.)
The reason: Indiana appears to be counting the hours until its miserable season ends. The Pacers have lost four straight and nine of 12, including three by more than 30 points. And while the Nuggets might struggle against the league’s top teams, they usually take care of business against bottom-feeders like Indiana, which is 25-51 this season.
Jokic has played more than 30 minutes in six straight games and 13 of his last 14. So it’s difficult to believe he’ll be on the floor in the fourth quarter if the Nuggets — who are laying double digits — have this game in the bag early. In fact, with Denver’s next game being Friday at home against Minnesota, it would be foolish for The Joker to be wasting energy in a blowout.
If Jokic does depart early, there’s a very good chance he’ll stay Under 27.5 points (which, by the way, he’s done in five of his last 10 games).
Boston Celtics: SG Marcus Smart
The prop: 6.5 assists (vs. Miami)
The odds: Over +106/Under -130
Smart poured in 28 points in Monday’s overtime loss to Toronto, but that was with Boston stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown out of the lineup with knee injuries. Center Al Horford (personal reasons) also didn’t play. All three are expected back for Wednesday’s showdown against Miami, and that should return Smart to his normal secondary role in the offense.
While shouldering more of the scoring load against Toronto, Smart had only four assists. However, the 28-year-old from Oklahoma State had at least seven assists in each of his five previous games. During that stretch, he averaged 9.4 dimes while scoring a total of 48 points, or 9.6 per outing. (See the correlation?)
Look for Smart to play facilitator all night in a very important game for Boston. Playing the Over at a plus-price.
Minnesota Timberwolves: PG D’Angelo Russell
The prop: 15.5 points (at Toronto)
The odds: Over -118/Under -102
Russell has slumped at a bad time for the Timberwolves, who are trying to fight their way out of the No. 7 seed and a play-in game in the Western Conference. The nine-year veteran scored only four points in Sunday’s blowout loss to Boston, this after tallying 15 and six points in the two previous games. And going back to March 5, Russell has topped 15 points just three times in his last 10 contests.
Despite those struggles, Minnesota has been clicking as a team, going 11-4 in its last 15 contests. During this 15-game stretch, the Timberwolves are tied with Memphis for the NBA’s best net rating.
Timberwolves coach Chris Finch has said it’s a priority to get his point guard going again. With this prop being set at 15.5 — in the wake of Russell’s recent scoring woes — tells us the oddsmakers believe this is the spot when Minnesota’s point guard will get right.
Lay a little juice with this Wednesday NBA props play, and take Russell Over 15.5 points.
San Antonio Spurs: SF Keldon Johnson
The prop: 2.5 assists (vs. Memphis)
The odds: Over +138/Under -170
Somehow, someway, the Spurs (31-44) are sitting in the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. (OK, the “somehow” is the Los Angeles Lakers are absolutely abysmal.)
Simply put, this prop is mispriced based on recent performance, as Johnson has had four or more assists in five of his past seven games. Well, we only need him to get three to cash this prop — and at a juicy plus-price.
Granted, the 22-year-old Kentucky product has only dished three-plus dimes in 18 of 69 games. But again, this one is all about recent form — and recently, Johnson has been offering his teammates a helping hand.
Also working in our favor here: Memphis allows the sixth-most assists in the NBA at 25.7 per game. Play this Wednesday NBA props selection Over.
Phoenix Suns: G Devin Booker
The prop: 28.5 points (at Golden State)
The odds: Over -104/Under -118
Admittedly, it’s scary to bet Booker to stay Under any points prop — especially since he’s scored 31 or more in three of his past four games. But this looks to be a good spot.
The Suns have nothing to play for, with the NBA’s best record and home-court advantage for the playoffs wrapped up. (Though, in fairness, Phoenix has shown no signs of slowing down during an eight-game winning streak.)
The Warriors have lost three in a row and six of seven, all since losing star guard Steph Curry to a foot injury (Curry remains sidelined). If Golden State wants to gain any kind of form before the playoffs, it probably starts with a good defensive effort here against the best team in the league.
And for all his success, Booker managed only 10 and 13 points in his two games against the Warriors this season (though both came before the calendar flipped to 2022).
Let’s bet that Booker doesn’t fill up the stat sheet Wednesday against a desperate Warriors squad.
