Underdog Fantasy NFL Props: Week 16

Cincinnati wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase celebrates a big play.
Image Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Do you feel like a sharp football fan? Does winning money sound appealing to you? Of course! Thankfully, Underdog Fantasy offers sports fans many gaming options such as best ball fantasy drafts and pick ’em NFL props challenges. As for the initial question posed, I’m here to help sharpen your football acumen by utilizing several helpful resources such as BetPrep projections to topple the over/under and rivals picks.

It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:

  • Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
  • Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
  • Go to the Pick’em Games.
  • Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.

Use promo code PROPS for $10 free!
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.

Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL props for the main slate of Week 16.

Joe Burrow OVER 268.5 Passing Yards

Joe Burrow looks to pass in a 2021 road game.
Image Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

In Week 7, Joe Burrow lit the Baltimore Ravens up for 416 passing yards. So, the case is closed for selecting his over. Okay, so it’s not quite that simple. However, that’s a heck of a starting point.

Baltimore is markedly better defending the run than the pass. According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens are fifth in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 29th in pass defense DVOA. In addition, since facing these two foes met earlier in the year, Baltimore’s star cornerback Marlon Humphrey has suffered a season-ending injury. Therefore, if it wasn’t broken for the Bengals earlier this year, I don’t understand why they’d fix it this week.

Also, they’re a pass-happy team by nature. According to Sharp Football Stats, since Week 5, when the offensive scoring margin is between trailing by seven points and leading by seven points, Cincinnati passes at the ninth-highest rate (60% compared to 56% for the league average). Finally, after getting eased back from last year’s season-ending knee injury through the first three games, Burrow has passed for more than 268.5 yards in seven of 11 games. Thus, I love his over on Underdog Fantasy for Sunday’s slate.

Ja’Marr Chase OVER 63.5 Receiving Yards

Ja'Marr Chase had 201 yards and 1 TD receiving in the Bengals' win over the Ravens.
Image Credit: Sam Greene / USA TODAY NETWORK

Ja’Marr Chase also barbecued the Ravens earlier this year. He clowned them for an eye-popping 201 receiving yards, more than tripling this week’s yardage prop. But, of course, you’d think the Ravens might be considering double-teaming him after getting eviscerated in the first game. If you assumed that, you’d be wrong.

Instead, Chase won’t face double-teams; he’ll have one of the most advantageous matchups on the slate. According to Pro Football Focus’s wide receiver versus cornerback matchup tool, Chase has the ninth-largest advantage this week.

Unfortunately, the stud rookie receiver has had some stinkers this year, clearing 63.5 receiving yards in only one of his last seven games since doing so in six of his first seven. Still, he’s tailor-made to thrash the Ravens.

According to Sharp Football Stats, the Ravens allow the second-highest average explosive pass rate (12%). Meanwhile, per Sports Info Solutions, Chase has the 17th-deepest average depth of target (13.1 yards). As a result, he’s perfectly equipped to torch the Ravens and Bet Prep projects Chase for 67.05 receiving yards. So, let’s enjoy the correlation of using Burow and Chase together and watch the duo make sweet music against Baltimore’s leaky pass defense.

Jerry Jeudy UNDER 43.5 Receiving Yards

Wide receiver Jerry Jeudy #10 of the Denver Broncos catches a pass during the second half against the Philadelphia Eagles at Empower Field at Mile High on November 14, 2021 in Denver, Colorado.
Image Credit: Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

It’s been a crummy sophomore season for Jerry Jeudy. Unfortunately, a quarterback switch to last year’s starter, Drew Lock, isn’t likely the magic elixir to cure what ails Jeudy. Lock has attempted 19 passes in two games played with Jeudy this year. The erratic quarterback has targeted Jeudy only three times (15.8% target share), completing one pass for 12 yards. Jeudy’s underwhelming target total has been just third on Lock’s passes, trailing Noah Fant’s five and Tim Patrick’s nine.

Last year, Lock targeted Jeudy a team-high 93 times on 443 pass attempts. Sadly, Lock was wildly inaccurate, completing only 41 passes to Jeudy for 678 yards. In other words, the two haven’t had great chemistry.

The Denver Broncos’ offensive tendencies also hinder Jeudy’s ability to pile up receiving yards. The game’s spread is small, and the Broncos pass at only a 56% clip when the offensive scoring margin is between trailing by seven points and leading by seven points, one percent below the league average. Finally, according to Football Outsiders, the Broncos play at the eighth-slowest situation neutral pace. As a result, the deck is stacked against Jeudy, and I’ll gleefully select his under.