Wednesday Best Bets: One NBA Total, Two NBA Props

After Monday’s Best Bets went a perfect 3-for-3, Tuesday’s edition couldn’t live up to the hype, as only one of our three selections paid off.

As Eminem would say, it’s a snap back to reality (enjoy that song being stuck in your head the rest of the day).

While it’s time to get back to the lab on our other picks, you could say our NBA Props (now 23-10) are better than mom’s spaghetti.

That’s three Eminem references for those counting. Don’t think we can make it four? Go ahead and “lose yourself” in our trio of Best Bets for Tuesday.

Best Bets Track Record

Tuesday: 1-2
Year-To-Date: 66-60-1

Bostonian vs. The Book: 17-21-1
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 18-23
NBA Props: 23-10
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 1-0
MLB Sides: 1-0

NBA Total: Milwaukee Bucks vs Chicago Bulls

The bet: Bucks-Bulls Under 217.5
The odds: -110
Where to bet: Caesars Sportsbook
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast

Matt Perrault of The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast dropped to 1-1 on the week after Memphis got the last-second win but failed to cover against Minnesota on Tuesday.

For Wednesday, Perrault is returning to NBA playoffs, and he’s looking toward an old standby wagering opportunity: Bucks vs Bulls Under 217.5.

Perrault noted that the Under has cashed in all four games in this series. Here’s the rundown:

• Game 1: Under 230 by 51 points
• Game 2: Under 225 by 1 point
• Game 3: Under 225.5 by 30.5 points
• Game 4: Under 219.5 by 5.5 points

Perrault expects the Bucks to take control of this game from the opening tip, especially with Bulls’ guard Zach LaVine sidelined. In fact, he mentioned Milwaukee -12 as another bet worth considering. But he’s more confident in Under 217.5, envisioning this contest playing out like the Bucks’ 119-95 victory in Game 4.

• Related: Which way is the money flowing? Jim Barnes has the full action report on this Bucks-Bulls Game 5 matchup. 

You can grab Under 217.5 right now at Caesars Sportsbook.

NBA Prop: F Patrick Williams (Chicago Bulls)

The bet: Over 11.5 points (at Milwaukee)
The odds: -105
Where to bet: BetMGM Sportsbook
From: Spencer Limbach via NBA Props Wednesday

Chicago guard Zach LaVine has entered the dreaded health and safety protocols, and thus will not play in Game 5. That’s sent sportsbooks scrambling to adjust their prop numbers accordingly. BetMGM rolled out Patrick Williams’ points prop at 11.5, which is higher than it would be if LaVine was playing — but not high enough.

Here’s why:

• Williams played two games without LaVine this season. He scored 18 and 35 points, respectively, in those contests.
• The Bulls’ forward has posted 12-plus points in six of his last nine games overall.
• Williams has played between 30-33 minutes in his last three games, and that could increase slightly with LaVine out.

Throw in some reduced juice, and this prop looks like a bargain. Go ahead and grab this number at BetMGM before it changes.

NBA Prop: G/F Andrew Wiggins (Golden State Warriors)

The bet: Over 14.5 points (vs. Denver)
The odds: -130
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com

The BetPrep Prop of the Day is now 1-1 on the week after Anthony Edwards failed to go Over 3.5 made 3-pointers on Tuesday.

For Tuesday’s top prop, BetPrep recommends taking Andrew Wiggins of the Warriors to go Over 14.5 points in Game 5 against Denver.

The rationale for this Best Bets selection:

• Wiggins has scored 15-plus points in six of his last seven home games.
• Across those last seven home games, Wiggins is averaging 17 points per contest.
• Wiggins has scored 15-plus points in four of his last five games following a Golden State loss.

On top of that, Wiggins has posted 15 or more points in seven of his last nine games, a stretch that dates back to March 30.

You can find Wiggins Over 14.5 points at -130 juice at DraftKings Sportsbook.