The NBA playoffs don’t officially begin until the play-in tournament commences April 12. Unofficially? The playoffs start in a matter of hours, as a huge game with significant Eastern Conference seeding implications highlights the Wednesday NBA odds menu.
The Miami Heat have spent the entire second half of the season atop the Eastern Conference standings but are in danger of relinquishing their perch as they head to Boston. The red-hot Celtics are among three teams nipping at Miami’s heels — all within 1.5 games of first place with 11 days remaining in the regular season.
While Heat-Celtics is the most significant matchup on the Wednesday NBA odds board, it’s not the only one with intrigue. Out on the left coast, the slumping and still-Steph-Curry-less Golden State Warriors host the still-scorching Phoenix Suns, who have already locked up home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.
Props.com breaks down both contests, which are part of an 11-game slate, in our Wednesday NBA betting preview.
Odds via PointsBet USA and updated as of 5:30 p.m. ET on March 30.
Miami Heat Vs Boston Celtics
Tipoff/TV: 7:40 p.m. ET/ESPN
Miami: 48-28/41-34-1 ATS
Boston: 47-29/41-34-1 ATS
Spread/Total: Celtics -5/213.5 (Under -115)
Last meeting: Boston burned the Heat 122-92 as a 6.5-point home favorite on Jan. 31. The Celtics also rolled 95-78 as a 6.5-point underdog in South Beach in the first meeting of the season Nov. 4
Did you know: Prior to the Jan. 31 clash, the road team had won and covered four straight in this rivalry. Going back to April 2019, the SU winner has covered the spread in 15 consecutive Heat-Celtics clashes (playoffs included)
About Miami: The Heat halted an ill-timed four-game SU losing skid with Monday’s 123-100 rout of Sacramento, easily cashing as a 13.5-point home favorite. The spread-cover snapped a season-worst 0-7 ATS nosedive. In the victory, Miami put up its highest point total since a 123-106 home win over Houston on March 7 (10 games) and yielded its fewest points since beating Detroit 105-98 at home on March 15 (six games). Monday’s game also capped a stretch in which the Heat played 11 of 12 games in South Beach. Going back to Feb. 3, Miami is 7-2 SU/7-1-1 ATS on the road. The Heat are clinging to first place in the Eastern Conference, just ahead of Milwaukee (half-game back), Boston (one game) and Philadelphia (1.5 games).
Editor’s Note: Looking to become a sharper NBA bettor? Check out our NBA betting guide for a few wagering tips.
About Boston: Despite missing four if its best players (see injuries below), the Celtics still took the Raptors to overtime Monday, but couldn’t close the deal, falling 115-112 in Toronto. The loss snapped a six-game winning streak, but Boston did cash as an 8.5-point underdog, improving to 6-1 ATS in its last seven games (3-0 ATS last three). The Celtics are still 24-5 SU/19-10 ATS going back to Jan. 23, including 11-2 SU/7-5 ATS at home. Sitting in 11th place in the Eastern Conference as recently as Jan. 16, Boston would pull into a first-place tie with Miami with a victory Wednesday.
Injuries: Miami forward Duncan Robinson (illness) is questionable, while fellow forward Caleb Martin (right knee, calf) will miss his second straight game. Combined, Robinson and Martin average 20.3 points and 6.6 rebounds per contest. … Celtics shooting guard Jaylen Brown (right knee) and forward Jayson Tatum (right knee), both of whom sat out Monday’s game at Toronto, are expected to return to the court Wednesday. Same goes for center Al Horford (personal), who missed the past two games. However, center Robert Williams (10 points, 9.6 rebounds per game) is out indefinitely after tearing meniscus in his left knee Sunday against Minnesota.
Notable Trends
- Miami is 15-6 ATS as an underdog this season
- Boston is 5-2 ATS in its last seven at home (all as a favorite)
- Over for Miami is on runs of 5-1 overall and 14-6 as an underdog
- Over for Boston is on runs of 6-0 overall, 5-1 at home, and 12-3-1 as a favorite
- Underdog is 4-2 ATS in the last six Heat-Celtics battles
- Over is 7-2 in the last nine series clashes overall
- Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Boston
Miami Heat Vs Boston Celtics Odds and Action
UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET: On Tuesday night, Boston opened as a 5-point favorite in PointsBet USA’s Wednesday NBA odds market, and within a couple of hours went to -5.5, then backed up to -4.5. The Celtics fell to -4 this morning, then rebounded to -5.5 by lunchtime and went to -5 late this afternoon. Boston is drawing 62% of spread tickets and 64% of spread dollars. The total opened at 213.5, peaked at 215 early today, receded to 213 a couple of times and is now at the 213.5 opener. Despite the drawback, the Over is seeing 85% of tickets/86% of money.
Phoenix Suns Vs Golden State Warriors
Tipoff/TV: 10:10 p.m. ET/ESPN
Suns: 61-14 SU/42-33 ATS
Warriors: 48-28 SU/36-36-4 ATS
Spread/Total: Suns -4.5/221.5 (Under -115)
Last meeting: Golden State traveled to the desert on Christmas Day and upset the Suns 116-107 as a six-point underdog, improving to 2-1 SU/ATS against Phoenix this season
Did you know: After their Christmas Day win in Arizona, the Warriors had a half-game lead over the Suns in the Pacific Division. Since then, Golden State is 21-22 (15-26-2 ATS), while Phoenix is 35-8 (25-18 ATS)
About Phoenix: Not only are the Suns the NBA’s best team, they’re the league’s hottest team, arriving in the Bay Area on an eight-game winning streak. If that wasn’t scary enough for Golden State, Phoenix also comes into this one well-rested, having been idle since Sunday’s 114-104 victory over the 76ers as a 4-point home chalk. During their winning streak, the Suns have cashed in seven of eight games (including three in a row). They also have won six consecutive road games (5-1 ATS). Just how good is Phoenix? Memphis (53-23) is 30 games over .500, yet still 8.5 games behind the Suns, who have already wrapped up the NBA’s best record with seven games to play.
About Golden State: The Warriors’ struggles without Curry continued Monday in Memphis, where they got drilled 123-95 as a 9-point road underdog. Since March 16, when Curry went down with a foot sprain early in a home game against Boston, Golden State is 1-6 SU/ATS. During an ongoing three-game SU/ATS slide, the club has surrendered 123, 123 and 121 points. The Warriors are now five games behind second-place Memphis in the Western Conference pecking order. More importantly, they are just one game ahead of fourth-place Dallas and two games in front of Utah and Denver, which are tied for fifth. With or without Curry, Golden State has been middling on its home court since late January, going 6-5 SU/3-8.
Injuries: Veteran guard Andre Iguodala (back) returned to Golden State’s lineup Monday for the first time since Feb. 8. Other than Curry — who was expected to be out until mid-April but might return as soon as Saturday against Utah — the Warriors have no significant injury issues. … Phoenix center JaVale McGee (9.3 points, 6.6 rebounds per game) will miss his second straight game with a non-COVID-related illness. The Suns are otherwise healthy.
Notable Trends
- Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a favorite
- Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in its last six when playing on two days’ rest
- Golden State is 6-0 ATS in its last six as a home underdog
- Over for Phoenix is on runs of 7-2 overall, 5-0 on the road, and 5-2 as a favorite
- Over is 9-4-1 in Golden State’s last 13 overall
- Under is 5-1 in Golden State’s last six at home
- Under is 10-2 in the last 12 Suns-Warriors meetings (5-1 in Golden State)
Phoenix Suns Vs Golden State Warriors Odds and Action
UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET: PointsBet’s Wednesday NBA odds market pegged Phoenix a 6.5-point favorite at the outset, tumbled to -4.5 this morning, then briefly climbed to -5.5 before returning to 4.5. A few hours ahead of game time, the Suns remain -4.5, although early ticket count is 5/1 and early money 9/1 on Phoenix. The total opened at 224.5, bottomed out at 220.5 early this afternoon and is now 221.5 (Under -115). Ticket count is just shy of 2/1 on the Over, but money is 2.5/1 on the Under.
